Download MBA Finance (Master of Business Administration) 4th Semester Global Financial Markets
Lesson - 1
Globalization of Trade
Objectives of the Lesson:
After studying this unit you should able to:
Meaning of globalization
Explain the Liberalized Foreign Investment Policy
Discuss the New Global Economic War
Explain the various International Financial Institution / Development
Banks involved in global trade
Structure of the Lesson:
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Liberalized Foreign Investment Policy
1.2 New Global Economic War
1.3 International Financial Institution / Development Banks
1.3.1 International Monetary Fund (IMF)
1.3.2 The International Finance Corporation (IFC)
1.3.3 The World Bank
1. 3. 4 The World Bank Groups
1.3.5 Asian Development Bank
1.0 Introduction
Globalization of trade implies `universalisation of the process of
trade'. In 1990, increased openness to international trade, under such
headings as, outward orientation or trade liberalization has been
advocated as an engine of economic growth and a road to
development. The marginalization of Indian economy together with
many other factors resulted in a severe balance of payment crisis. The
foreign exchange reserves fell rapidly to less than three weeks of our
imports needs. In order to overcome this situation, and boost up
exports, the Government initiated steps for the dismantling of
restrictive policy instruments through reforms m trade, tariff, and
exchange rate policies.
After examining the list of imports and exports, the following
corrections were made: gradual withdrawal of many of the quantitative
restrictions on imports and exports, shifting of a significant number of
items outside the purview of import licensing, considerable reduction
in the level of tariff rates, Exim scrip`s devaluation of rupee, partial
and later on full convertibility of rupee etc.
1.1 Liberalized Foreign Investment Policy
In June 1991, Indian government initiated programme of macro
economic stabilization and structural adjustment supported by IMF
and the World Bank. As part of this programme a new industrial policy was
announced on July 24, 1991 in the Parliament, which has started the
process of full-scale liberalization and intensified the process of integration
of India with the global economy.
A Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), authorized to
provide a single window clearance as been set up. The existing
companies are allowed to raise foreign equity levels to 51 per cent for
proposed expansions in priority industries. The use of foreign brand
names for goods manufactured by domestic industry, which was
restricted, has also been liberalized. India became a signatory to the
convention of MIGA for protection of foreign investments.
Companies with more than 40 per cent of foreign equity are
now treated on par with fully Indian owned companies. New sectors
such as mining, banking, telecommunications, high-way construction,
and management have been thrown Open to private, including foreign
owned companies. The investment policy and the subsequent policy
amendments have liberalized the industrial policy regime in the
country especially, as it applies to foreign direct investment beyond
recognition.
1.2 New Global Economic War
After the Second War and the IMF par value system came into
existence, we became part of the new world system. Countries had
exchange control and various sorts of trade restrictions. It was after the
Seventies that gradually a scheme of flexible exchange rates came into
existence among leading developed countries. Gradually the developed
countries started freeing their exchange rates and also moved towards
their system off free trade.
The World Trade Organization, of which we are a member, is
now introducing all over the world a free trade system. After the
advent of Economic Reforms from 1991-1992, we have moved over to
currency, convertibility on current account. The importance of the
World Bank as financier has diminished considerably. The world is
now dependant on private capital imports. Even the role of the IMF
has diminished with most countries adopting currency convertibility.
Capital flows are moving on a large scale dependent on incentives.
Most countries have lifted trade barriers and reduced import duties.
The WTO is introducing system in which domestic subsidies
have to be removed and uniform and low import duties have now to
become the standard. There is no place for tariff barriers and non-tariff
barriers are also now getting lifted. The world`s industries are now
organized largely in terms of multinational corporations whose
operations transcend many countries. International demonstration
effects are working powerfully in determining the living styles in all
countries.
1.3 International Financial Institution / Development Banks
1.3.1 International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This international monetary institution was established by 44
nations under his Bretton Woods Agreement of July 1944. The main
aim was to remove his economic failures of 1920s and 1930s. The
attempts of many countries to return to old gold system after world war
failed miserably. The world suppression of the thirties forced every
country to abandon gold standard. This led to the adoption of purely
nationalistic policies whereby almost every country imposed trade
Restrictions, exchange control, and resorted to exchange depreciation in
order to encourage its exports. This will lead to further spread of
depression. It was against this background that 44 nations assembled at the
United Nations monetary and financial conference at Breton woods,
New Hampshire (USA) from 1st July to 22nd July 1944. Thus the IMF
was established to promote economic and financial co-operation among
the members in order to facilitate expansion and balanced growth of
world trade. It started functioning from 1st march 1947.
The fundamental purpose and objectives of the fund had been said
down in Article of the original Articles of agreement and they have
been upheld in the two amendments that were made in 1969 and 1978 to
its basic charter. They provide the framework within which the fund
functions they are as under:
1. To promote the international monetary cooperation through a permanent
institution. This can provide the machinery for consultation and collaboration
in the international monetary problems.
2. To facilitate the expansion and balanced growth, of international
trade and to contribute promotion and maintenance of high levels of
employment and real income and to the development of the
productive resources of all members.
3. To promote exchange stability, to maintain orderly exchange
arrangements among members, and to avoid competitive
exchange, depreciation.
4. To assist in the establishment of a multilateral system of
payments in respect of current transactions between members and in
the elimination of foreign exchange restrictions.
5. To give confidence to members by making the general resources of
the fund temporarily available to them under adequate safeguards
thus, providing them with opportunity to correct adjustment in
their balance of payments without resorting to measures destructive
to national or international prosperity.
Thus the role of IMF is mainly Two Fold: It is an organization
to monitor the proper conduct of International monetary system
second.
IMF can by way of borrowing it can supplement its own resources. In
the year 1962 a significant achievement can be made by way of entering into
general Arrangement to borrow. Under this agreement ten industrialized
countries agreed to send to IMF their own currencies up to the limit agreed.
The ten countries known as group of 10 countries include Belgium, Canada,
France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, U. K, and U. S. It
can borrow under this arrangement only when the funds are needed for a
participant in the agreement was only four years. It was subsequently received
periodically and the latest reward was made in 1984 in an expanded form.
Switzerland also joined the arrangement with the group of so. The total
commitment by these countries increased to USD 17.65 billion.
It provides temporary assistance to members to tide over the balance
of payments deficits. When the country requires foreign exchange, it tenders
its own currency t the IMF and gets the required foreign exchange. This is
lower as Drawings from the ISSF. When the Balance of Payment position
improves, it should repurchase its currency from the IMF and repay the
foreign exchange.
Compensatory financing facility was introduced in 1963 to provide
reserves to countries that are heavily dependent on the export of primary
products. It main purpose is to provide the needed foreign exchange to a
country experiencing balance of payment deficit due to a temporary export
shortfall caused by circumstances beyond the countries control. Under this
scheme, funds equivalent to 100% of its quota can be draw by a country in
addition to those available under the franche policies. A country need not
exhaust its reserves franchise before making use of the compensatory
financing facility. But it most agrees to co-operate with the IMF in working
out appropriate solutions to its Balance of payments problems.
Buffer stock financing was created in 1969 for financing commodity
buffer stock by member countries the facility is equivalent to 30 percent of the
Borrowing members quota. Repurchases are made in 3 1/4 to 5 years. But the
member is expected to co-operate with the fund in establishing commodity
prices within the country
The extended fund facility is another specialized facility which was
created in 1974. It is based on performance criteria and drawing instilments, it
is availed by developing countries.
The supplementary financing facility was established in 1977 to
provide supplementary financing under extended or stand by arrangements to
member countries to need serious balance of payments deficits that are large
in relation to their economics and their quotas. This facility has been extended
to low income developing member countries of the fund. To reduce the cost
of borrowing under this scheme to such countries, the fund established
subsidy account in 1980 through which it makes subsidy payments to
borrower countries.
Structural adjustment facility was set up made 1986 to provide
confessional adjustment to the poorer developing countries. Loans are granted
to them to solve balance of payments problems and to carry out medium term
macro economic and structural adjustment programmes. Enhanced Structural
Adjustment Facility was created in 1987 with SDR 6 billion of resources for
the medium term financing needs of low income countries. Disbursements
under this scheme are semi annual instead of annual.
Compensatory and contingency financing facility was created in 1988
to provide timely help for temporary short falls or excesses in cereal import
cost due to facers beyond the control of members and contingency, financing
to help a member to maintain the memorandum of fund supported adjustment
programmes in the face of external shocks on account of factors beyond its
control. It replaces the compensatory financing facility for export fluctuations
of 1963 and facility for financing fluctuations in the cost of cereal imports of
1981. In 1990, the fund introduced an important element into CCFF for a
temporary period up to the end of 1991 to help members overcome the Gulf
war crisis.
The most important feature of IMF system as original y conceived
was the exchange rate exchange rate arrangement of its member countries.
The original aim of IMF incorporate the feature of the gold exchange standard
basic structure of exchange rates, with flexibility built into it to a certain
extent. One or two major countries remain on gold standard and their
currencies their currencies are convertible into gold. Other countries make
their currencies convertible in to the currency which remain on gold standard.
The same arrangement was retained in the IMF dollar taking the place of the
convertible an account of the functioning of exchange. The
IMF
has
performed well as an international monetary institution. It has been supplying
different currencies to different countries for making adjustments in their
balance of payments over a long period. Both the developed and developing
countries have made extensive use of its resources. It has tried to solve the
problem of international liquidity by making suitable amendments to its
Articles of agreements. It has this proved its flexibility by moving with the
changed international economic conditions. But it can not be said that it has
been our overal success in fulfilling its objectives. Some of its criticisms are
discussed as under:
1. The fund has been conservative, laid down stringent conditions for lending
with high interest rates.
2. It has developed conditionality practice over the last three decade.
3. It has been playing only a secondary role rather than the central role in
international monetary relations. It does not provide facilities for short term
credit arrangements.
4. The IMF has enough resources for the immediate future. But these are not
sufficient to meet the future needs of its members.
5. The fund also failed in its objectives of promoting exchange stability and to
maintain orderly exchange arrangement among members.
6. One of the objectives of the fund has been to eliminate foreign exchange
restrictions which hamper the growth in world trade. The fund has not been
successful in achieving this objective. The world trade is restricted by a
variety of exchange controls and multiple exchange practice.
7. The fund has been criticized for its discriminatory policies against the
developing countries and in favour of the developed countries. It is therefore,
characterized as "Rich Countries' Club" it is dominated especially by United
States.
1.3.2 The International Finance Corporation (IFC)
IFC was established in 1956 with the specific purpose of extending
the finance support to private enterprises. It is an affiliate of IBRD. The
Articles of agreement of IFC are similar to that of the World Bank. A country
has to be a member of the World Bank in order to join the IFC. In June 1996
it had 181 members. The IFC can borrow from the World Bank four times its
subscribed capital and surpluses. It can also borrow from the International
money market. The purpose of the IFC is to further the economic
development by encouraging growth of private enterprise in member
countries, particularly in the less developed areas, thus supplementing the
activities of the IBRD. The IFC, therefore
1. Invests in private enterprise in member countries, in association with the
private investors and without government guarantee, in cases where sufficient
private capital is not available on reasonable terms.
2. To bring together investment opportunities private capital of both foreign
and domestic origin, and experienced management and.
3. Stimulates condition conducive to his flow of private capital, domestic and
foreign, into productive investment in member countries.
The activities were:
1. Project identification and promotion
2. It helps the member countries to establish, and improve privately owned
development finance companies and other institutions which are themselves
engaged in grounding and financing private enterprise.
3. Encouraging the growth of capital markets in the developing countries.
Thus it does by a) providing support to financial institutions in developing
countries to meet their investment needs and b) by promoting his investors in
developed countries to participate in these capital markets.
4. Giving advice and technical counsel to developing countries in measure
that will create a climate conducive to growth of private investment.
The IFC had a slow beginning and much of its assistance was
concentrated in Latin and Central American Countries. But in recent years it
has diversified its area of operations and many developing countries stand
benefited. India has also received substantial assistance from IFC.
1.3.3 The World Bank
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)
or the World Bank was established in 1945 under Bretton Woods Agreement
of 1944 to assist in bringing about a smooth transition from a War time to
peace time economy. It is a sister concern of the international monetary fund.
The Functions of IBRD are:
1. To assist in the reconstruction and development of territories of its
members by facilitating the investment of capital for productive purpose, and
the encouragement of the development of productive facilities and resources
in less developed countries.
2. To promote private foreign investment by means of guarantees on
participation in loans and other investments made by private sectors, and
when capital is not available at reasonable terms, to supplement private
investment by providing finance for productive purpose out of its own
resources of from borrowed funds.
3. Prerequisite to the long range balanced growth of international
trade and the maintenance of equilibrium in the Balance of Payments of
member countries by encouraging international investment for the
development of their productive resources. There by assisting in raising
productivity, his standard of living our conditions of workers in their
territories.
4. To arrange the loans made or guaranteed by it in relation to
international loans through other channels so that more useful and urgent.
Shall and large projects are dealt with first.
The Bank can make or facilitate loans in any of the following ways.
1. By making or participating in direct loans out of it`s our funds.
2. By making or participating in direct loans out of funds raised in the market
of a member or otherwise borrowed by the Bank; and
3. By guaranteeing in whole or part loans made by private investors through
the usual investment channels.
In short, the Bank may make loans directly to member countries or it
may guarantee loans granted to member countries. The Bank normally makes
loans for productive purposes like agriculture and rural development, power,
industry, transport etc. The total amount of loan sanctioned by his Bank
should not need 100% of its total subscribed capital and surplus. The banks
adopt the following policies in respect of its loans and guarantees.
1. All loans are made to Governments or they must by guaranteed by
governments.
2. Repayment is to be made within 10 to 35 years.
3. Loans are made only in circumstances in which other sources are not
reading available.
4. Investigation is made of his probability of repayment considering both the
soundness of the project and the financial responsibility of his Government.
5. Sufficient surveillance is maintained by the bank over his carrying out of
the project to assure that of is relatively well executed and managed.
6. Loans are sanctioned on economic and not political consideration.
7. The loan is meant to finance the foreign exchange requirements of specific
projects; normally the borrowing country should mobilize its domestic
resources.
Two aspects of lending activities of the bank deserve to be high
lighted. First since the bank has to finance high priority productive sectors of
economics and determine "creditworthiness" of the borrowers. The banks
comprehensive and limited pre investment surveys, which are financed by his
bank, have created a situation where the head quarters of the bank has become
a "monitoring" centre of the economics of the borrowing countries. Secondly
banks dependence for resources on capital markets of the world influences its
economic and social philosophy which is based on the doctrine of free
enterprise.
The activities are:
1. Project identification and promotion
2. It helps the member countries to establish, and improve privately owned
development finance companies and other institutions which are themselves
engaged in grounding and financing private enterprise.
3. Encouraging the growth of capital markets in the developing countries.
Thus it does by:
a) Providing support to financial institutions in developing countries to meet
their investment needs and
b) By promoting investors in developed countries to participate in these
capital markets.
4. Giving advice and technical counsel to developing countries in measure
that will create a climate conducive to growth of private investment.
1. 3. 4 The World Bank Groups
The World Bank has at present three affiliates. The International
Development Association, the International Finance Corporation, and the
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. These are discussed below:
The International Development Association
It is the "soft loan window" of IBRD which was established in September,
1960. It is an affiliate of World Bank. The president of the World Bank is its
head. The main objectives of the IDA are two fold:
1. To provide assistance for poverty alleviation to the world's poorest
countries.
2. To provide concessional financial assistance and macro economic
management services to the poorest countries so as to raise their standard of
living. There relate to human resource development including population
control development of health, nutrition and education for the overall
objectives or removing poverty.
The finance may be made available to the member governments or to
the private enterprise. Advances to private enterprises may be made with out
government guarantees. The credit is interest free. Only a small service charge
of 0.75% per annum is payable on the amount with drawn and outstanding to
cover administrative expenses. Repayment period is long extending over 50
years. There is an initial moratorium for 10 years and the amount borrowed is
repayable in the next 40 years. IDA finances not only the foreign exchange
component but also a part of domestic cost. The credit can also be repaid in
the local currencies of borrowing countries. Thus, the repayment of loan does
not burden the balance of payments of the country. IDA loans are known as
"credits" which are made to government only. Loans are given for such
projects for which no assistance is provided by the World Bank before
approving credit in special committee of the IDA considers three criteria.
a. Poverty criterion: A country where population pressure is high and
productivity is low, there by leading to a low standard of living of the people.
b. Performance criterion: It relates to past performance in terms of loans
received whether form IDA or the World Bank. It must have been pursuing
macro economic policies and executing projects satisfactorily.
c. Project criterion: The projects for which credits are to be utilized must
yield financial and economic returns to justify their.
On the basis of the above criteria, the IDA sanctions credit for
agriculture, education, health, nutrition water: supply, sewerage etc. such
credits which are known as "soft loans". IDA has been blessing for the
developing countries In keeping with the objectives, most of the assistance
has gone to high development priority projects which could not get finance
form other sources.
International Finance Corporation
The IFC had a slow beginning and much of its assistance was
concentrated in Latin and Central American Countries. But in recent years it
has diversified its area of operations and many developing countries stand
benefited. India has also received substantial assistance from IFC. Right from
the president, ail the senior officers of the World Bank are its officers. Its
annual report forms part of the World Bank report and is submitted
simultaneously.
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
The IBRD has established it`s another affiliate to be known as the
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) carried to give
encouragement for foreign investment in developing countries by issuing
Guarantees against non commercial rises. MIGA provides guarantee to
private investors against four types of non commercial rises;
i. Transfer risk of corporation
ii. Risk of government repudiation of contractual commitments;
iii. Risk of armed conflicts and
iv. Civil unrest.
The very important aim of promoting his new agency is stated to the
declining trend prevailed in capital inflow to developing countries.
1.3.5 Asian Development Bank
This was started in 1966 under the aegis of United Nations economic
commission for Asia and for east. Its membership consists of countries form
Asian region as well as from other regions. There are 47 members of whom
32 countries from Asia-Pacific region and 15 countries are from Europe and
North America.
The functions are:
1. Investment promotion in the ECAFF region of public and private capital
for development purposes.
2. The available resources are utilized for financing the priority those regional
and sub regional and national projects and programmes which will contribute
most effectively to the harmonious economic growth of the region as a whole,
and having special regard to the needs of the smaller or less developed
member countries in the region.
3. Assist members in coordination of their development policies and plans
with a view to achieving better utilization of their resources making their
economies more complimentary, and providing the orderly execution of their
foreign trade, in particular, intra regional trade.
4. It provides technical assistance for preparation financing and execution of
development projects and programmes, including the formulation of specific
proposals.
5. To co-operate with the United Nations and its subsidiary bodies, including,
in particular ECAFE and with public international organizations and other
international institutions as well as national entities whether public or private,
and to interest such institutions and entities in now opportunities for
investment and assistance and undertake such other activities and to provide
such other services as may advance its purpose.
6. It may make to loans to or invest in the project concerned and give
guarantee to loans granted to the projects. It will finance principality specific
projects in his region and also provides programmes, sector and multi
project loans. Most of the loans granted are hand loans or tied loans.
However, loan from special funds set aside by the ADB up to 10% of paid up
capital are granted Tinder soft loans. These soft loans are granted to projects
of high development priority and requiring longer period of repayment with
lower rates of interest.
Asian Development Bank acts as major catalyst in promoting the
development of the most populous and fastest growing region in the world
today. The Bank is also actively expanding its financing activities; with
official as well as commercial and export credit sources. It also enters into
equity investment operations. India is the 2nd largest subscriber after Japan
among the regional members and third largest among all members after Japan
& U. S. A. but it has started to avail loan only recently.
Review questions:
1. Explain the globalization of trade
2. Discuss the recent trends in New Global Economic War
3. Explain the various International Financial Institution /
Development Banks involved in global trade
References:
1. Maurice S "'Dlevi, 'International Financial Management., McGraw-
Hill.
2. C. Jeevanandham, EXCHANGE RATE ARITHMETIC, Sultan
Chand.
3. Apte.P.G. International Financial Management, Tata McGraw Hill
,NewDelhi.
4. Henning, C.N., W.Piggot and W.H.Scott, International Financial
Management, Mc.Graw Hill, International Edition.
Lesson - 2
Globalization and Capital Markets: An Emerging Scenario
Objectives of the Lesson:
After studying this unit you should be able to:
Discus about Globalization of Capital Markets and Financing Mix of
Firms.
Explain the risks of financing internationally.
Know about types of Bonds.
Discuss Emerging Markets for Capital Investment
Discuss the developments in Global Finance, Markets, and Institutions in
the Asian Region
Know the key trends in International Capital Markets
List out important consequences due to the Prevailing Trends in
International Capital Markets
Appreciate role of India in the Global Scenario
Structure of the Lesson:
2.0 Introduction
2.1 Capital Markets Globalization and Financial Mix of Firms
2.2 The Risks involved in raising finance internationally
2.3 Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs)
2.4 Types of Bonds
2.5 Major Bond Markets
2.6 Emerging Markets for Capital Investment
2.7 Developments in Global Finance, Markets, and Institutions in the Asian
Region
2.8 Key Trends in International Capital Markets
2.9 Important consequences due to the Prevailing Trends in International
Capital Markets
2.10 Implications for the Asian region
2. 11 Role of India in the Global Scenario
2.0 Introduction
Globalization of capital markets is one of the most important aspect global
businesses. Capital markets globalization refers to removal of all restrictions
on capital flows. One can export or import capital without restrictions. In a
truly global capital market banks involved in foreign exchange can convert
one currency into another without asking questions. One can maintain foreign
exchange account in one country or another legally. There is absolute freedom
to acquire foreign assets at the official exchange rate since the barriers
between one country and the rest of the world would vanish for all economic
reasons. The phenomenon of global capital market is fallout of the new
emerging trend in borderless world due to the virtual abandonment of trade
and exchange controls in most developing countries which makes capital truly
global in nature. This enables global capital market flow freely to wherever it
can earn the highest reward with commensurate risk.
2.1 Capital Markets Globalization and Financial Mix of Firms
The Globalization of capital markets has two impacts: First a firm
raises its capital, fit the simplest level, access to the world's capital markets
al ows the firm to substitute money raises in foreign countries for money
raised in domestic capital market. There may be number of motives for
making such substitution, the most important being lower cost of foreign
capital and the lower foreign exchange risk. Next is firms that internationalize
their financing strategy have a greater range of opportunities for raising debt
capital. Recess to international capital markets may result into a firm altering
its target capital structure. When a firm gains access to a foreign capital
market where the cost of debt is lower than the cost of debt in the domestic
capital market it is inclined to increase the proportion of debt in its capital
structure.
The capital structure decision has become complicated with the
globalization of capital markets,. The firm must decide where to raise capital
(London, Tokyo, the United States etc,). It should decide the currency in
which to borrow (Pounds, yen or Dollar). It should also decide on a target
debt ratio in the capital structure. Since the decisions are interrelated there is a
difficulty in making these decisions. Proper decision-making procedure
should be adopted in order to arrive at a simultaneous solution to al these
problems identified.
2.2 The Risks involved in raising finance internationally
A company can do international financing by either issuing equity
shares or raising debt in the international capital market. The issue of equity
shares for raising capital does not involve any exchange risk as a company is
not required to return the money procured through the issue of equity capital.
However the same is not true in the case of debt financing. The money raised
through the issue of debt has to be returned in future. Therefore debt financing
poses a risk the degree of which depend upon the fluctuations in the exchange
rates. International borrowings can be broadly categorized into three classes
on the basis of foreign exchange risk involved.
1. Financing in the currency in which cash inflows are expected.
2. Financing in a currency other than that in which cash inflows are expected,
but with cover in the forward or swap market.
3. Financing in currency other than in which cash inflows are expected, but
without forward cover or an appropriate swap
Financing by way of the first two methods avoids foreign exchange
risk. Financing through the third option is risky. While the interest rates and
capital repayments are fixed in foreign currency terms, the amount of home
currency required to serve and repay the debt is not known with certainty due
to the fluctuating exchange rates.
International borrowing is safer when:
(1) Stability in Exchange rates
(2) Inflows are expected in the same currency in which borrowing is effected
and
(3) Cash inflows are expected in a currency other than the currency of
borrowings but a forward cover or an appropriate swap is available.
Globalization of capital markets has led to supply of cross border
equity from the emerging capital markets for cross listing and this in turn has
fostered intense competition in major international exchanges. Firms all over
the world now have broader investor groups and the most commonly used
vehicles for cross listing are American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and
Global Depository Receipts (GDRs).
ADRs are negotiable certificates issued by an American Bank that are
backed by ownership claims on the company`s equity, which trades in the
home market. These are denominated in US dollars and dividends on the
underlying shares are paid in dollars.
Similarly GDRs are traded in
exchanges outside US mainly in the London Stock Exchange.
The international listings can significantly reduce the degree of
segmentation by providing an avenue through which firms and investors can
sidestep some of the restrictions on capital flows that contribute to the
segmentation of international capital markets. The increasing integration of
equity markets across the world made listing of shares on the major world
exchanges a natural choice for companies. Though this process is too costly
because of very heavy legal and accounting fee coupled with the obligation of
reconciling the accounts to international standards, companies perceive great
strategic, financial, and operational benefits through ADR and GDR issues. A
major benefit perceived by the company is savings in the cost of capital as the
market risk gets diversified and is also protected against liquidity of trading in
its shares. The real effect of globalization of Indian Capital markets and cross
listings started only post mid 90s. As of the middle of the year 2001 about 72
companies had issued ADRs and GDRs of which over 30 were cross listings,
which was between the periods 1995 to 2001.
2.3 Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs)
FCCBs are a medium/long term debt instrument carrying a fixed rate
of interest and having an option for conversion into fixed number of shares of
the issuing company. If the issuer company desires, the issue of such bonds
may carry two options:
(a) Cal option:
Where the terms of the issue of the bonds contain a provision for call
option, the issuer company has the option of calling (buying) the bonds for
redemption before the date of maturity of the bonds. Where the share prices of
the issuer company have appreciated substantially, i.e. for in excess of the
redemption value of the bonds, the issuer company can exercise this option.
(b) Put Option
Provision of put option gives the holder of bonds a right to put (sel )
his bonds back to the issuer company at a predetermined price and date.
2.4 Types of Bonds
A number of variations of FCCBs have evolved in past few years.
They are as follows:
Deep Discount Convertible
Such bond is usually issued at a price which is 70 to 80 per cent of its
face value and the initial conversion price and the coupon rate level are lower
than that of a conventional Euro Bond, since there are no interest payments.
The maturity period in some cases may extend even up to 25 years.
Zero Coupon Convertible bonds
Zero coupon convertible bonds have been mainly used in U.S.
markets. These bonds are Zero Coupon securities issued at deep discounts to
par value. Thus, the investor's return is the accretion to par value over the life
of the instrument. The issuer escapes the periodic interest payments in
gestation period of the project and yet is allowed to deduct the implied interest
from taxable income.
Bul dog Bonds
This is an issue in sterling in the domestic Uk market by a non-UK
entity.
Vankee Bonds
Vankee Bonds are domestic US dollars issue, aimed at the US
investor made by non-US entity.
Samurai Bonds
Samurai Bonds are long term, domestic yen debt issue targeted at
Japanese investors and mode by a non-Japanese entity.
Bunny Bonds
These bonds permit the investors to reinvest their interest income into
more such bonds with the some terms and conditions. Such an open to invest
interest at the original yield is attractive to long term investors, pension funds,
etc. and the companies find it as a cheap source of finance.
Euro Rupee Bonds
Although these bonds do not exist, several foreign institutions are
considering this instrument as a means for rising finance. Denominated in
Rupees, Euro Rupee Bonds can be listed in Luxembourg. Dividends will be
paid in Rupee and investors will face the risk of currency fluctuation.
Dragon Bond
Dragon Bonds come in dollars, yen, and other currencies to attract the
Russian investors.
Bonds with Equity or Warrants
A derivative of Euro bonds is bonds with Equity Warrants, which are
a combination of debt, with the investor on option on the issuer`s equity. A
warrant is attached to the host bond and entitles the investor to subscribe to the
equity of the issuing company at a predetermined price. The warrant price of
shares is normally 10-15% above the share price at the time bond is issued
and the warrants exercisable on or between specified dates. Warrants are
physically separate from bonds and therefore, can be detached and traded as
securities. Therefore, an investor has the benefit of having two separately
marketable instruments. Based on risk involved yield and the expectations of
both issuer and the lender, there may be structural variations in these
instruments.
Bul -Spread Warrants
These warrants provide an exposure to the investors to underlying
shares between a lower level X and on upper level 'U'. The lower level is set
to provide a return above the dividend yield on the shares. After the maturity
period (which is normally three years) if the share price is below the lower
level X, the investor receives the difference from level 'U' the issuer has to pay
only the amount at level U` In case, the stock is between X and 'U' on
maturity, the issuer has a choice of either paying the cash to the investor or
delivering shares. Such a variation is best suited to companies having low
dividend yield since the lower level is set above the dividend yield on shores.
Money Back Warrants (MBWs)
MBW entitles an investor to receive a certain predetermined sum
from the issuer provided the investor holds the warrant till it matures and it is
not converted into shares. To the investor the cost of doing so is not only the
cash he loses, but also the interest foregone on that sum of money. Therefore
in order to compensate, the companies must offer a higher premium than what
they normally do.
Reset Warrants
The pioneers of issuing such warrant are the Japanese companies.
Reset warrants are suitable for those stock markets where there is tremendous
volatility. If a share has not performed and its market price is below the
exercise price after a couple of years then the exercise option is reset to level
just above the current price; typically 2.5 percent above the prevailing price.
However there is a downward revision, which is deeply pegged at 20 per cent.
Besides the above derivatives, there are a number of instruments in the Euro
bond market. Also there can be number of variations depending upon the
variations in interest rates and/or maturity redemption period.
2.5 Major Bond Markets
The major capital markets where a company can raise funds through
the issue of bonds are:
(1) US capital market
(2) Euro bond market
(3) Japanese bond market and
(4) Medium term notes market
1. US Capital Market
US Capital market is the largest and most liquid capital market in this
world. This enables companies to borrow larger amount of funds at fixed
interest rates with longer maturities. The U.S debt market is predominantly
comprised of large insurance companies, pension funds, fund managers, and
credit corporations. With the historical low interest rates in US as compared to
Asian countries US institutional investors have become more receptive
towards Asian issuers/emerging market economies in order to increase their
yield on investment. There are three ways for an issuer company to raise
funds in US capital market.
(a) Private placement market
(b) The rule 144-A market (Quasi Public Market) and
(c) The Vankee bond market (Public market).
2. Euro Bond Market
Euro bond market is another major source of foreign capita through
the issue of debt instruments. Recent years have shown tremendous growth in
the Euro bond market due to low interest rates which has attracted fixed
income investors to look beyond traditional investment grade credit to lower
quality credit in order to enhance yield.
3. Japanese Bond Market
There has been a significant growth in the Japanese Bond Market due
to attractive interest rates on yens. Companies may consider issue of Samurai
Bond in Japanese bond Market in order to diversify the investor`s base.
However, growth of the Samurai market is limited due to appreciation of Yen
as compared to other currencies.
4. Medium Term Notes Market
Medium Term Notes (MTNs) are debt instrument offered on a
continuous basis in a broad range of maturity primarily through lead
managers/managers. MTNs provide issuers with more flexibility then straight
Euro bonds by allotting them to access subject to market demand, the
international capital market on a continuous basis with multiple issues of
varying face amounts and tenors.
2.6 Emerging Markets for Capital Investment
Of late emerging markets have become a buzzword among the
international investors for reaping greatest potential rewards which would be
impossible if they stayed put in their affluent hinterlands. The term emerging
markets (EMs) is a collective reference to the stock markets of the developing
nations. IFC (International Finance Corporation) has listed 35 countries as
emerging markets. The first place in terms of GDP/Capita is occupied by
Greece and India ranks poor 20th in this list of 20 countries. In terms of
capitalization Mexico ranks first and 20th rank is secured by Zimbabwe. India
occupies fifth position in capitalization. In term of listed companies India
occupies the top most position. India has largest number of stock exchanges
among the emerging markets. India has a share of 46 per cent of the total
companies in the emerging markets and 21 per cent of the total global listed
companies. A question, which overpowers a discerning mind, is why the
international investors are looking towards emerging markets for investing
their funds instead of established markets like US? Three reasons can be
given to answer this question.
First, the average total return of EMs has outstripped those of
developed markets. Investble total return index computed by the IFC which
measures the total return for each country based on those stock available to
foreign investors shows that return on investment in IFC composite of EMs is
61.64 per cent higher than the return on investment in US market over the
years. The institutional investors like the corporate pension funds; insurance
companies and international mutual funds are looking towards investments in
GMs to magnify their earnings.
Secondly the emerging markets provide excellent scope for
diversification, as their correlation with the US and other developed markets is
often exceptionally low. The EMs has low correlations not only with the
developed markets, but also with each other. The fact that EMs (individually
and as a group) has low correlations with the developed markets implies that
there is an opportunity for diversification for the global investor. Thirdly as
the EMs are generally inefficient markets, the opportunity of finding bargain
stocks increase for the highly knowledgeable money managers.
It is comparatively easier to beat the markets in the EMs as compared
to developed markets. In developed markets more arcane ones with mixed
results have supplemented the traditional tools of fundamental and Technical
Analysis. For example, there are computer programmes called Neutral
Networks, which seek to identify underlying general patterns in share price
movements to obtain clues about future prices. The evidence so for is
inconclusive. The problem may be that such tools are quickly adopted by a
large number of players so that they soon become history. In such a situation
the investors are attracted by what they consider to be the relatively inefficient
markets of developing countries. Perhaps their tools of analysis will yield
good results there.
Emerging market equities had their best performing year ever in 1993
as measured by IFC benchmark indices. Even in the latter part of 1993 price a
gains in many EMs were on an upswing while valuation measures were
higher, Added to this fall in the real interest rotes in US coupled with a strong
growth in the developing world spurred on the demand for emerging market
equities which pushed market beyond their fundamental values.
Considered on the risk from EMs are extremely risky when compared
with developed markets. Apart from the obvious threats (political instability,
insider trading and others), there are a number of possible reasons why these
markets are extremely volatile. First they tend to be fairly concentrated; the
larger stocks have a high proportion of the overall capitalization. As a result,
there are fewer opportunities for diversification, and returns of these stocks
dominate overall market return. Second, unlike the developed markets, which
tend to have forces that affect diverse sectors of the economy differently, the
EMs tend to have a strong market related force that affects al stocks within a
market. This widespread effect tends to accelerate volatility.
It is true that emerging markets are extremely risky taken
individually, but considered together EMs provide a good scope for
diversification as these markets have low correlations not only with each
other, but also with the developed markets. It is a general y accepted fact that
investment in unrelated markets reduces the degree of risk.
2.7 Developments in Global Finance, Markets, and Institutions in the
Asian Region
Three interrelated developments in global capital markets are:
the sustained rise in gross capital flows relative to net flows;
the increasing importance of securitized forms of capital flows; and
the growing concentration of financial institutions and financial markets.
Taken together these trends may signal what some others have
referred to as a quiet opening` of the capital account of the balance of
payments, which is resulting in the development, strengthening and growing
integration of domestic financial systems within the international financial
system. Finance is being rationalized across national borders, resulting in a
breakdown in many countries in the distinction between onshore and offshore
finance. It is particularly evident and most advanced in the wholesale side of
the financial industry, and is becoming increasingly apparent in the retail side
as well.
Taken together these three effects have contributed to a sharp rise in
volatility ? in both capital flows and asset prices ? which may be
characterized as periods of turbulence interspersed with periods of relative
tranquility. Investor behaviour (the supply of international capital) is a critical
reason behind the rise in volatility. These broad trends have some important
implications for the ongoing development of capital markets and institutions,
including those in Asia.
2.8 Key Trends in International Capital Markets
The sharp rise in gross capital flows
The evidence points to an acceleration of capital account opening in
most regions of the world since the late 1980s. The effects of opening in the
formal sense of liberalizing transaction taxes and regulatory and legal
restrictions on capital movements have been augmented by the liberalization
of domestic financial sectors and by technologically induced reductions in
transaction costs. This opening has resulted in a sharp rise in gross capital
movements relative to net capital movements.
The rise in securitised forms of capital
International capital flows have increasingly been in a securitised
form. At a global level, direct intermediation through bonds and equities has
begun to dominate more traditional forms of capital, such as syndicated bank
lending and foreign direct investment.
The current trend to securitisation of capital flows to emerging
markets possibly had its origins in the global debt crisis of the 1980s. At that
time private capital movements primarily involved syndicated bank credit.
Following the extensive losses that many of the large international banks
sustained during this period, there was a marked reluctance on their part to
extend sovereign credit in the form of syndicated loans. Their espoused
strategy has been to focus on so-cal ed bankable business, in the form of trade
credit or loans for specific commercial purposes with clearly identifiable cash
flows and/or suitable collateral. The debt and debt-service reduction
agreements at the end of the decade that resulted in the issuance of tradable,
col ateral-backed Brady bonds in exchange for outstanding loans provided the
basis on which emerging market bonds have been erected. Impetus also came
from the accelerating trend in mature markets toward nonbank forms of
financial intermediation.
In the United States and Europe, the larger internationally active
banks have sought to diversify into higher margin, fee-generating activities in
an attempt to raise their return on equity. It is worth noting that this trend has
been further stimulated recently by the rapid expansion of Euro-area securities
markets, which has accelerated the shift by European banks into wholesale
finance. As noted below, the expansion of Euro-securities markets has
provided new opportunities for emerging market finance. While bank lending
is still the dominant form of corporate finance in Europe, the direction of the
trend seems clear enough. Similarly, in Japan, it is a reasonable conjecture that
restructuring of the banking system will lead in time to a marked increase in
directly intermediated finance.
The consolidation of financial institutions
The past few years have witnessed an acceleration of consolidation
among financial institutions in mature markets and a similar trend is now
gathering momentum in emerging market countries. Consolidation has been
the subject of a detailed G-10 study of developments in mature markets
(including the G-10 countries, Australia and Spain). The main forces driving
consolidation include: attempts to reap economies of scale and scope (a search
for cost reductions driven by competitive pressures on margins and
shareholder pressure for performance); improvements in information
technology, as well as the onset of e-commerce and the spread of e-banking;
and deregulation, particularly that which is encouraging the spread of
universal banking. Most merger and acquisition activity during the past
decade has involved the banking sector, and has resulted in the creation of
large and complex financial institutions (LCFIs).
Consolidation is also affecting securities exchanges. In addition to the
effect of technology on trading, the main causal factors are the liberalization
of commissions, reduction in barriers to foreign entry, removal of antiquated
trading rules and changes to governance structures. In many countries, the
rapid growth and consolidation of private pension funds has been a major
factor driving financial sector consolidation.
2.9 Important consequences due to the Prevailing Trends in
International Capital Markets
Volatility
One of the main consequences of the intersection of these three trends has
been periods of extreme turbulence in international capital flows, followed by
periods of relative tranquility. This volatility is evident both in the flows
themselves and in the prices (or spreads) at which they are transacted.
Interestingly, volatility is concentrated in portfolio flows, both bond and
equity, and is much less evident in more traditional forms of capital flows
such as foreign direct investment and syndicated credit; although in the case
of foreign direct investment, there is an important cyclical element connected
to the growth cycle in mature economies
The market for emerging market dollar bonds has been a particularly
unstable component of international portfolio capital flows, and has been
characterized by repeated periods when access by emerging market borrowers
has been effectively closed, followed by periods of robust issuance. Indeed,
the on-off nature of access by emerging markets appears to have become a
key characteristic of international financial markets. IMF analysts have
identified 11 periods since 1993 when closure` has occurred, including
several episodes during 2000?01 (IMF 2001a: 19?20). From mid-August and
the most recent turbulence in Argentina (not to mention the events of
September 11 until the end of November), borrowing spreads have widened
for many countries and the market was effectively closed again.
The IMF analysis shows that these closures typically have been for
relatively short periods, the longest to date having occurred when the Russian
debt crisis and the problems at Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)
coincided in August/September 1998. That closure lasted for approximately
three months. Market closures appear to coincide with periods when spreads
widen sharply and volatility increases. Re-opening of markets seems to take
place only after volatility dissipates.
Another volatility-related feature of the market for emerging market
bonds has been the extent of contagion from one country to another, with
events in one country often triggering a flight from other emerging markets
without any clear economic rationale. Contagious movements were most
notable during the Asian debt crisis in 1997. While still a concern in emerging
markets, contagion during the past 12 months has been less of a factor than
previously. As a final point, it is worth noting that volatility has not been
confined to emerging market bonds but has also, and this is of relevance to the
Asian region, affected securities markets.
Coincident with volatility in the NASDAQ market, there has been a
sharp decline in issuance of shares in the technology, media, and
telecommunications (TMT) sectors, with corporations having fallen back on
syndicated credit as a source of finance. It is somewhat ironic that syndicated
credit now appears to be acting as a stabilizing force in international capital
markets, given its previous role in triggering the debt crisis of the 1980s when
it was the dominant form of private capital flow.
Emphasis on the supply of capital
In seeking to explain the rise in volatility, it is necessary to discuss about the
increase in gross capital flows relative to net flows. Capital flows have
traditionally focused on the demand side` of emerging market financing by
examining current account balances, which are equal to the net external
financing needs of countries, and then seeking to identify ways in which these
financing needs could be met and on what terms. However, this approach
ignores trends in capital flows into and out of the major advanced economies,
which are the source of most cross-border capital and the main reason why
gross flows have risen so dramatically relative to net flows. These flows are
typically in a securitized form and, as such, are susceptible to trading in active
secondary markets. By one estimate, investors in the mature markets of
Europe, the United States and Japan have been accumulating securities issued
outside their own countries at the rate of about US$1 trillion a year (Smith
2000). This means that international capital flows are increasingly determined
by global asset-al ocation decisions made by globally active financial
institutions in major industrialized countries. These institutions are becoming
increasingly concentrated as a result of the global trend toward consolidation.
Understanding capital movements increasingly requires an analysis and
understanding of the underlying investor base.
A case in point relates to the on-off nature of the market for emerging
market dol ar denominated bonds. The dedicated investor base for emerging
market securities has contracted in recent years, reflecting the closure of
several large hedge funds, the orientation of other hedge funds toward mature
market investments and reductions in the capital allocated to support the
activities of the proprietary trading desks of some international investment
banks. Moreover, the current investor base is dominated by crossover`
investors; that is, investors who invest short-term and opportunistically in the
asset class and whose benchmark portfolio typically has a zero weight on
emerging market securities. The holdings of emerging market securities by a
particular crossover investor are a small share of the investor`s total portfolio
and thus can be liquidated quickly without major impact on its overall value;
however, the aggregate impact in the emerging debt market of crossover
investors as a group reacting to a specific event, making an exogenous shift in
risk appetite or rebalancing portfolios in response to losses or gains elsewhere,
can be overwhelming. These developments suggest that, unless the dedicated
investor base expands significantly, on-off market access is likely to be a
regular feature of emerging market finance.
Other examples of the importance of the investor base, and the extent
to which developments in mature financial markets impact on the issuance of
emerging market securities, have arisen because of the creation of a pan-
European debt market since the inception of the euro, and the growth of
European pension funds. These events have resulted in the establishment of a
market for euro-denominated emerging market debt, at both the retail and
institutional level.
The effect has been to mitigate to a degree the access problems
associated with the on-off nature of the dollar-denominated market. These
markets (along with a market for yen-denominated issuance) are
demonstrably less volatile than the dollar market, and have tended to remain
open when the dollar market has closed. Thus, they have become an
alternative source of funds, with a more stable investor base that appears to be
well worth the time and effort of emerging market countries to cultivate.
2.10 Implications for the Asian region
The consolidation occurring in the banking and financial sectors is a
worldwide trend that has gathered momentum in recent years. Initially largely
a banking sector phenomenon, consolidation has increasingly also affected the
nonbank financial sector and has resulted in the establishment of large and
complex financial institutions. In recent years, the trend has begun to gather
pace in emerging market financial systems, including those in Asian
countries. In addition to the main factors that are driving consolidation in
mature markets are improvements in information technology, the progressive
deregulation of the financial sector and competitive pressures that have come
about as a result of reduced margins in traditional banking business the need
to restructure banking systems in the wake of a financial crisis has been an
additional factor in emerging markets. Some Asian financial crisis countries
appear to be entering a second round of banking and financial sector
restructuring where further consolidation and the formation of financial
holding companies will play a major role.
A distinguishing feature of consolidation in emerging markets is that
it has been a cross border phenomenon that has resulted in substantial foreign
penetration of domestic financial systems. Indeed, col eagues in the IMF refer
to a staggering increase` in foreign ownership and control of domestic banks
in emerging markets, especially in Latin America and emerging Europe, but
also to a lesser degree in Asia. Note, too, that foreign penetration can be
indirect and more subtle than the ownership/control connection. The recent
triennial survey of foreign exchange and derivative markets coordinated by
the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), for example, revealed that
growing volumes traded in the Australian foreign exchange market have a
foreign-induced component, with 65 per cent of transactions now occurring
between resident dealers and overseas banks, up from 50 per cent in the
preceding survey (RBA 2001).
As to the consequences for the Asian region, the trend to further
consolidation seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future. In addition
to those countries where banking systems are in need of further strengthening
and restructuring, there is also a case for consolidation in the Hong Kong and
Singapore banking systems, which are increasingly specializing in asset
management and unit trusts/mutual funds with the aim of reaping economies
of scale and scope.
As to the mature markets in the region, both Australia and Japan were
participants in the G-10 study of consolidation and its conclusions presumably
apply broadly to them. With the main causal forces still operative in these
countries, it seems likely that further consolidation will be in order. For the
region as a whole, just how much further foreign penetration will proceed will
depend on whether countries are prepared to regard financial services as just
another industry` that can be allowed to find the least costly, most robust way
to provide its product. New Zealand may well be the prototype or limiting
case, with foreign control rising to 100 per cent of the banking system. At the
same, it is interesting to note that there are forces at play in New Zealand that
may result in some rollback of foreign ownership and control.
The premium on liquidity
From the perspective of an investor, the appeal of securitized forms of
investment rests in part on the liquidity of the investment, which depends on
the possibility of continuous valuation of the security and the ability to adjust
positions quickly in secondary markets without undue impact on market
price. Order-driven markets, such as stock exchanges, need to concentrate
trading in order to optimize liquidity; dealer markets, which are the typical
form of bond markets, require well-capitalized market-makers capable of
position-taking in size to provide the necessary liquidity and depth. From the
perspective of the issuer, deep and liquid markets are needed to optimize
placing power and thereby minimize issuance costs and risks. As an
increasing share of international capital movement takes a securitized form,
the need increases for sizeable financial institutions that are prepared to
dedicate a substantial capital base to the market-making function. Market-
makers in turn need access to wel -capitalized, highly liquid banks as a form
of support to the financial infrastructure. To provide some idea of the
importance and potential scale of needed market-making capacity, it is
instructive to look as a benchmark at the market for internationally traded
foreign exchange, which is probably the most liquid and deep market in the
world. There, according to the just released BIS-coordinated triennial survey,
fully 60 per cent of transactions are between dealers.
The problem for emerging markets that rely on securitised flows of
capital, including those in the Asian region, is that the institutional capital
required to support liquid secondary markets is not always available and,
indeed, may be shrinking. In some instances, hedge funds have closed which,
in the past, had been active players in emerging market instruments, while
others have diverted their activities to mature markets. Proprietary trading
desks in some major international investment banks have reduced the scale of
their operations. Inadequate market-making capacity inevitably contributes to
a further rise in volatility, which further reinforces the on-off nature of these
markets. Not only does this increase the risk to countries of a reliance on
securitized forms of capital, but it also establishes the dynamics of a vicious
circle by providing a motivation for existing market-makers to further reduce
their exposure to market making.
Intense competition between markets
The past decade has seen a major change in the securities trading
industry, driven partly by rapid technological innovation and the globalization
of finance. One effect has been a significant decline in trading costs ? which
has reduced the costs of raising equity capital and has provided an incentive to
shift issuance and trading activity to lower-cost centres. This process has put
immense pressure on exchanges in emerging markets and smaller mature
markets to consolidate liberalize access and deregulate brokerage
commissions to maintain competitiveness. The need to concentrate trading
activity in order to achieve the necessary depth and liquidity has only added to
the intensity of competition. In addition to providing pressure to integrate
exchanges within national markets, these forces also create an incentive for
cross-border alliances among exchanges and the formation of regional
markets. The effects of these forces have been particularly evident in Asian
countries, where stock and derivative exchanges have merged and de -
mutualised in Hong Kong, and in Singapore.
The change in governance structure through demutualisation has been
seen as critical to the ability to respond to the challenges that rapid change in
the industry entails. Plans to merge and/or demutualise have occurred or are in
train in Malaysia, Korea and the Philippines. Related to the competition
among exchanges, the brokerage industry in Asia faces strong pressure to
liberalize commissions. For example, Singapore liberalized commissions in
October 2000, and fixed commission rules have broken down in Korea.
Malaysia is following a two-stage approach, to al ow the industry time to
adapt to the change, while in Hong Kong, commissions are due to be
liberalized this year.
Another effect of the intense competition has been the tendency for
certain markets to specialize as a way of attracting sufficient business to
achieve the scale of operations needed to build liquidity and reap cost
advantages. Singapore, for example, has sought to implement a strategy of
fostering the development of asset management activities. Australia has seen
substantial growth in foreign exchange business in the past three years, in
marked contrast to the general trend recorded in the BIS-coordinated triennial
survey of a marked worldwide decline in daily turnover. The reason has been
that a number of global players have focused their Asian time zone business
in Australia. As a result, daily turnover in US$/third currency business has
grown to the point where it is almost equal in volume to US$/A$ turnover.
This growth has added substantial depth and vibrancy to the local financial
community.
Modernisation and convergence of regulatory frameworks
Consolidation and the competition for financial business is leading to the
adoption of new legislation in national markets to establish a competitively
neutral` regulatory environment (e.g., the Financial Services Reform Bill,
which came into effect in Australia in March 2002). But the process is driven
also by the contestability of financial transactions among financial centres,
which risk losing business when antiquated regulatory frameworks raise
operation costs.
Convergence is also evident in the development of common legal
forms for particular financial instruments that are traded in national markets
(e.g., swaps), disclosure standards, and accounting standards. At the same
time, the potential for systemic instability and contagion across national
boundaries creates an incentive to adopt best practices in regulatory
frameworks.
The recognition of the importance of implementing best practices
underlies the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) by the IMF and
the World Bank, which seeks inter alia to assess countries` observance of key
regulatory standards such as the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking
Supervision, the IOSCO (International Organisation of Securities
Commissions) and the IAIS (International Association of Insurance
Supervisors) principles for the securities and insurance industries, and the core
principles for systemically important payments systems. Foreign penetration
of domestic financial systems places a substantial premium on cooperation
among national supervisors.
The growing use of synthetic financial instruments
It has long been recognized that securitization has brought with it the
possibility to unbundled credit and market risks, price them efficiently, and
distribute them to institutions and investors most equipped to deal with them.4
Such instruments can be used also as a means for hedging the volatility risk
inherent in the modern international capital market. It is therefore important
that countries seek to encourage the development and appropriate use of such
instruments.
The recent BIS-coordinated triennial survey of foreign exchange
turnover provides evidence on the extent to which the use of such instruments
is growing worldwide. In contrast to the world-wide decline in foreign
exchange market turnover, there has been a 50 per cent rise in derivatives
trade in the three years since the survey was last conducted, al of this due to
the growth in interest-rate-related products. The trend seems to be well
established in Asia. In Australia, for example, the survey pointed to a tripling
in derivatives contracts since the last survey, suggesting rapid strides in the
maturation of local capital markets.
In summary, the growth of local debt and equity markets in Asia has
been an important step that can be further developed as a defense against high
volatility in international capital flows. Somewhat paradoxically, perhaps,
joining the trend by completing the development and integration of domestic
capital markets may be the best defense against the negative consequences of
the global integration of capital markets that is proceeding rapidly in other
parts of the world.
2. 11 Role of India in the Global Scenario
Like other emerging markets, role of India in the global scenario has
expanded far from being a mere supplier of commodities. Now funds are
being brought into the country in anticipation of higher returns. This is a good
news for the development of India because in the supply of commodities, the
nation had to produce first and then to receive payment. On the other hand in
the case of investment funds, the money comes in first and the returns have to
be paid later. Higher expected returns, inefficiency of capital market and
greater scope for diversification due to low correlations of Indian market with
other emerging and developed markets, are the main reasons responsible for
attraction of Indian to the global investors. Further the attraction of India is
also a product of necessity. The shifting paradigm in current Indian economic
thought has transferred the main role in the economic development of the
nation from the Government to the private sector. Increasingly it will be the
markets rather than the Government planners who will decide on critical
issues like the allocation of capital. The virtual elimination of industrial
licensing, the easing of restrictive provisions of the MRTP and FERA, the
gradual dismantling of price controls on both products and equity markets
have all given a strong boost to business enterprises. More business implies
more funding. Businesses are increasingly topping the capital markets to
finance their expansions, modernizations, and new projects. To meet the
insatisfiable thirst of business enterprises for funds Government has allowed
them to raise funds in foreign capital markets. Some established companies
have aggressively set out to tap foreign markets by issuing Foreign Currency
Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) and equity shares (through the depository receipt
mechanism).
Indian companies were first permitted to tap the Euro market in 1992.
Since then a number of companies have raised capital in the Euro market
through the issue of FCCBs and GDRs. Companies have been drown
overseas because the volumes that can be raised are higher. The issuance costs
are at 2 to 3 percent being substantially lower than comparable rupee issues.
Interest rates in overseas markets are lower as compared to Indian domestic
standards
India ranks high among the emerging markets in respect of attraction
for capital, as world markets are getting increasingly turbulent, India is still
fortunately free from the cascading effects of butterfly in Mexico or an
earthquake in Argentina. Also foreign investors need not be worry about over-
night seismic policy changes brought therein, as it happened in the case of
Mexico, devaluation of local currency, paucity of foreign exchange reserves
and serious trade deficit have created a flight of capital from what appears to
be the most promising emerging market of the decade. In spite of the
attractiveness of Indian capital market for foreign investment, the inflow of
foreign capital has not been satisfactory.
To fortify its chances of attracting foreign funds, both in the portfolio
and the direct formats, India should make active efforts to improve the
functioning of its financial markets that is allocating capital more efficiently,
focus on core financial themes such as interest liberalization (which is done to
a large extent), smaller government role in credit allocation, and improvement
in the role of banks as financial intermediaries. India has to focus more
inwards than outwards. Problems regarding custodial services, clearances,
settlements and taxation etc engage most attention. Many Fls did not enter
Indian market due to custodial services. Foreign banks custodians alone
cannot handle Fls business.
The sole and purchase of securities should be allowed in large
marketable lots to reduce the transactional load. The transfer of shares take an
average two months and some companies even take six months despite
reminders; there is a lack of transparency in the transactions which can justify
the genuineness of the quoted prices. SEBI should be given legal power to
take drastic action against the erring companies.
Consequent upon efforts towards globalization of business and trade
in the recent past capital markets of different countries are turning global.
Emerging markets consisting of developing economies have become
attraction among the international investors for increasing return on their
investment. This is because the developed markets have reached a level of
saturated growth. Hence the attractiveness of the emerging markets, since
they offer higher return, reflect faster growth rates and show the propensity to
absorb the surplus technology and the funds of the investors of developed
countries.
To ensure that India does not lose out in the race of capital attraction,
there is a need for making radical changes in the functioning of financial
markets and government regulations, Indian companies desiring to enter the
foreign capital markets most strengthen their information base and make-
appropriate modifications than their accounting systems. This is required to
fulfill the information needs of foreign investors. Those investors require
information about past performance and future prospects of investor
companies for making investment decisions.
Review questions:
1. Discus about Globalization of Capital Markets and Financing Mix`
of Firms.
2. Explain the risks of financing internationally.
3. What are the types of Bonds?
4. What are the major capital markets in this world? Explain.
5. Discuss in detail the developments in Global Finance, Markets, and
Institutions in the Asian Region
6. Explain the Key Trends in International Capital Markets
7. Explain in detail important consequences due to the Prevailing Trends
in International Capital Markets
References:
1.MauricS"'Dlevi,'International Financial Management., McGraw-Hill.
2. C. Jeevanandham, EXCHANGE RATE ARITHMETIC, Sultan
Chand.
3. Apte.P.G., International Financial Management, Tata Mc. Graw
Hill,NewDelhi.
4. Henning, C.N., W.Piggot and W.H.Scott, International Financial
Management, Mc.Graw Hill, International Edition.
Lesson - 3
The International Economic System and Globalization
Objectives of the Lesson:
After studying this unit you should be able to:
Know the Different Facets of Globalization and their Manifestations
Understand the Problems and Challenges of Globalization
Explain the relationship between Investment, Transfer of Technology and
Global Business
Know the Interfacing of the National and International Orders.
Structure of the Lesson:
3.0 Introduction
3.1 The Different Facets of Globalization and their Manifestations
3.2 The Problems and Challenges of Globalization
3.3 Investment, Transfer of Technology and Global Business
3.4 The Interfacing of the National and International Orders
3.0 Introduction
The prevailing international economic arrangements are an amalgam of facts,
rules, and modalities created one at a time rather than a holistic system of
cohesive design. The monetary part is a transformation of the old Bretton
Woods system, which came into actual collapse in August 1971, but was
rescued by successive fixes from 1972 onwards. It remains based on the US
dol ar, and centered around the IMF whose mission and philosophy have
evolved at a politically control ed pace. The monetary and financial systems
are covered institutionally by the IMF in monetary matters and by the World
Bank in finance matters. Moreover, the World Bank, while an important
source of development funds for the poor countries and an instrument for
bringing their policies under the scrutiny of the dominant members, shares its
role, de facto, with the private sector, which is, de jure, not a part of the
official system and is in the business of profit making.
The trade part of these arrangements, issuing essential y from the
GATT, was redesigned in its scope and its law by the WTO agreement.
However, it has maintained numerous features of the old GATT; it is still
based on the exercise of full sovereignty in granting or not granting
concessions; it remains essentially one based on liberal trade access, on non-
discrimination in treatment via the application of the most favoured nation
clause; and it is now based on equal treatment of countries regardless of their
trading capacities. There is yet no sub system for dealing directly and
explicitly with investments and the transfer of technology.
3.1 The Different Facets of Globalization and their Manifestations
Globalization is manifested in four interrelated developments:
1. The increase in the international exchange of goods and services, and
despite all the restrictions therein, the movements of human resources;
2. The internationalization of production and real investments;
3. The increased integration of financial markets;
4. The relative high degree of policy convergence among countries.
The statistical evidence on these developments is truly impressive. In
the trade area, the ratio of international trade to the GDP of practically all
countries has more than doubled over the last two decades. Trade has
substantially outpaced the growth of the GDP in all but very few years over
the past twenty- five years. A major new phenomenon is the size of services
in total trade, in particular financial services.
World trade grew at a real per annum rate of 5.5% in 1985-1994. In the
following decade, 1995-2004, it registered an annual real growth of 6%3. This
is well above the average growth of the GDP in the same periods. For
individual countries, even the large and relatively closed ones, the trend is the
same .For example, in the US; trade went from a mere 9 % of the US`GDP in
1970 to more than 23 % in 2003. In the small European countries and most of
the small developing countries, trade has gone up from levels in the range of
40-50% percent of the GDP in 1970 to levels in the range of 80 to 90 percent
in 2003. The increased importance of trade relative to the GDP, is particularly
striking in the developing countries. The twenty developing countries
classified by an UNCTAD paper as the most dynamic, have increased their
share in total world exports from 9.5% in 1980 to 24.3 % in 1998; this is all
the more impressive in view of the large growth of exports.
In the exchange of human resources, the movement of labour across
international borders, legally or illegally, together with the growth of
immigration from poor to rich countries has reached such levels that
immigration has become an explosive political issue in al the recent political
campaigns of Western Europe. Even in the US, a traditional country of
immigration, the increased scale of economic immigration is beginning to be
a standard feature of political campaigns and is heavily exploited by
politicians in quest of electoral gains.
In investment cum production area, the internationalization of
production is currently manifest in the phenomenal increase of foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) in the US, in Europe, and in some twenty or so developing
countries, led by China. For example, China has experienced investment
inflows reaching 7.9 percent of the GDP in 1993 and 8.1 in 2003. This has
taken place against the backdrop of real annual growth of China`s GDP of 8-9
percent. In some smaller economies, like Malaysia, these inflows had reached
a high of 14.6 percent of the GDP in1993. After dipping in 1997and 1998, net
inflows bounced back, but have not resumed a steady pace of growth after
2001. There is also a growing subcontracting of production and a spreading of
production facilities by transnational firms.
In the finance arena, businesses have increased their recourse to
international sources as testified by the increased volume of floatation of
foreign bond; the increased issuance of international bonds in the Euro
markets, and the increased international lending in direct and indirect forms.
Moreover, big companies have substantially increased their stock listings on
the various public exchanges.
The financial institutions, led by banks, have become truly international
not only in doing international financing like their predecessors have done
since the nineteenth century, but in addition, by locating in various countries
through some times outright establishment or acquisition of local banks. On
both the assets and liability sides of their balance sheets, banking is now
international: loans and deposits are denominated in different currencies
originating from and going to different points of the globe.
Just as tel ing perhaps but more a typical, is the increased convergence
of economic policies of governments. This is the result of several factors: the
complete triumph of the liberal model has narrowed the scope of choice in
economic policies. All countries want to be seen pursuing the right policy
model. The second factor is the emulate- thy- competitor syndrome; countries
match the concessions and benefits given by their competitors to foreign
investors and trans- national firms in order not to suffer a comparative
disadvantage. The third reason is the relative short time the world has had to
fashion policies based on some variation on the orthodox liberal model. The
policy convergence however, is stronger among smaller economies than the
big ones, because the big economies quite frequently pursue policies dictated
by short term expediencies.
The spotty results of the government control ed model, already clear in
the 1980`s, and the collapse of the socialist economies in 1989, have brought
about an almost universal acceptance of liberal and open market organization
and a semi consensus on economic policies. A rather extreme version
emerged in the so cal ed Washington Consensus. This was so called after
the meeting in Washington of economists with views concordant with those
of the IMF and the World Bank as to what model of economic policy to
follow. Not withstanding the challenge to this consensus by various other
economists, there is a wide convergence of views today on what are bad
policies and a spectrum of accord on what are good ones.
3.2 The Problems and Challenges of Globalization:
If globalization is a non- stoppable train, as many argue, it seems to
be a rather selective one in admitting passengers aboard. Economies
possessive of skilled and educated manpower and endowed with well
developed production and marketing capacities can get on board to reap
significant benefits if they have developed financial systems and access to
technology. It is a system where the benefits accrue only to the capable and
prepared. Those who do not have the products and services to sel or the
means to market them will assuredly be left in the station. The same is also
true for individuals who have not invested in their human capital and in
obtaining the requisite skills for global jobs. Thus, we are faced with the
phenomenon of marginalization of people, of firms and of countries; the
global system confers a large rent differential upon the participants and
applies exclusion to the non- participants. Unless the means to spread around
wealth and prosperity are built into globalization, it will become the domain
of the already established, of the capable and skilled. Consequently, enabling
capacity -building in trade technology and human- capital is an important
issue in the debate on globalization. Unlike export-orientation, globalization
involves the entire resource base and know-how of the economic agents.
Thus, participatory capacity is an important issue.
Faced with the reality of the requirements of the global economy,
Nation states confront a host of problems: they have to accept the relative loss
of sovereign control and the erosion of the fiscal base if they want to keep up
with competitors who grant tax holidays and wave off social charges. At the
same time, they are forced to increase their expenditure on infrastructure and
education to enter into or keep their presence in the global system. To al that
must be added the system consequence of accepting global openness: national
governments must extend safety nets for taking care of the casualties of
globalization, be it firms, banks or workers, if they are to maintain the social
compact and preserve domestic civil peace. These are contradictory demands
on national governments. Another problem concerns the timing and location
of the short run benefits and losses in the trade sector. While the countries
with higher wages and more exigent environmental standards stand to lose
jobs as business shifts some branches of industry to cheaper locations abroad,
higher paying jobs have not followed the lost ones in the short run. The theory
of international trade asserts that higher value added jobs would replace the
lost ones. But the theory does not have a clear time- line for the working out
of comparative advantage; it has always assumed that the replacement
technology is available and the costs of conversion, in particular labour
retraining, are insignificant. Obviously, this is not so when replacement
technologies are the private property of businesses, which no longer have
national allegiance and will use the technology and locate the jobs where they
make the highest profits. In today`s world, the major concern of business is
the overall global bottom line and the increase in the wealth of the stock-
holders. The empirical evidence on industry replacement is hardly clear- cut
in the short run. In the US, the evidence over 1992-2004 shows that the
number of jobs lost has been less than the number of newly created jobs10.
This is true over a decade but not necessarily true for a particular year. In the
short run, job replacement seems to carry migration born for some time by the
displaced workers. There are also costly structural impediments to the
transition to new jobs. The risk of creating significant constituencies in
democratic countries opposed to globalization, as witnessed in Genoa and
Seattle, is becoming quite high. Even when international firms own or have
access to new technology; the relative cost difference between different
locations might tempt them to relocate some jobs abroad. There is evidence
on that in the low white- collar jobs such as soft- wear and high information
skill jobs.
India has invested in education and developed a large and surplus stock
of skilled manpower, have succeeded in attracting lost jobs form global
businesses on account of their low wages. Traditional y, wage levels and
productivity gains have moved together. However, with openness it is
possible that higher productivity might be associated with lower wages for
skilled unemployed workers in a different country. We have therefore a break
in the observed historical association between wages and productivity across
countries with different cost of living. The historical pattern of investment in
education is now playing a large role in the working out of the law of
comparative advantage. Second, the new jobs generated in the US have an
average hourly pay lower than the lost ones. In fact, quite many of the new
jobs are in services with lower productivity and lower wage rates than lost
manufacturing jobs; for example the average hourly wage in some of the
fastest growing service jobs, the food industry, is $10.64 with a median of
$8.98 per hour, as compared to $18.07 mean and $ 17.10 median hourly
wages for the lost jobs in production, construction and extraction occupations.
Finally, the asymmetric distribution of benefits across countries is
breeding theories about disguised and new forms of economic domination
under globalization. Even though such views are often not empirically
demonstrated, nonetheless, they are voiced by important segments in open
societies, which have become permanent and non-discriminating opponents
of WTO and globalization.
3.3 Investment, Transfer of Technology and Global Business
Trans-national investment in its forms, portfolio and Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI), has become a striking feature of globalization. Net external
worldwide financing has gone up from less than $10 billion in the early
1970`s to a high of $243 billion in 1996. It receded in 2001 from these
historical heights, but reached an estimated $148 in 2003 and a forecast of
$149 billion in 2004.14 Portfolio investment, foreign direct investment, and
external borrowing, all exhibit the same trend. These impressive figures mask
to a certain extent the scale of the growth of gross inflows in the net receiving
countries because the data are in aggregate net terms. Despite that, the figures
remain quite impressive. In some developing countries such as China, Tran`s
border investments, largely emanating from overseas Chinese investors, have
accounted for 10 to 12 percent of fixed capital formation. Consequently, they
rendered possible the sustained high- growth of the country over the last three
decades. With few exceptions in closed economies, all countries developed
and developing now welcome such investments, especially in the form of
FDI. The competition for foreign investment is keen enough that countries
resort to competitive concessions and more and more uniformity in
macroeconomic policies to attract the investors. The potential benefits of
foreign investment as a supplement to domestic savings, as a source of
technology transfer in the case of FDI and as a more efficient use of savings
world wide, are undeniable. But, such investments raise questions for the
global system. In the case of portfolio investment, the Asian crisis has
graphically shown how the wave can turn around, and cause panic flights of
capital engendering balance of payments difficulties and currency crisis in the
host countries.
Another asymmetry is implicit in the agreement on the TRIPS,
negotiated in the WTO package. It protects the property rights of the owners
but does not fully address the twin issues of the impact of the protections on
the transfer of technology, to developing countries, and the need to make
possible and feasible, the acquisition of drugs indispensable for public health.
Quite naturally, the incidence of R&D favours the rich countries with their
established capacity to develop and apply new technology and to use qualified
cadres of educated people from all over the world. Since all of the new
technology is essentially in private business hands, the TRIPS confirm the
exclusion principle of the market place internationally. The AIDS crisis in
Africa and the recent disputes between governments and drug companies
protected by the certificates of intellectual property rights are examples in
point. There is thus an undeniable need to bring the private holders of copy
right, mostly big Trans- Nationals, into some system of internationally
control ed exploitation where, as a quid pro quo for copy -right protection,
they adhere to an internationally agreed code of behavior.
Finally, the WTO system opens up the possibility of enmeshing the
trade system into the investment and other subsystems in the application of
trade law. Developing countries have long signaled their opposition to
applying trade sanctions in disputes involving non- trade issues. By invoking
the WTO dispute- settlement mechanisms in non- trade disputes, the strong
trading countries can exploit their trade dissuasion power (the trade capacity
and the associated value of trade concessions) all across the issues; and that
would create unexpected problems for those who negotiated the WTO law in
good faith within the strict confines of the trading system.
3.4 The Interfacing of the National and International Orders
The establishment of the WTO revived sharply the old disputes of
where the demarcation between the national and international domains lies
and how they should interface. The IMF provided an early example of this
tension, but the WTO has escalated the debate. The rules and obligations of
the trade organization, and indeed the new international trade law, on the
reasoning that some domestic policies have international consequences, step
into domains of policy hereto squarely in the national domains. Prime
examples are to be found in industrial policies and agricultural subsidies, both
of which violate the new WTO rules. To be sure, the essential purpose of
industrial policies is to give extra impulse to economic development, and of
agricultural policies to impart balance to the environment and to preserve
certain modes of living and traditions. However, both policies are found
contrary to the international order because they violate the international
principle of level playing field. In many countries, wide segments of society
do not accept this encroachment upon the national sphere and place greater
value on the accomplishment of the above-mentioned goals in the national
domains than on the rules and efficacy of the international system. Moreover,
a certain historical duplicity is assessed upon the advocates of liberal trade in
that many of them, e.g. Japan, the US, European countries and South Korea,
to cite some examples, have in the past practiced and benefited from these
same currently forbidden policies.
In the case of the IMF, certain conditionality targets such as ceilings on
debt and money supply and the size of public budget are seen to be contrary to
the sovereign right of governance and the self- determination of domestic
affaires. Governments accept them more by the pressures of need than by any
conviction about their merits. The same is even more egregious in the IMF
surveillance and conditionality provisions regarding countries that need Fund
resources. For example, the recent Fund packages for Turkey and for
Argentina, get into budgets, pension reforms, privatizations, financial
domestic regulations and social security, areas that countries not in need for
IMF support would strictly keep under their sovereign prerogatives. It is clear
that there are no ready or agreed criteria as to where the demarcation lines
should be, since what might be required by international concerns is
sometimes of a predominantly domestic nature and what might be done
domestically could have large international implications. Nor could one make
an easy trade- off between the national interest and those of the international
order because the national benefits are felt directly while the international ones
are often felt indirectly. This evaluation of globalization is not accepted by
every one. There are some who argue that, in some areas like agriculture, poor
countries would stand to reap great benefits from globalization. However, the
research on the implications of removing the European agricultural subsidies
CAP shows that not al poor countries stand to benefit from it. The example of
Bangladesh in textile is brought up to bolster this view for industrial sectors.
Review Questions:
1. Discuss the different Facets of Globalization and their Manifestations
2. Explain in brief the problems and Challenges of Globalization
3. Explain the relationship between Investment, Transfer of Technology, and
Global Business
References:
1.MauricS"'Dlevi,'International Financial Management., McGraw-Hill.
2. C. Jeevanandham, EXCHANGE RATE ARITHMETIC, Sultan
Chand.
Lesson - 4
The International Monetary and Financial Systems
1.0 Introduction
It can be argued that the international monetary and financial systems are the
main driving force of globalization. It is evident that the free movement of
capital affecting exchange rates and in the process, unsettling financial
conditions and economic policies, leads to boom and bust conditions and
currency gyrations in most economies. It is also evident that in a global
economy, the variation of economic policies and financial conditions in the
major countries spill over into the small countries and overwhelm their small
economies. Yet, the prevailing international monetary system dates back
some forty years and was designed for the conditions of the world economy
prior to the arrival of globalization.
The outstanding features of the two organizations established at
Bretton Woods in 1944, namely, the IMF and the IBRD, and their underlying
systems, can be succinctly described.
The International Monetary System (IMS) was to have no resources
of its own, contrary to the original proposals of Keynes and the British
Treasury. It was instead based on national quotas negotiated with members
upon entry, which constitute the key to resource contributions and to decision
-making as well as to access to the financial facilities. The IMF was to be
essentially concerned with the area of current account adjustment and current
account flows, though article IV of the Articles of Agreement, provided that
one of its main purposes was establishing a framework for capital exchange
among members. The exchange rate system was to be initially fixed, but
eventual y adjustable. The US dol ar was put at the centre of the international
reserve system, to be later on complemented by other key currencies.
The IBRD evolved from a post war reconstruction agency for post -
war Europe, as the name says, to a development funding institution called the
World Bank, essentially concerned with developing countries. Interestingly, it
was not endowed with much authority in the governance of the global
financial system. Once again, the quota system was enshrined at the centre of
its resources, its operations, and its governance.
In 1972-1974, a window of opportunity opened up to revamp the
system in order to bring it up to date and render it consistent with the
evolution of capital markets, the exchange rate experience, the development
issues and the evolution of international trade. This however, failed again to
secure consensus agreement, with the United States and Germany objecting to
different sets of recommendations made by the Committee of Twenty (C.20).
The reform issue was subsequently put on the back burner for more
than a decade. The system has had two amendments to the Articles of
Agreements: to create the SDRs as the system currency and unit of account in
1968 and to legalize ex post facto floating in 1978. In the wake of the Latin
American and the Asian crises of 1997, many authorities, and even some
states, cal ed for a new architecture of the system more suitable to the global
economic conditions. Many worthwhile ideas have been put forward since
1972, and particularly after 1997. However, despite al that has been said
about the inadequacy of the old system under the new global conditions, there
has been no official agreement on substantial reforms.
4.1 The outstanding issues in the International Monetary and Financial
Systems
The outstanding issues in the International Monetary and Financial Systems
can be listed under the following headings:
A- The Governance and Regulation of the Capital and Monetary Flows:
B- The Management of Financial Crisis and the Function of the Bank of
Last Resort.
C- The Foreign Exchange System
D- The Reform of the IMF
4.1.1 The Governance and Regulation of Financial Flows
The Breton Woods system provided no governance for international
financial flows. Although Keynes was quite keen on the topic, the other
conferees did not seem in 1944 to be much concerned about it. However, the
achievement of capital account convertibility in the advanced countries as of
1959 ( some four years after realizing current account equilibrium) and the
subsequent development of capital markets in the 60`s, 70`s and 80`s,
propel ed this issue to the fore. In the wake of the Asian crisis in 1997, and the
demonstrated globalization of financial markets, it could no longer be ignored.
The Articles of Agreements of the IMF contained disparate
references to financial flows in Articles IV and VI. As indicated above,
Article IV made the free exchange of finance among member states a
fundamental objective of the IMF. Article VI provides permissibility of
capital controls as long as they do not impede or restrict payments made for
the current account transactions (the balance of trade and unilateral transfers).
It also disallows the use of the resources of the fund to support large capital
outflows.
The concern with the growth of financial instability impel ed the G.7
(the group of seven major industrial countries) in February 1999 to establish
the Financial Stability Forum with the aim of promoting international
financial stability through improved exchange of information, cooperation
with respect to financial supervision and surveillance, and streamlining
standards and norms in the various participant countries. Natural y, this work
cannot be confined to financial flows and the financial institutions, as it has
direct implications with respect to macroeconomic policies, the various
standards of the financial system and its judicial framework.
In each of the various areas, a key standard was established with a
lead institution responsible for developing the necessary codes, rules, norms,
and standards. Consequently, the BIS has over the last decade been the forum
in which officials from the participating countries and international
organizations, without the presence of private sector agents, have concluded
numerous agreements aiming at establishing cooperative modalities for
col ecting systematically information on capital and monetary flows and
disseminating them to members and the public. The forum has reached
numerous agreements on codes of behaviour such as the code of Good
Practices on Transparency in Monetary and Financial Policies, and the same
for transparency in fiscal policy. It reached agreements on financial regulation
and supervision such as The Core Principles of Effective Banking
Supervision and those of security and insurance. It also agreed on regulation
standards for insolvency, for corporate governance, for auditing and
accounting and principles to deal with money -laundering. It also agreed to
rules and procedures for the treatment of important financial concepts such as
risk and exposure as well as setting up modalities of cooperation among
officials of member states. An important part of what was achieved is the
col ection of data and the establishment of a shared data- base.
Unfortunately, the private sector was not involved directly in devising
the new rules and principles and not asked to share any responsibilities.
Furthermore, no modalities were agreed for securing its continuous
involvement in financial governance, let alone setting up a non- voluntary
code of investors` behavior.
All of this work, with all its due importance, amounted in effect to
organizing in the source countries the supervision of their institutions and
setting up financial regulations and behavior standards for their institutions.
Natural y, global financial governance involves conduct in crises, obligations
on the source authorities as well as the recipient country authorities and above
al , setting up proper models of conduct and codes of standards for private
investors. But this was not to be, as the private sector participation remained
strictly voluntary.
As noted earlier, the increased globalization of the world economy
and the evolved integration of financial markets have resulted in enormous
increase in cross border financial flows, with a concomitant increase in
financial instability and frequent eruptions of financial and currency crises. No
doubt the purpose of the new codes and standards is to increase financial
stability and prevent, or at least, forewarn of impending crises.
In this context, several other proposals have been put forward to set
up a system authority to carry out and enforce financial governance since the
1980`s. Some proposals suggest the creation of a world-wide supervisory and
regulatory authority, the World Financial Authority, to regulate and
supervise all institutions and markets. Another variant more concerned with
system issues and policies, developed proposals to establish a super agency
over al the relevant international organizations to be responsible for the whole
system: its policies, regulations, supervision, and crisis management.
All these proposals share the aim of establishing a global authority
with a global perspective and enforceable authority to deal with the
application of regulations, codes of behaviour, and methods of controls and
rules of functioning on radically different basis than the piece meal, patchy
approach of the present institutions. It is argued that the globalization of the
world economy now cal s for such an approach.
Another problem concerns the treatment of the private sector. Since
private investors and speculators in the source countries are responsible for the
bulk of the financial flows, the voluntary character of the application of the
established rules and codes to them stands in stark contrast to the summons to
obey with consequent sanctions addressed to the recipient and their private
concerns. A code of behavior for investors would be an enormous
development. However, there are several objections to such a binding code.
The first argues that it is exceedingly difficult to enforce it. The second is an
efficiency argument about the distortion of allocation of international
investment funds in the case of involuntary controls. The third concerns the
deterrence to capital movements it might bring about, in particular, inflows to
the poorer countries. The fourth is the desirability of avoiding bureaucratic
decision- making and conflict of jurisdictions in case of crisis. The counter
arguments are familiar from the work of the BIS and the literature on capital
controls and the Tobin tax. Briefly, it is argued that feasibility is an open
empirical question; that the efficiency argument assumes that a code -free
system is optimal and is already in place and that the fear of bureaucratic
conflicts is exaggerated. On balance, a universal code applied by all and
enforced by an impartial international authority, such as the IMF, should be
feasible.
4.1.2 The Management of Financial Crises: the Bank of Last Resort
Without a reserve system with a base in the Fund, any arrangement
will ultimately depend on the political decisions of the dominant Fund
members in accepting or not to fulfil this function. In the event, this function is
exercised on case-by-case basis. In other words, it is not an established and
regular system function. And it will not be a system function until, and
perhaps unless, the IMF has the capacity, like any national monetary
authority, to initiate action on its own with its own resources as the custodian
of the international monetary and financial systems. For this reason, the first
amendment to the Articles of Agreement in 1968, introduced the SDRs as the
base of the system. However, after much improvement in their characteristics
and much extension in their use within the Fund, the SDRs have remained a
mere 2% fraction of international reserves. The last time one heard of the
SDRs was in 1994, when M. Camdesue, the then Managing Director of the
Fund, proposed a third issue of the SDRs, destined primarily to the newly
joined Eastern European countries. That proposal was scuttled by the
developing countries who objected to the preferential treatment accorded to
the new members. Politically speaking, the issue remains on the back burner
and for the time being, there seems to be no advocates.
From inception, the IMF was created without resources of its own.
Even before Bretton Woods, the vision of Keynes of an autonomously
financed Union with flexible and discretionary resource base was abandoned
in view of the opposition of the US. In its place, the US concept, articulated
by Under Secretary Harry Dexter White, was to enshrine an institution based
on a resource pool contributed and control ed by the countries with majority
quotas. Thus, the new global conditions in financial and currency markets
have thrust the institution into areas for which it has no adequate resource base
independent of the political decisions of its major members.
In recent years, several proposals have been formulated to deal with
this lacuna, the most ambitious of which is the proposal of the Meltzer
Commission set up by the US Congress. There are a number of issues to be
pointed out in this context, some political, some institutional and some
technical. The lender of last resort role requires not only resources, but as well
enforceable control on al countries.
The financial crises in both Asia and Latin America have some
common features and similar sequences. They were predominantly crises in
the financial system. In the majority of cases in Asia, there was no
macroeconomic policy mismanagement signaled by the Fund in its prior
surveillance consultations with the members. Typically, there was a mal-
functioning domestic financial system interacting with the typical behavior of
the open international financial system. Usually, the start is ignited by banks
carrying on their books a great deal of large assets that are non ?performing.
This leads in short order to failure of the banks to cope with servicing
liabilities denominated in foreign exchange. Swiftly, a currency crisis
explodes and the balance sheets of the banks and other institutions suffer
severe deterioration in their domestic currency net worth. The swift and
simultaneous reaction of creditors to these developments ushers in a country
balance of payments crisis and requires usually severe adjustment. The crisis
soon propagates into al sectors of the economy and spills over into other
countries by, inter alia, altering the risk perception of international investors.
The international official system then becomes involved to stem possible
systemic risk. As a result, rescue packages would be negotiated with the
stricken countries. These seem to have some important common features.
Dramatic increases in interest rates, damaging to the macroeconomic
performance in the first place, increase greatly the interest rate risk of debt and
other fixed- income securities and inflicts large capital losses on the balance
sheet of banks and other financial institutions of the debtors. The hiking of
interest rates inflicts a net capital loss on the asset side. The result is severe
deterioration in banks balance sheet that might wipe out their net worth.
This problem has recently attracted a good deal of attention. For
example, Barry Eichengreen of Berkley has just published a proposal to float
bonds denominated in a synthetic unit of account based on a basket of
developing country currencies for choosy investors unwilling to invest except
in bonds or securities denominated in key currencies. The effective exchange
rate of such bonds is more stable than individual currencies. These bonds
would further entice the creditor banks to carry them for reducing their
exposure to country risk. He calculated that the increased premiums to be paid
would be a small fraction of the cost of the Asian crises.
4.1.3 The Foreign Exchange System
The foreign exchange system used to be one of two major topics of
discussion regarding the IMS in the 1960`s- the other was the international
reserve system. These discussions emphasized the choice of regimes: fixed or
floating. After the break down of the old Bretton Woods system of fixed but
flexible rates, in August 1971, there was no official willingness to suggest
radical changes in the prevailing system The first Smithsonian agreement of
December 1971, amounted to tinkering with the old parities, while the second
Smithsonian in1972, was a surrender to reality, as major currencies started
floating against each other in March 1973. In 1978, the agreement embodied
in the second amendment to the Articles of Agreement of Jamaica, aimed ex
post facto at legalizing the status quo. The revision of article IV on
surveillance, laid such vague guidelines as to amount to generalities. There
was no statement of obligations, no standards to judge misalignments and no
authority to enforce action on countries not in need for IMF resources. It was
left to macroeconomic policies to carry the burden of arriving at orderly
conditions.
The instability of real exchange rates, defined by any statistical
measure of volatility, has increased under floating, thereby spilling over into
developing countries, and in the event, unsettling their macroeconomic and
financial conditions. The IMF estimates that more than half of the volatility of
developing country exchange rates is explained by the volatility of the real
exchange rates of the G.3 countries, i.e., the dollar, the yen, and the Euro. It
also holds that the greater volatility of real exchange rates has been
associated with greater real effective exchange rates misalignment
During the past thirty years, the major currency countries undertook
only two coordinated interventions following the Plaza Accord of 1985, and
the Louvre Accord of 1987. In all other instances, where volatility aroused
concerns, the major countries refused to intervene on the argument that
intervention does not resolve the fundamental problems and that the markets
are better at deciding the parities. This is an argument that rejects dealing with
the manifestations of the symptoms but says nothing about how and when it
will deal with the problem.
In 2003, almost half of the emerging market economies used an
intermediate peg system, i.e., one of pegged but adjustable rates. This is a
decline from the level of more than two thirds in 1991, according to the
former chief economist of the Fund. Simultaneously, the proportion of
countries using a hard peg (a fixed peg with narrow limits), or free- floating
regimes has risen to 58%. It is not difficult to see the reason for this shift: the
floating of major currencies unsettles the financial conditions of the small
economies; it creates boom and bust gyrations and overshooting of their
exchange rates.
The proposals of reform in this area are a market -basket variety of
currency bands and intervention limits around them together with guidelines
of misalignment, such as price movements, and quantitative triggers of action.
Several policy instruments can be used to track these rates. Among
such instruments are: sterilized intervention- where assets are not perfect
substitutes, temporary capital controls and in the longer term, interest rates,
and monetary policy. Naturally, an important requirement is to have an
anchor either in the form of exchange rate or another quantitative policy
anchor.
4.1.4 The Reform of the IMF
There are three main issues in this area: the governance of the IMF,
the surveillance and conditionality and the reserve system together with the
function of the bank of last resort. This lesson has already dealt with the last
topic above.
a. The Governance of the IMF
The Fund governance has been a contentious issue between the
developing and developed countries since the mid of 1950`s. The familiar
argument of the former is that the quota system is not fair as a key for
decision- making and access to resources. The response of the latter is that it is
only normal and fair that each country share in decision-making be
commensurate with its contribution to the Fund resources.
The economic system is one in which states are not equal, some are
certainly more economically important than others even though they all have
equal political sovereignty. This holds in fact when it comes to the
contribution of member states to the system. It also holds in economic theory
in analyzing big economy influence over international adjustment. The
economic conditions and policies of the major countries fundamentally affect
the international economy. Similarly, the effects of global economic changes
are more important for the big economies. It is uncontroversial to assert that a
decision by the IMF requires more the assent and active cooperation of the
large economy countries than the small ones. Economic analysis explicitly
distinguishes between large and small economies when it comes to the
international influence of their macroeconomic policies.
The developing countries have created two institutional modalities to
strengthen their influence on the IMF: the Group of Twenty Four and the
Development Committee. The G.24 was established more than three decades
ago by the Group of Seventy Seven, which founded UNCTAD. It has had a
good working program supported by UNCTAD and other international
secretariats as well as by the service of independent experts of distinction. It is
fair to say that it has had beneficial influence on the IMF and has, to certain
extent, served the interests of developing countries.
b. The Surveillance Function and Conditionality
Conditionality was developed by the IMF in the early 1950`s to
ensure the paying back of members purchases, thereby preserving the
revolving character of its resources. Some time later, in the 1960`s and
1970`s, a paternalistic aspect to conditionality came into evidence as the IMF
meant to guide the countries under its adjustment programs towards what it
regarded the correct path to equilibrium using the correct model40 In the
1980`s as the debt crisis erupted in Mexico and later on in other indebted
countries, conditionality expanded beyond current account problems to cover
many aspects of financial accounts and to bear on disparate aspects of
domestic economic policies. The debt crisis brought domestic financial
systems and policies under the purview of conditionality. At the behest of the
dominant members, policy reform emerged into the forefront at the close of
the eighties and beginning of the nineties. The Fund acting in coordination
with the World Bank began to lay restrictions and performance clauses on
macro and micro economic policies and the two institutions divided the
enforcement work among them selves. By the 1990`s, the avowed intent and
priority of conditionality was placed on policy and structural reforms and new
facilities were created to finance such programs.
Review Questions:
1. Outline in detail the outstanding issues in the International Monetary and
Financial Systems
2. Explain the Governance and Regulation of Financial Flows
3. Discuss the Reform of the IMF
References:
1.MauricS"'Dlevi,'International Financial Management., McGraw-Hill.
2. C. Jeevanandham, EXCHANGE RATE ARITHMETIC, Sultan
Chand.
Lesson - 5
Global Finance: Current Trends and Difficulties
Objectives of the Lesson:
After studying this unit you should able to:
To know the Current Trends and Difficulties faced in the Capital
Markets
To understand the issues relating to Liberalization Vs
Protectionism
Explain the Constituents of Sound Governance in the
Contemporary World
Structure of Lesson
5.0 Introduction
5.1 Current Trends and Difficulties faced in the Capital Markets
5.2 Liberalization Vs Protectionism
5.3 Constituents of Sound Governance in the Contemporary World
5.4 The Investment Guarantee Agreement (IGA)
5.5 Trade Disputes Settlements
5.0 Introduction
The explosive growth of international financial transactions and capital
flows is one of the most far-reaching economic developments of the
late 20th century. Net private capital flows to developing countries
tripled ? to more than US$150 billion a year during 1995 to 1997 from
roughly US$50 billion a year during 1987 to 1989. At the same time,
the ratio of private capital flows to domestic investment in developing
countries increased to 20% in 1996 from only 3% in 1990. Hence, this
has affected a shift from the national economy to global economies in
which production and consumption is internationalized and capital
flow freely and instantly across borders.
Powerful forces have driven the rapid growth of international
capital flows, including the trend in both industrial and developing
countries towards economic liberalization and the globalization of
trade. Revolutionary changes in information and communications
technologies have transformed the financial services industry
worldwide. Computer links enable investors to access information on
asset prices at minimal cost on a real time basis, while increased
computing power enables them to rapidly circulate correlations among
asset prices and between asset prices and other variables. At the same
time, new technologies make it increasingly difficult for governments
to control either inward or outward international capital flows when
they wish to do so.
In this context, perhaps financial markets are best understood
as networks and global markets as networks of different markets
linked through hubs or financial centers. This means that the
liberalization of capital markets and with it, likely increases in the
volume and volatility of international capital flows is an ongoing, and
to some extent, irreversible process.
Generally, world GDP and trade growth slowed in the past
1997/1998 as the East Asian crisis deepened and its repercussion were
felt increasingly outside the region. Asia recorded the strongest import
and export contraction in volume and value terms of all regions of the
world. The dollar value of Asia`s imports registered an unprecedented
decline of 17.5%. The five Asian countries most affected by the
financial crisis that broke in mid-1997, that is, Malaysia, Indonesia,
Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Thailand experienced import
contraction by one-third. In the context of these powerful trends, a few
significant the issues relating to them are, particularly from a capital
market regulator`s perspective.
5.1 Current Trends and Difficulties faced in the Capital Markets
Developments in computer and information technology have
made dramatic changes to the way the financial services industry
operates. These changes are affecting and will affect every aspect of
the financial services industry and offer the possibility of reduced costs
in raising capital, greater efficiencies in the mobilization of domestic
and international savings and the provision of better, cheaper
investment products more closely tailored to the needs of different
investor segments. The convergence of computer and communications
technology is promoting the development of computer mediated
networks, allowing for users to communicate and transmit data and
other information regardless of boundaries and distance. As
communication costs continue to fall, the potential of outsourcing
grows.
These changes will affect ?
The way investment products are offered, distributed and marketed
and the way in which investors access information about the products and
entities involved;
The activities of financial services intermediaries, especially advisers,
and the way they deal with investors;
The continued blurring of product and institutional boundaries, and
even the scope of financial services sector itself as non-traditional entities take
on some of the functions of financial intermediaries;
The methods of distribution and marketing of investment products
which will increasingly draw upon the techniques of mass marketed
consumer products; and
The way secondary trading in investment products takes place as
greater scope for direct investor transactions and low cost competitors to
established securities and futures markets becomes more of a reality.
Just as electronic commerce affects investors and providers of
financial products and services; it will affect the role of corporations
and capital market regulators. Just as electronic commerce facilitates
activities across jurisdictional borders; it poses in clear terms questions
about the practical enforceability of national laws. As well as practical
enforcement questions, electronic commerce also raises issues about
the role that capital market regulators should play and the effectiveness
of many of the traditional regulatory approaches and mechanisms that
have been employed by them. An example might be an offering of
securities made without a prospectus or registration statement on the
Internet by a person in a jurisdiction with which the capital market
regulator has no regular contact or mutual enforcement arrangements.
There are also concerns about illegal and fraudulent activity on the
Internet.
5.2 Liberalization Vs Protectionism
On the issue of liberalization vis-?-vis protectionism, there has
been a proliferation of multi-lateral trade agreements since the middle
of the century. Such agreements provide for a framework of rules
within which nations are obligated` to assure other nations signatory
to the agreement of a sovereign`s approach towards international trade.
The globalization of economies is intrinsically linked to the
internationalization of the services industry. It plays a fundamental
role in the growing interdependence of markets and production across
nations. Information technology has further expanded the scope of
tradability of this industry. Access to efficient services matters not
only because it creates new potential for export but also it will be an
increasingly important determinant of economic productivity and
competitiveness. The main thrusts of the services revolution` are the
rapid expansion of the knowledge-based services such as professional
and technical services, banking and insurance, healthcare and
education. Responding to this phenomenon, regulatory barriers to
entry in service industries are being reduced worldwide, either through
unilateral reforms, reciprocal negotiation, or multilateral agreements.
Developing countries are increasingly looking at foreign direct
investment in services as an especially powerful means of transferring
technical and managerial know-how, besides attracting foreign capital
and investment to the country.
5.2.1 Liberalization of Capital Account
A most obvious impact of globalization of trade is pressures
exerted on developing nations to liberalize their financial markets and
capital accounts. However, it is important to recognize that domestic
and international financial liberalization heighten the risk of crises if
not supported by prudential supervision and regulation and appropriate
macroeconomic policies. Domestic liberalization, by intensifying
competition in the financial sector, removes a cushion protecting
intermediaries from the consequences of bad loan and management
practices. It can allow domestic financial institutions to expand risky
activities at rates that far exceed their capacity to manage them. By
allowing domestic financial institutions access to complex derivative
instruments it can make evaluating bank balance sheets more difficult
and stretch the capacity of regulators to monitor risks. External
financial liberalization in allowing foreign entry into the domestic
financial markets may facilitate easy access to an abundant supply of
offshore funding and risky foreign investments. A currency crisis or
unexpected devaluation (such as in the Asian crisis) can undermine the
solvency of banks and corporations which may have built up large
liabilities denominated in foreign currency and are unprotected against
foreign exchange rate changes.
The ideal free market is one that every one should be free to
enter, to participate in, and to leave. However, events in the recent
financial crises have led many of us to believe that in the freest of
markets, there is a need to ensure that free flow of capital does not
destabilize the market itself.
Indeed, calls for reform have gained increasing support and
credence within the international community with the unfolding of the
devastating effects of the crisis beginning mid-1997. There are
fundamental weaknesses in the existing global financial infrastructure
that have caused and exacerbated these effects. These weaknesses
include the inordinate power of highly leveraged institutions to move
markets, the destabilizing force of volatile short-term capital flows and
the failure of existing credit assessment systems to adequately inform
market participants of increasing risk of default. One example of this
mounting consensus was the express recognition by G7 countries at a
meeting in Cologne of the need to strengthen the international
financial architecture. There are now increasing calls for greater
transparency and regulation of hedge funds and greater awareness of
the dangers of volatile short-term capital flows.
5.3 Constituents of Sound Governance in the Contemporary
World
On the domestic front, we would have to ask ourselves this
question: has our Indian financial markets kept pace with change?
Whilst markets have become global, applicable rules and regulations
remain predominantly parochial or local. From a regulator`s
perspective, the challenge for us in a global market is to design the
regulatory and structural framework which will allow the market to
function efficiently, competitively in a fair and level playing field
environment, ensuring at the same time that the market is not subject
to highly concentrated or destabilizing forces that would disrupt its
functioning.
The recent crisis also shows up the need for a careful and
sequenced approach towards liberalizing a country`s capital account.
The experiences of Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia clearly tell us that
there is no prescribed formula on sequencing. However, it is important
to recognize that countries vary greatly in their levels of economic and
financial development, in their institutional structures, in their legal
systems and business practices, and their capacity to manage change in
a host of areas relevant for financial liberalization. It is in recognition
of this that the IMF policy-setting committee and subsequently the
Finance Ministers and central bank governors of the G7 industrial
nations, in the fall of 1998, stressed that a country opening its capital
account must do so in an orderly, gradual, and well sequenced manner.
Issues of liberalisation versus protectionism would need to be
considered at great length to ensure that a country is competitive in a
global trading environment
Giving certainty to international financial transactions and
protection to Foreign Investments
International trade and finance, because of its global nature,
necessarily involves many areas which may give rise to uncertainty as
to the applicability of the contract under which certain trade and
financing arrangements are made. These areas range from political
issues and political stability to sovereign intervention of the economy,
certainty of applicable laws as well as independence of the judiciary.
In less than half a century, the states of Asia have moved
through a whole range of stances which could be adopted towards
foreign investment. The immediate post-colonial period was
characterized by a period of hostility towards foreign investment,
motivated by the belief that the ending of economic imperialism alone
will bring about true independence. The ensuing period was dominated
by a debate about the regulation of multinational corporations and the
fear that they posed a threat to state sovereignty. In this period, laws
were devised to control the entry of foreign investment and the manner
in which such foreign investment operated in the host country after
entry. The third and present period is a period of pragmatism where
the dominant view is that foreign investment, if properly harnessed,
can be an instrument which generates rapid economic development.
Competition for the limited investment that is available means that
each state country which is bent on a foreign investment led growth
strategy must make its laws as hospitable to the foreign investor as the
other state which is also bent on a similar strategy.
As much as there is competition among countries to attract
foreign investment, there is competition among multinational
corporations to enter host countries. Whereas previously the market
was dominated by large multinationals, now, there are small and
medium enterprises which can transfer more appropriate technology
and bring sufficient assets for investment.
This open door policy towards foreign investment in developing
countries is typically achieved through careful screening of entry by
administrative agencies which have been established for the purpose
and regulation of the process of foreign investment after entry has
been made. After entry, there is continued surveillance of the foreign
investment to ensure that the foreign investment keeps to the
conditions upon which entry was permitted. In this regard, attitudes to
foreign investment protection and dispute resolution will be affected
by the new strategies adopted towards foreign investment.
In the context of the new strategies which have been developed
by controlling entry and the later surveillance of operations of foreign
investment, the foreign investment has ceased to be a contract based
matter and had become a process initiated by a contract no doubt but
controlled at every point through the public law machinery of the state.
The old notions of foreign investment protection which concentrated
on the making of the contract and the contract as the basis of all rights
of the foreign investor would inevitably become obsolete. This
transformation which has taken place is crucial to the devising of
effective methods of foreign investment protection. The subject matter
of the protection has also changed in that not only physical assets of
the foreign investor but his intangible assets which include intellectual
property rights as well as public law rights to licences and privileges
have become the subject of protection.
The proposition that contractual provisions in an agreement
concluded with a host country offer little protection to foreign
investment must be qualified in a situation when a bilateral investment
treaty has been entered between the state of the foreign investor and
the host country. The result will be different, for the contract becomes
effectively internationalized as a result of the existence of such a
treaty. It is a basic proposition of international law that any matter that
is essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state could be
internationalized if it is made the subject of an international treaty. The
existence of a bilateral investment treaty which covers the foreign
investment then internationalizes the whole process of foreign
investment which would otherwise have been a process that takes
place entirely within the sovereign jurisdiction of the host state. But,
whether this result will follow depends on the terms of the bilateral
investment treaty.
Bilateral investment treaties are obviously regarded as
important by both capital exporting and capital importing states. But,
these treaties are not uniform and they do not have the ability to create
any uniform law on foreign investment protection. But their existence
adds to investor confidence and creates an expectation of investor
protection. The importance of these treaties lies in the several results
they achieve. The first is a signaling function about the national policy
towards foreign investment.
Another advantage is that the foreign investment contract in the
context of bilateral investment treaties could have the effect of forming
assets protected by the bilateral investment treaties. This will also
include licences and other advantages obtained from the government
during the course of the foreign investment. Whereas without the
bilateral investment treaty these licences and advantages may have
been without protection under general international law, they new
receive protection as a result of the wide definition of property in the
bilateral investment treaty. Whether the host country did intend that its
administrative decisions be subjected to international review as a result
of the treaty will remain a moot point. But, it remains a possible result
if the treaty.
5.4 The Investment Guarantee Agreement (IGA)
The Investment Guarantee Agreement protects parties involved in an
international transaction from non-commercial risks such as
nationalization and expropriation. The IGA will provide a foreign
investor with the following:
protection against nationalization and expropriation;
prompt and adequate compensation in the event of nationalization or
expropriation under a lawful or public purpose;
free remittance of currency, profits, capital or other fees on
investment;
settlement of investment disputes either through a process of
consultation through diplomatic channels or if such process fails, for referral
to the International Court of Justice. Disputes in connection with investments,
under IGAs should first be resolved through local judicial facilities. In the
event of failure to settle, it would be referred to the Convention on the
Settlement of Investment Disputes or the International Adhoc Arbitral
Tribunal established under the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations
Commission on International Trade Law.
5.5 Trade Disputes Settlements
Another aspect of international trade is the availability of
acceptable dispute resolution form. Globalization of trade obviously
involves greater potential for generating international trade disputes.
The international business community looks for prompt, economical,
and fair conflict-resolution mechanisms. Negotiation, conciliation,
litigation, and arbitration are well-known conflict-resolution devices.
Direct negotiations and conciliation may resolve a conflict. However,
when parties fail to solve the controversy through direct negotiations,
they have two choices: litigation or arbitration.
Within the context of the GATS, there is an express provision
for trade settlement dispute where countries have disputes in relation
to commitments made under the agreement. The WTO have provided
for procedures in relation to a dispute settlement process. The dispute
settlement procedure is considered to be the WTO's most individual
contribution to the stability of the global economy. The WTO's
procedure underscores the rule of law, and it makes the trading system
more secure and predictable. It is clearly structured, with flexible
timetables set for completing a case. First rulings are made by a panel,
appeals based on points of law are possible, and all final rulings or
decisions are made by the WTO's full membership. No single country
can block a decision. It is indeed a challenge to us all to be able to
grapple with some of the abovementioned issues and adopt appropriate
responses.
Review Questions
1. Discuss the Current Trends and Difficulties faced in the Capital
Markets.
2. Explain in detail the issues relating to Liberalization Vs
Protectionism
3. What do you mean by open door?
4. What is Investment Guarantee Agreement (IGA)?
5. Explain Trade Disputes Settlements in detail.
References
1. Wong Sau Ngan. Wong is a specialist in Legal & Regulatory Policy for
Securities Commission, Policy & Development Division (Malaysia)
2.MauricS"'Dlevi,'International Financial Management., McGraw-Hill.
3. C. Jeevanandham, EXCHANGE RATE ARITHMETIC, Sultan
Chand.
4. Apte.P.G., International Financial Management, Tata Mc. Graw
Hill,NewDelhi.
5. Henning, C.N., W.Piggot and W.H.Scott, International Financial
Management, Mc.Graw Hill, International Edition.
LESSON - 1
EXCHANGE RATES DETERMINANTS
Objective: In this lesson, we will introduce you the meaning of exchange rates determinants.
This lesson is concept based. After you workout this lesson, you should be able to:
Know the meaning of exchange rate determinants.
Understand the theories of exchange rate determinants.
EXCHANGE RATES DETERMINANTS: AN OVERVIEW
Forex market is the largest financial market in terms of size. This is so irrespective of the fact
that it is fully over the counter market. By far the largest market for currencies is the inter-bank
market, which trades spot and forward contracts. The market can be termed as efficient with
enough breadth, depth and resilience.
The basic theories underlying the exchange rates ?
1. Law of One Price: In competitive markets free of transportation costs barriers to trade,
identical products sold in different countries must sel at the same price when the prices are
expressed in terms of their same currency.
Purchasing power parity: As inflation forces prices higher in one country but not another
country, the exchange rate will change to reflect the change in relative purchasing power of the
two currencies.
2. Interest rate effects: If capital is allowed to flow freely, the exchange rates stabilize at a
point where equality of interest is established.
The Fisher Effect: the nominal interest rate (r) in a country is determined by the real interest
rate R and the inflation rate i as follows: (1 + r) = (1 + R)(1 + i)
International Fisher Effect: the spot rate should change in an equal amount but in the
opposite direction to the difference in interest rates between two countries.
S1 - S2
----------- x 100 = i2 ? i1
S2
Where: S1 = spot rate using indirect quotes at beginning of the period;
S2 = spot rate using indirect quotes at the end of the period;
i = respective nominal interest rates for country 1 and 2.
Though the above principles attempt to explain the movement of exchange rates, the
assumptions behind these two theories [free flow of capital] are seldom seen and thus these
theories can`t be applied directly.
The dual forces of demand and supply determine exchange rates. Various factors affect these,
which in turn affect the exchange rates.
The business environment: Positive indications (in terms of govt. policy, competitive
advantages, market size etc) increase the demand of the currency, as more and more entities
want to invest there. This investment is for two basic motives ?purely business motive, and for
risk diversification purposes. Foreign direct investment is for taking advantage of the
comparative advantages and the economies of scale. Portfolio investment is mainly done for
risk diversification purposes.
Stock market: The major stock indices also have a correlation with the currency rates. The
Dow is the most influential index on the dollar. Since the mid-1990s, the index has shown a
strong positive correlation with the dollar as foreign investors purchased US equities. Three
major forces affect the indices: 1) Corporate earnings, forecast and actual; 2) Interest rate
expectations and 3) Global considerations. Consequently, these factors channel their way
through the local currency.
Political Factors: All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations
about the new ruling party. A threat to coalition governments in France, India, Germany or
Italy will certainly affect the exchange rate. For e.g. Political or financial instability in Russia is
also a red flag for EUR/USD, because of the substantial amount of Germany investment
directed to Russia.
Economic Data: Economic data items like labor report (payrolls, unemployment rate and
average hourly earnings), CPI, PPI, GDP, international trade, productivity, industrial
production, consumer confidence etc. also affect the exchange rate fluctuations. Confidence in
a currency is the greatest determinant of the exchange rates. Decisions are made keeping in
mind the future developments that may affect the currency. And any adverse sentiments have
a contagion effect. The observers have generally concluded that devaluations should be
avoided at al costs, since the panics have almost al followed currency devaluations. Some are
of the view that is it not the devaluation, but rather the defense of the exchange rate preceding
the crisis that opens the door to financial panic. The devaluation, which follows the depletion
of reserves usually, alerts the market to the exhaustion of reserves, a state of affairs, which is
not fully apparent to many market participants before the devaluation takes place. Holders
begin to convert their money into foreign exchange in expectation of devaluation, and suppose
that the central bank defends the exchange rate, by buying high-powered money and selling
dol ars. Thus, a panic can unfold simply by the belief of creditors that it will indeed occur. In
the past four years, mainly three types of events have triggered such panics:
1) The sudden discovery that reserves is less than previously believed
2) Unexpected devaluation (often in part for its role in signaling the depletion of reserves); and,
3) Contagion from neighboring countries, in a situation of perceived vulnerability (low
reserves, high short-term debt, overvalued currency).
Government influence: A country's government may reduce the growth in the money
supply, raising interest rates, and encouraging demand for its currency. Or a government may
simply buy or sell forex to maintain stability or to support either exporters or importers.
Productivity of an economy: An increase in productivity of an economy tends to impact
exchange rates. It affects are more prominent if the increase is in the traded sector. A recent
study by the federal reserve bank of New York shows that over a 30 yrs. Period [1970-1999]
productivity changes and the dollar /euro real exchange rates have moved in tandem.
AN ILLUSTRATION
1. The exchange rate often fluctuated quite a lot over the short term, but followed a more
rational path over the long term.
2. That against the background of over the twenty-one month period from the beginning of
2000 to 11 September 2001 the rand maintained an almost consistent and fairly well-defined
declining trend against the US dol ar.
Possible reasons attributed:
1. The internal purchasing power of a currency and its exchange rate tend to move together
over time. Historically, South Africa has had a faster than average inflation rate and rand has
had a declining trend against, for example, US dol ar.
2. A currency with above average inflation and that tends to depreciate will tend to have higher
than average inflation rates. The more than average interest rates in South Africa made rand
more attractive and valuable.
2. Due to steady depreciation of the rand during 2000 and the first half of 2001 most market
participants came to the view that the currency was weak and it is likely that they took
decisions to help protect themselves against the contagion effect A perfectly legitimate large
transaction by one of the major market players might have led to the emergence of a herd
mentality resulting in the run on the rand. The steady decline was a result of economic,
political, policy and confidence factors and other factors that build over months.
3. The South African exchange rate is determined by forces of demand and supply. The
system of a managed float is by its nature unstable. Volatile movements in the exchange rate
can be expected from time to time.
4. There were a number of variables at play at the same time and certainly in our attempts to
try and understand what was going on, we have been unable to say what caused it was A and
not B. It was a complex set of issues not least of which is the confidence that South Africans
have in their own country and their own economy and so it has been difficult for us to say that
there was one. There were lots of things happening at the same time.
LESSON - 2
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE,
EXPOSURE
&
RISK
AND
CLASSIFICATION, ESTIMATION & PRACTICE OF THE EXPOSURE
Objectives: In this lesson, we will introduce you to the meaning and nature of foreign
exchange exposure, risk and estimation of the exposure line. This lesson is concept based.
After you workout this lesson, you should be able to:
Know the meaning of foreign exchange exposure, risk and classification, estimation &
practice of exposure.
Understand the nature of foreign exchange exposure and risk.
THE MEANING AND NATURE OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE EXPOSURE
The values of a firm's assets, liabilities and operating income vary continually in response to
changes in myriad economic and financial variables such as exchange rates, interest rates,
inflation rates, relative prices and so forth. We can label these uncertainties as macro-economic
environmental risks. In addition, uncertainties related to its operating business such as
interruptions in raw materials supplies, labour troubles, success or failure of a new product or
technology and so forth obviously have an impact on the firm's performance. These can be
grouped under the heading of core business risks.
While core business risks are specific to firm, macro-economic uncertainties affect al firms in
the economy. However, the extent and nature of impact of even macro-economic risks
crucially depend upon the nature of a firm's business. For instance, fluctuations of exchange
rate will affect net importers and net exporters quite differently; the impact of interest rate
fluctuations will be very different on a bank from that on a manufacturing firm; oil price
gyrations will affect an airline in one way and an oil producer in a quite different way.
The nature of macro-economic uncertainty can be illustrated by a number of commonly
encountered situations. An appreciation of the value of a foreign currency (or equivalently,
a depreciation of the domestic currency), increases the domestic currency value of a firm's
assets and liabilities denominated in the foreign currency-foreign currency receivables and
payables, bank deposits and loans, etc. It will also change domestic currency cash flows
from exports and imports. An increase in interest rates reduces the market value of a
portfolio of fixed-rate bonds and may increase the cash outflow on account of interest
payments. Acceleration in the rate of inflation may increase the value of unsold stocks, the
revenue from future sales as well as the future costs of production. Thus the firm is
"exposed" to uncertain changes in a number of variables in its environment. These
variables are sometimes called Risk Factors.
Uncertainties arising out of fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates and relative prices of
key commodities such as oil, copper, etc, create strategic exposure and risk for a firm. As we
will see below, the long run response of the firm to these risks can involve significant changes
in the firm's strategic posture choice of product-market combinations, sourcing of inputs, and
choice of technology, location of manufacturing activities, strategic alliances and so forth.
The primary focus of this book is on the firm's exposure to changes in exchange rates and
interest rates. However, as we will see later, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation rates
are intimately interrelated and, are in turn related to a whole complex of macroeconomic
variables. In many cases, it may be very difficult to isolate the effect of changes in anyone of
them on the firm's assets, liabilities and cash flows.
It is not uncommon to find the terms exposure and risk being used interchangeably. However,
as several authors have pointed out the two are not identical. Exposure is a measure of the
sensitivity of the value of a financial item (asset, liability or cash flow) to changes in the
relevant risk factor while risk is a measure of the variability of the value of the item attributable
to the risk factor. Let us understand this distinction clearly: from April 1993 to July 1995 the
exchange rate between rupee and US dollar-was almost rock steady. Consider a firm whose
business involved both exports to and imports from the US. During this period the firm would
have readily agreed that its operating cash flows were very sensitive to the rupee-dollar
exchange rate i.e. it had significant exposure to this exchange rate; at the same time it would
have said that it did not perceive significant risk on this account because given the stability of
the rupee exchange rate, the probability of large fluctuations in its operating cash flows on
account of rupee dollar fluctuations would have been perceived to be minimal. Thus the
magnitude of risk is determined by the magnitude of exposure and the degree of variability in
the relevant risk factor.
EXPOSURE AND RISK
Exposure of a firm to a risk factor is the sensitivity of the real value of a firm`s assets,
liabilities or operating income, expressed in its functional currency, to unanticipated
changes in the risk factor. The important points of risk are as follows:
Values of assets, liabilities or operating income are to be denominated in the
functional currency of the firm. This is the primary currency of the firm and in which
its financial statements are published. For most firms it is the domestic currency of
their country.
Exposure is defined with respect to the real values i.e. values adjusted for inflation.
While theoretically this is the correct way of assessing exposure, in practice due to the
difficulty of dealing with an uncertain inflation rate this adjustment is often ignored i.e.
exposure is estimated with reference to changes in nominal values.
The definition stresses that only unanticipated changes in the relevant risk factor are to
be considered. The reason is that markets will have already made an allowance for
anticipated changes. For instance, an exporter invoicing a foreign buyer in the buyer's
currency will build an allowance for the expected depreciation of that currency into
the price. A lender will adjust the rate of interest charged on the loan to incorporate an
al owance for the expected depreciation. From an operational point of view, the
question is how do we separate a given change in exchange rate or interest rate into its
anticipated and unanticipated components since only the actual change is observable?
One possible answer is to use the relevant forward rate as the expected value of the
underlying risk factor. For instance, one possible estimate of what the exchange rate
will be three months from now is today three month forward rate. Suppose that the
price of a pound sterling in terms of rupees for immediate delivery (the so called spot
rate) is Rs. 80.00 while the six month forward rate is Rs. 80.20. We can say that the
anticipated depreciation of the rupee is 20 paisa per pound in six months. If six months
later, the spot rate turns out to be Rs. 80.30, there has been an unanticipated
depreciation of 10 paisa per pound.
The change in exchange rate is the only risk factor affecting the value of the exposed item.
This will indeed be the case if the foreign currency value of the item is fixed.
Currency Exposure
Accounting Exposure
Operating Exposure
Translation
Contingent
Translation
Competition
ESTIMATION OF THE EXPOSURE LINE
The interpretation of the exposure relationship as a regression equation suggests that an
estimate of 1 can be obtained by the method of ordinary least squares. We can collect
historical data on V and SU and fit a straight line to the data by the least squares method. The
slope of the fitted line then is the measure of exposure.
As we have seen above, in the case of items with contractual y fixed foreign currency values,
there is an exact systematic relation between V and Su and all our data points will fall precisely
on the line. In the case of items whose foreign currency values can change, there will be
"noise" in the relationship due to the random element. The data points will not fall exactly on
a straight line; we can statistically estimate the parameter 1' However, in this case, the
reliability of the estimated equation will depend upon the relative strengths of the systematic
and random components of equation.
More pertinent however is the fact that the exposure relation may not be stable, i.e. the
underlying "true" values of the parameters 0 and 1 may be changing over time particularly if
the relationship is being estimated for the entire collection of a firm's assets or liabilities and
the composition of these collections changes over time. Further, in practice it may be quite
difficult to obtain estimates of changes in real domestic currency values of exposed items. In
practice therefore, estimation of exposure requires that the finance manager should construct
alternative scenarios of exchange rates, interest rates and inflation rates and examine the
impact of each combination on the various items in the firm's balance sheet and projected
income statement.
The idea of foreign exchange exposure as the systematic relation between the change in
real domestic currency value of an item and the unanticipated change in exchange rate can
be extended to multiple exposures, for example when the firm has receivables in many
foreign currencies. The relationship can be written as
V = 0 + 1 ( Su1) + 2 ( Su2) + . . + n ( Sun) +
The slope coefficients 1, 2 . . n measure the exposure with respect to the corresponding
exchange rate. One can also include other risk factors in the above equation to estimate the
exposure to them.
Finally, it must be recognized that exchange rate changes can affect a firm even if all or most
of its assets, liabilities and cash flows are denominated in its home currency. This is because of
the intimate connection between exchange rates and other macro-economic variables like
interest rates and price level. For instance, in response to an actual or incipient depreciation of
the home currency, the monetary authorities might resort to raising interest rates at home in
order to attract short-term foreign capital or make it difficult for domestic residents to borrow
home currency to buy and hold foreign currency. This in turn will adversely affect the market
value of a portfolio of fixed interest securities held by the firm. For a non financial firm selling
consumer durables like cars, higher interest rates may be bad news. Changes in exchange rates
will affect the relative competitiveness of a firm which produces an import substitute and
hence will affect its future sales and cash flows. An appreciation of the home currency reduces
home currency price of imports; if a firm produces an import-competing product, such an
event would have a depressing effect on its sales. Thus even a "purely domestic" firm is
exposed to exchange rate changes.
In contrast to exposure which is a measure of the response of value to changes in the relevant
risk factor, risk is a measure of variability of the value of an item attributable to variations in
the risk factor. There are many ways to quantify this concept of variability. The one most often
used by statisticians is the so cal ed variance or its square-root known as standard deviation.
The variance of a random variable is a probability-weighted measure of departures from its
average value. Using this measure of variability, foreign exchange risk can be defined as:
The variance of the real domestic currency value of assets, liabilities or operating income
attributable to unanticipated changes in exchange rates.
Risk as defined here depends upon the exposure as 1 appears in this relation. It also depends
upon the variance of the unanticipated changes in exchange rates.
Consider an example; a firm has a 90 day payable of 100,000 Swiss francs. The current spot
rate is Rs 37.00/SFr. The 90 day forward rate is Rs 37.50. The spot rate 90 days hence is
assumed to have a, normal distribution with a mean of Rs 37.50 and a standard deviation of Rs
0.05.11 Denote the spot rate by So' and the spot rate 90 days from today by S3' The total
change in exchange rate from today to 90 days from today is (S3 - So). This can be broken
down into
S3 - So = [S3 - E(S3)] + [E(S3) - So] = Su + Sa
Where, E(S3) means "expected value of S3", SU is the unanticipated component of the change
and Sa is the anticipated component. Thus suppose the spot rate 90 days hence is 37.90. The
total change is Rs 0.90 (S3-So), anticipated change is 0.50 [= E(S3) - So] and unanticipated
change is 0.40 [= S3 - E(S3)]. Since S3 has a normal distribution with mean 37.50 and standard
deviation Rs 0.05, [S3 - E(S3)] will have a normal distribution with mean zero and identical
standard deviation of Rs 0.05. Since the unanticipated change in the rupee value of the payable
is given by 100,000 ( SU), it will also have a normal distribution with mean zero and standard
deviation of Rs 5,000. Using the properties of the normal distribution, one can say with 95%
confidence that the unanticipated change in the value of the payable will lie between -10,000
and +10,000. Since the anticipated change is Rs 50,000 [= 0.50 x 100000] the total change will
be between Rs 40,000 to Rs 60,000.
Thus, the measure of risk tel s us how volatile the values of the firm's assets, liabilities or
operating income are in the face of fluctuations in the underlying risk factor, in this case, the
exchange rate.
Instead of variance, one can estimate the possible range i.e. the difference between the highest
and lowest values of the item given certain assumptions about the possible range of variation
in the exchange rate. In a similar vein, one can construct alternative scenarios of exchange rate
movements (or movements in any other risk factor). The "best case" and the "worst case"
scenarios correspond to the most favourable and the least favourable circumstances. For
instance, for a company with a payable in foreign currency, "best case" would correspond to
the largest depreciation (or smallest appreciation) of the foreign currency considered likely and
the "worst case" would consider the maximum appreciation.
CLASSIFICATION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE EXPOSURE AND RISK
Since the advent of floating exchange rates in 1973, firms around the world have become
acutely aware of the fact that fluctuations in exchange rates expose their revenues, costs,
operating cash flows and hence their market value to substantial fluctuations. Firms which
have cross-border transactions-exports and imports of goods and services, foreign borrowing
and lending, foreign portfolio and direct investment, etc.-are directly exposed; but even
"purely domestic" firms which have absolutely no cross-border transactions are also exposed
because their customers, suppliers and competitors are exposed. Considerable effort has since
been devoted to identifying and categorizing currency exposure and developing more and
more sophisticated methods to quantify it.
In the short-term, the firm is faced with two kinds of exposures. It has certain contractual y
fixed payments and receipts in foreign currency such as export receivables, import payables,
interest payable on foreign currency loans and so forth. Most of these items are expected to be
settled within the upcoming financial year.
An unanticipated change in the exchange rate has an impact-favorable or adverse on its cash
flows. Such exposures are known as Transactions Exposures. In essence it is a measure of the
sensitivity of the home currency value of assets and liabilities which are denominated in
foreign currency, to unanticipated changes in exchange rates, when the assets or liabilities are
liquidated. The foreign currency values of these items are contractual y fixed i.e. do not vary
with exchange rate. Hence it is also known as contractual exposure.
Some typical situations which give rise to transactions exposure are:
(a)
A currency has to be converted in order to make or receive payment for goods and
services-import payables or export receivables denominated in a foreign currency.
(b) A currency has to be converted to repay a loan or make an interest payment.
(c)
A currency has to be converted to make a dividend payment, royalty payment, etc.
Note that in each case, the foreign currency value of the item is fixed; the
uncertainty pertains to the home currency value.
It is March 18, 2005. An Indian company has cleared an import shipment of specialty
chemicals. The invoice is for US$ 250,000 payable on September 20. The current exchange
rate is Rs 43.67 per dollar. The recent history of the exchange rate depicted below shows some
volatility. During the last six months or so, dollar has shown considerable weakness against all
currencies including the rupee. An adverse movement in exchange rate Viz. a sharp rise in
dol ar, will reduce the firm's cash flows. There is also the problem of how to value the imports
for the purpose of product costing and pricing decisions.
What should the firm do?
A US firm has exported some computer peripherals to a German buyer. For customer
relationship reasons the sale has been invoiced in buyer's currency viz. Euro. The invoice is for
$1,000,000 to be settled 60 days from now. The current exchange rate is $1.3250 per Euro.
The recent history of the dollar-euro rate Sl10wn below indicates an upward trend with some
fluctuations. The firm's bankers are fairly bullish about the Euro despite the reversionary
conditions in the major European economies viz. Germany and France. However, US treasury
secretary has expressed concern about the weak dollar.
What should the firm do?
Suppose a firm receives an export order, it fixes a price, manufactures the product, makes the
shipment and gives 90 days credit to the buyer who will pay in his currency. A company has
acquired a foreign currency receivable which will be liquidated before the next balance sheet
date. The company has a transaction exposure from the time it accepts the order till the time
the payment is received and converted into domestic currency. The exposure affects cash
flows during the current accounting period. If the foreign currency has appreciated between
the day the receivable was booked and the day the payment was received, the company makes
an exchange gain which may have tax implications. In a similar fashion, interest payments and
principal repayments due during the accounting period create transaction exposure.
Transaction risk can be defined as a measure of variability in the value of assets and
liabilities when they are liquidated.
The important points to be noted here are (1) transactions exposures usually have short time
horizons and (2) operating cash flows are affected.
Sometimes, a transaction is being negotiated, al the terms have been more or less finalized but
a contractual arrangement is yet to be entered into. In such cases the firm has an anticipated
cash flow exposure.
The other kind of short-term exposure is known as Translation Exposure also called
Accounting Exposure. A firm may have assets and liabilities denominated in a foreign
currency. These are not going to be liquidated in the foreseeable future but accounting
standards which govern the reporting and disclosure practices require that at the end of the
fiscal year the firm must translate the values of these foreign currency-denominated items into
its home currency and report these in its balance sheet. Translation risk is the related measure
of variability.
The key difference between transaction and translation exposure is that the former has impact
on cash flows while the latter has no direct effect on cash flows. (This is true only if there are
no tax effects arising out of translation gains and losses.)
Translation exposure typically arises when a parent multinational company is required to
consolidate a foreign subsidiary's financial statements with the parent's own statements after
translating the subsidiary's statements from its functional currency into the parent's home
currency. Thus suppose an Indian company has a UK subsidiary. At the beginning of the
parent's financial year the subsidiary has real estate, inventories and cash valued at,
respectively, ?1,000,000, ?200,000 and ?150,000. The spot rate is Rs 80 per pound sterling.
By the close of the financial year, these have changed to ?950,000, ?205,000 and ?160,000 re-
spectively. However, during the year, there has been a drastic depreciation of the pound to Rs
75. If the parent is required to translate the subsidiary's balance sheet from pound sterling into
rupees at the current exchange rate, it has "suffered" a translation loss. The translated value of
its assets has declined from Rs 10.80 crore to Rs 9.8625 crore. Note that no cash movement is
involved since the subsidiary is not to be liquidated. Also note that there must have been a
translation gain on the subsidiary's liabilities e.g., debt denominated in pound sterling.
There is broad agreement among finance theorists that translation losses and gains are only
national accounting losses and gains. The actual numbers will differ according to the
accounting practices followed and, depending upon the tax laws, there mayor may not be tax
implications and therefore real gains or losses. Accountants and corporate treasurers however
do not fully accept this view. They argue that even though no cash losses or gains are
involved, translation does affect the published financial statements and hence may affect
market valuation of the parent company's stock. Whether investors indeed suffer from
"translation illusion" is an empirical question. Some evidence from studies of the valuation of
American multinationals seems to indicate that investors are quite aware of the notional
character of these losses and gains and discount them in valuing the stock. For Indian
multinationals, translation exposure is a relatively less important consideration since as of
now; the law does not require translation and consolidation of foreign subsidiaries' financial
statements with those of the parent companies.
The second group of exposures, classified as long-term exposures consists of operating
exposure and strategic exposures. The principal focus here is on items which will have impact
on the cash flows of the firm in years to come and which may have a serious impact on the
competitive posture of the firm forcing it to restructure its business and redefine its long-term
strategy. Horizons are long, nothing is contractual y fixed and the impact of exchange rate
fluctuations can have substantial, sustained implications for the firm's bottom line and whose
values are not (yet) contractual y fixed in foreign currency terms.
Of the two kinds of long-term exposures, operating exposures capture the impact of
unanticipated exchange rate changes on the firm's revenues, operating costs and operating net
cash flows over a medium-term horizon-say up to three years.
Consider a firm which is involved in producing goods for export and/or import substitutes. It
may also import a part of its raw materials, components, etc. A change in exchange rate(s)
gives rise to a number of concerns for such a firm:
1.
What will be the effect on sales volume if prices are maintained? If prices are
changed? Should prices be changed? For instance, a firm exporting to a foreign
market might benefit from reducing its foreign currency price to the foreign
customers following an appreciation of the foreign currency; a firm which
produces import substitutes may contemplate an increase in its domestic currency
price to its domestic customers without hurting its sales. A firm supplying inputs
to customers who in turn are exporters will find that the demand for its product is
sensitive to exchange rates.
2.
Since a part of the inputs are imported, material costs will increase following a
depreciation of the home currency. Even if all inputs are locally purchased, if their
production requires imported inputs, the firm's material costs will be affected
following a change in exchange rate.
3.
Labour costs may also increase if cost of living increases and wages have to be
raised.
4.
Interest costs on working capital may rise if in response to depreciation the
authorities resort to monetary tightening.
5.
Exchange rate changes are usually accompanied by; if not caused by differences
in inflation across countries. Domestic inflation will increase the firms` material
and labour costs quite independently of exchange rate changes. This will affect its
competitiveness in all the markets but particularly so in markets where it is
competing with firms from other countries.
6.
Real exchange rate changes also alter income distribution across countries. A real
appreciation of the US dollar vis-?-vis say the Euro implies an increase in real
incomes of US residents and a fall in real incomes of Euro land. For an American
firm which sells both at home and exports to Europe, the net impact depends upon
the relative income elasticity in addition to any effect of relative price changes.
Thus, the total impact of a real exchange rate change on a firm`s sales, costs and margins
depends upon the response of consumers, suppliers, competitors and the government to this
macro-economic shock.
In general, an exchange rate change will affect both future revenues as well as operating costs
and hence the operating income. As we will see later, the net effect depends upon the complex
interaction of exchange rate changes, relative inflation rates at home and abroad, extent of
competition in the product and input markets, currency composition of the firm's costs as
compared to its competitors' costs, price elasticity of export and import demand and supply,
and so forth.
In the long run, exchange rate effects can undermine a firm competitive advantage by raising
its costs above those of its competitors or affecting its ability to service its market in other
ways. Such competitive exposure is often referred to as "Strategic Exposure" because it has
significant implications for some strategic business decisions. It influences the firm's choice of
product-market combinations, sources of inputs, location of manufacturing activity, decisions
as to whether foreign operations should be started.
A number of examples from recent and past history clearly bring out the nature of operating
and strategic exposure:
1.
In the late '70's Laker Airways started offering cut-price, trans-Atlantic air travel to
British tourists taking vacations in the US. The dollar was weak and tourist traffic
was strong. Laker then expanded its fleet by buying aircraft financed with dollar
borrowing. In late 1981 the dollar started rising and continued to climb for nearly
four years. On the one hand, the transaction exposure on servicing the dollar
liabilities and on the other the operating exposure due to falling tourist traffic
created a severe cash crunch for Laker. The strong dollar meant that US vacations
were an expensive proposition for British tourists. Ultimately, Laker Airways
went bankrupt.
2.
The relentless rise of the dollar during the first half of eighties eroded the
competitive position of many American firms. Corporations like Kodak found
that most of their costs were dollar denominated while their sales were in all parts
of the world, denominated in a number of foreign currencies which were falling
against the dollar. They faced stiff competition from Japanese firms such as Fuji
both in the US market as well as third country markets. Kodak could not raise its
prices without significant loss of sales. Companies like International Harvester
found themselves in a similar position and even moved some of their
manufacturing operations out of US.
3.
Conversely, when the dollar started falling against the Yen and Deutschemark
around mid-1985 and continued to fall for over two years, Japanese and German
car makers found their operating margins being squeezed. They responded partly
by starting manufacturing operations in US and partly by moving up-market into
premium-priced luxury cars where consumer sensitivity to price increases are
relatively less.
4.
Closer home, Indian manufacturers of cars and two-wheelers with significant
import content denominated in Yen have found that the persistent strength of the
Yen has meant cost increases which they have not always been able to pass on to
the consumer because of depressed demand conditions and competitive
considerations.
5.
American pharmaceutical multinationals like Merck have found that during
periods of strong dol ar, their cash flows denominated in dollars tend to shrink.
Bulk of their R&D expenditures is denominated in dol ars, and shortage of
internally generated cash tends to have adverse impact on their R&D budgets
which are a crucial factor in their long-run competitiveness.
In all these cases, exchange rate changes coupled with concomitant changes in relative costs
have had significant impact on the firms' ability to compete effectively in particular product-
market segments, to undertake good investment projects and thus to enhance their long-run
growth potential. This is the essence of operating and strategic exposure.
If a firm has no direct involvement in any cross-border transactions it is not immune to
exchange rate exposure. This "indirect" exposure is also in the nature of operating exposure
faced by the firm. Changes in exchange rates will most likely have an impact on its customers,
suppliers and competitors which in turn will force the firm to alter its operations and strategies.
Thus a firm which produces an import substitute for purely domestic consumption with inputs
denominated exclusively in home currency is nonetheless exposed to competitive exposure.
An appreciation of the home currency puts it at a disadvantage relative to its competitors who
sell the imported product. Similarly, a firm which buys its inputs from local firms who in turn
have significant import content is as surely affected by exchange rate changes as a firm which
directly imports some of its inputs. A firm which supplies intermediates to an exporter faces
operating exposure even though it has no direct involvement in exports or imports. Finally,
changes in exchange rates may trigger policy responses by the government which affects all
the firms in the economy.
An alternative but similar in spirit approach to classification of currency exposure focuses on
the length of the time horizon and whether or not the exposure impacts on the end-of-the-
horizon financial statements. For detailed discussions of this approach the reader should
consult Antl (1989) and Hekman (1989). In this approach the term accounting exposure is
used for short-term exposures which will have an impact on the financial results-income
statement and balance sheet-for the immediate upcoming financial reporting period. It includes
contractual transactions exposures as defined above, exposures on anticipated cash flows
denominated in foreign currency and balance sheet exposures of foreign operations-what we
have referred to as translation exposures. Depending upon the time profile of the anticipated
cash flows and the changes in exchange rate, the cash flows impact would show up partly as
operating variance and partly as a translation adjustment. Operating exposure is defined as
above as the sensitivity of future operating profits to unanticipated changes in the exchange
rate. Here the horizon is medium-term-say about 3 years-and the firm is expected to have
some operational flexibility such as varying prices, sourcing and so forth. Balance sheet
impact of translation gains or losses is left out of consideration. Strategic exposure refers to a
still horizon and contemplates longer-term operational flexibility such as changing product-
market mix, shifting location of operations and adopting new technologies. Finally, a
comprehensive concept-which is very difficult to operational- is: "value-based" exposure
which focuses on the impact of currency fluctuations on market value of the firm. It must take
into account both short-term accounting exposures as wel as operating and strategic flexibility
in responding to currency movements.
THE PRACTICE OF EXPOSURE MANAGEMENT
There have been a number of investigations of corporate currency exposure management
practices. The Important ones among these are Bodnar and Gentry (1993), Bodnar, Marston
and Hayt (1998), Bodnar and Gebhardt (1999) and Loderer and Pichler (2000). Using
secondary data, these studies investigate the reasons why corporations do or do not manage
currency risk, the methods and instruments they use, whether they make any conscious effort
to assess and quantify their currency risk profiles and whether they are any systematic
relationships between firm characteristics such as size and risk management practices. While
detailed findings vary, some broad patterns seem to be common across industries and
countries. The key findings can be summarized as follows:
1. Very few corporations undertake an accurate, quantitative assessment of how
unanticipated exchange rate changes impact on the value of their firm. Even firms
which are aware of the serious imp~ currency risk can have on the valuation of their
stock have at best a qualitative understanding currency exposure-whether a
depreciation of their home currency will improve or adversely after their value.
2. Most firms find it very difficult to gauge the long-term exposure of their businesses to
currency fluctuations.
3. Relatively more but still a minority of the firms have some reliable quantitative
understanding of II exposure of their operating cash flows to currency fluctuations.
4. A surprisingly large number of firms appear to think that they are not exposed to
currency risk or that the risk is trivial. Most firms do not seem to be aware that indirect
exposure can some times be quite significant.
5. Even among firms which engage in systematic assessment of their currency risk
currency risk management, the focus is almost exclusively on short-term
transactions exposures extending up to a year. Here too, firms do not appear to take an
aggregate view of exposures preferring to deal with them individually.
6. Long-term operating exposures are dealt with by "on balance sheet" operating
mechanisms. An
such structural defense mechanisms are:
(i)
Setting up plants and sourcing of inputs in different currency areas.
(i )
Have foreign subsidiaries borrow in local currencies
(i i)
Employee wages indexed to the ex change rate
(iv)
Redesign or upgrade products to cater to more price inelastic market
segments.
Firms also react to exchange rate changes after the fact by revising pricing policies. Thus the
practice of currency risk management, particularly long-term exposure, is much less precise
and sophisticated than what the development of the theory would suggest even among the
large firms in advanced countries.
LESSON - 3
EXPOSURE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Objectives: In this lesson, we will introduce you corporate exposure management policy and
MIS for exposure management. After you workout this lesson, you should be able to:
Know the meaning of corporate exposure management policy, MIS for exposure
management and transaction exposure.
Understand the application of corporate exposure management policy and MIS for
exposure management.
CORPORTAE EXPOSURE MANAGEMENT POLICY
Here we focus on the risk management process and addresses the issues involved in setting up
and implementing an exposure management system. Management of risk and exposure is an
extremely important task and the effectiveness with which it is performed can have serious
implications for a company's survival. It is not just a question of using particular instruments
like forwards, futures or options to hedge individual exposures; deeper issues have to be
addressed. Among them are:
(a)
The company's strategic business posture, attitude towards risk and its risk
tolerance.
(b)
Organizational design to implement a coherent policy.
(c)
Monitoring and control mechanisms.
(d)
Implications for managerial performance evaluation.
(e)
Possible conflict of interest between a parent company and its global subsidiaries.
Consequently, top management must get intimately involved in the process of designing the
policy and ensure the participation of all those who have contributions to make as also those
who might be affected by it.
It is obvious that exposure management policy and its implementation cannot be divorced
from the particular set of circumstances which condition a firm's decision-making and
operations. Hence it would be foolhardy to attempt to provide a framework with universal
applicability. Our aim in this chapter is only to bring out the critical dimensions-the questions
that must be addressed in the process of evolving a risk management policy and related
systems. The answers to these questions must be situation specific.
In the next section, we briefly outline the steps involved in the risk management process. Our
exposition here draws on Lessard (1995) who discusses these issues in a somewhat different
context. Fol owing this, we discuss the issues related to organizational structure, al ocation of
responsibility and performance measurement. In the last section, we briefly outline the
arguments for and against centralization of the exposure management function in the case of a
global corporation.
INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR EXPOSURE MANAGEMENT
Effective exposure management requires a well-designed management information system
(MIS). Exposures above a certain minimum size must be immediately reported to the
executive or department responsible for exposure management. The three types of exposures-
transactions, translation and operating must be clearly separated. In the case of cash flow
exposures, the report must state the timing and amount of foreign currency cash flows,
whether either or both are known with certainty or, if uncertain the degree of uncertainty
associated with timing or amount. The exposure management team must evolve a procedure
of assessing the risk associated with these exposures by adopting a clearly articulated
forecasting method scenario approach. The benchmark for comparing the alternative scenarios
must be clearly stated. As argued above, the appropriate benchmark for short-term transactions
exposures is the relevant forward rate.
If a discretionary hedging posture is to be adopted, stop-loss guidelines must be clearly
articulated. These can take the form of specified levels of forward rate or specified changes in
the spot rate which when crossed would automatically trigger appropriate hedging actions.
All exposed positions including their hedges if any should be monitored at frequent intervals
to estimate the mark-to-market value of the entire portfolio consisting of the underlying
exposures and their corresponding hedges.
When a particular exposure is extinguished, a performance assessment must be carried out by
comparing the actual all-in rate achieved with the benchmark. This should be done at regular
intervals with the frequency of assessment being determined by the size of exposures and their
time profiles. Periodic reviews must be carried out to ensure that the risk scenarios being
considered are not far removed from actual developments in exchange rates due to large
forecasting errors.
Effective management of operating exposures requires far more information and judgmental
inputs from operating managers. Pricing and sourcing decisions must involve the exchange
rate dimension and its likely impact on future operating cash flows. A strategic review of the
entire business model must incorporate realistic assessment of the impact of exchange rate
fluctuations on the firm's entire operations in the medium to long term.
MANAGEMENT OF TRANSACTIONS EXPOSURE
Here we have defined the various types of exchange rate exposure and the associated risk that
firms are subject to as a consequence of fluctuating exchange rate. We must now address the
question of how to reduce or avoid this exposure. It deals with management of transactions
exposure call that transaction exposure refers to the change in the home currency value of an
item whose foreign currency value is contractual y fixed.
The terms hedging and speculation that appear in the title of this chapter need to be clearly
defined. The former will be understood to mean a transaction undertaken specifically to offset
some exposure arising out of the firm's usual operations while the latter will refer to deliberate
creation of a position for the express purpose of generating a profit from exchange rate
fluctuations, accepting the added risk. With this definition, a decision not to hedge an exposure
arising out of operations is also equivalent to speculation.
Management of transactions exposure has two significant dimensions. First, the treasurer must
decide whether and to what extent any exposure should be explicitly hedged. The nature of the
firm's operations may provide some natural hedges. Its market position may occasionally
permit it to entirely avoid transaction exposure. At other times, these internal hedges may be
quite imperfect or too costly because of their adverse effects on sales or profit margins. Having
decided to hedge whole or part of an exposure, the treasurer must evaluate alternative hedging
strategies.
USING THE FORWARD MARKETS FOR HEDGING TRANSACTIONS EXPOSURE:
In the normal course of business, a firm will have several contractual exposures in various
currencies maturing at various dates. The net exposure in a given currency at a given date is
simply the difference between the total inflows and total outflows to be settled on that date.
Thus suppose Fantasy Jewelry Co. has the following items outstanding:
Item
Value
Days to maturity
1. USD receivable
800,000
60
2. EUR payable
2,000,000
90
3. USD interest payable
100,000
180
4. USD payable
200,000
60
5. USD purchased forward
300,00
60
6. USD loan instalment due
250,00
60
7. EUR purchased forward
1,000,000
90
Its net exposure in USD at 60 days is
(800,000 + 300,000) - (200,000 + 250,000) = + USD 650,000
Whereas, it has a net exposure in EUR -1,000,000 at 90 days.
The use of forward contracts to hedge transactions exposure at a single date is quite
straightforward. A contractual net inflow of foreign currency is sold forward and a contractual
net outflow is bought forward. This removes all uncertainty regarding the domestic currency
value of the receivable or payable. Thus in the above example, to hedge the 60-day USD
exposure Fantasy Jewelry Co. can sell forward USD 650,(0) while for the EUR exposure it
can buy EUR 1,000,000 90 days forward.
What about exposures at different dates? One obvious solution is to hedge each exposure
separately with a forward sale or purchase contract as the case may be. Thus in the example,
the firm can hedge the 60-day USD exposure with a forward sale and the 180-day USD
exposure with a forward purchase.
The Cost of a Forward Hedge
An important and often misunderstood concept is that of cost of forward hedging. It is a
common fallacy to claim that the cost of forward hedging is the forward discount or premium.
(If the foreign currency is sold at a discount, the discount is claimed to be the "cost" of the
hedge; if it is bought at a premium, the premium is regarded as the cost. On this view,
premium gained on forward sale or discount obtained on forward purchase is a "negative cost"
or a gain).
The genesis of this fallacy is in the accounting procedure used to record transactions
denominated in foreign currency and for which a forward hedge is used. Suppose an Indian
firm buys equipment worth Euro 1,000,000 from a German supplier on 90-day credit. The
accounts payable is then valued at today spot rate which is say Rs 52.50. The firm covers the
payable with a 90-day forward purchase of Euros at 'premium of say Rs 0.20 i.e. the 90-day
forward offer rate is Rs 52.70 per Euro. The firm has to pay Rs 52,700,000 to settle the
payable valued at Rs 52,500,000. In recording this transaction, the following entries are made:
A/C Payable
52,500,000
Forward Loss
200,000
Bank Account
52,700,000
Thus the premium paid is recorded as the cost of forward cover. By the same logic, if the Euro
had been at a forward discount, cost of forward cover would have been negative. However,
this is a conceptual y erroneous way of interpreting cost of forward cover.
The point is, the forward hedge must be compared not with today's spot rate but the ex-ante
value of the payable if the firm does not hedge. Since the latter is unknown today, the relevant
comparison is between the forward rate and the expected spot rate on the day the transaction is
to be settled. The expected lost of forward hedge for the above Indian firm is given by
F1/4 (EUR/INR)ask - Se1/4, (EUR/INR)ask
Where the notation Se1/4, denotes "spot rate expected to rule 90-days from today"'.
The former when speculators are on balance forward sel ers and the latter when they are net
forward buyers. The argument here is that speculators will demand a risk premium for
assuming the risk of an uncertain future spot rate.
Even in this case the expected cost of hedging is zero. This is because the hedgers are passing
on the risk to the speculators and the risk premium paid is the price of risk avoidance. The
forward rate is the market certainty equivalent of the uncertain future spot rate. This can be
understood as follows. Suppose me current USD/INR spot rate is 45.00 and the three month
forward is 45.75. If you take an uncovered bog p'1sition in the forward contract, you would
gain-the bank which sells you the forward contract would lose-if the spot three months later
turns out to be greater than 45.75 and you would lose-the bank would gain-if it turns out to be
below 45.75. If the forward rate quoted by the bank is inordinately high, say Rs 60, so that the
probability of your gaining is very small, you would demand an upfront payment for liking a
long position; similarly if it is ridiculously low, say Rs 20, the probability of the short side
gaining is very low and the bank would demand up front compensation. The actual forward
rate is such that risk adjusted gains equal risk adjusted losses so that the forward contract has
zero value-neither the buyer nor the seller demands any payment at the initiation of the
contract.
Hence presence of risk premium does not invalidate the contention that the expected cost of
forward hedging is zero. Transaction costs are a different matter. As we have seen, the bid-ask
spreads are generally wider in the forward segment than in the spot segment so that even if
there is no risk premium
Ft,T (EUR/INR)ask > St,T(EUR/INR)ask
and
Ft,T (EUR/INR)bid < St,T (EUR/INR)bid
Thus the only cost of a forward hedge is the larger spread in the forward market compared to
the spot market. The extent of the difference depends on the relative depth of the two markets.
For transaction between the major convertible currencies, the short-maturity forward markets
are nearly as deep as the spot markets and the difference in spreads tends to be quite small.
The accounting problem mentioned above arises because the invoice amount is converted into
domestic currency at today's spot rate. The correct procedure is to use the forward rate for this
purpose. To elaborate this argument considers the following example:
A firm has exported textiles to a German customer for which it would like to get Rs
10,00,000 cash However keeping in view the competitive factors it has to give 90-day
credit. The domestic interest rate is 8% p.a. The firm should charge Rs 10,20,000
(= 1.02 x 10,00,000) for 90-day credit sale. How should it translate this into a EUR
denominated price? The interest rate in Eurozone is 4% p.a.
The spot EUR/INR exchange rate is 52.50
Obviously it is wrong to calculate the EUR price as (1,020,000/52.50) = EUR 19,428.57. To
see why, suppose the export bill is discounted with a German bank, the proceeds will be EUR
(19,428.57/1.01) = EUR 19,236.21 which converted into rupees will be worth Rs 10,09,901
(=19,236.21x 52.50) whereas the firm's target is to realise Rs 10,00,000. To realise this, the
firm should quote EUR [(10,00,000/52.5) x 1.01) = EUR 19,238.10. Thus the appropriate rate
for translating the price is (10,20,000/19,238.10) = 53.0198
But this is precisely the forward rate arrived at by the interest parity theorem viz.
(52.50)(1.02/1.01) = 53.0198
Of course the example overlooks the fact that in a context like the Indian market the forward
premiums/discounts are not necessarily determined by interest rate differentials and hence the
actual forward rate may be quite different from the interest parity rate. However, the point we
wish w emphasize is that the appropriate rate is the interest parity forward rate and not today's
spot rate. The major convertible currencies departures from interest parity are well within the
bounds imposed by transaction costs.
It must be emphasized that forward hedging of contractual exposures does not stabilize a firms
cash flows. Suppose an Indian exporter who has continuing exports to the USA invoices his
exports in US dol ars and maintains US dol ar prices so as to retain its competitive position in
the US market. Each m~ receivable is sold forward. The firm's rupee cash flows will then
fluctuate as the USD/INR forward the fluctuations; if it does not hedge, the fluctuations in the
cash flow will be proportional to the changes in the spot rate. Empirically, the volatility of the
forward rate is not significantly less than the spot rate. It could also remove its contractual
exposure by invoicing each shipment in rupees on some kind of a cost plus basis. Now, the
dol ar prices will fluctuate and so will the firm's export volume and market share. Thus
hedging a contractual exposure just removes the uncertainty regarding the home currency
value of that particular item; it cannot stabilize the firm's cash flows or profits.
Choice of Invoice Currency
This is also the appropriate place to dispose off the issue of the choice of invoice currency
insofar as it bears on transactions exposure. Choice of invoice currency has important
implications for operating exposure of the exporter/importer but the foreign exchange risk
dimension is relatively unimportant. Consider the Indian exporter of textiles to Germany in the
above example. After the quantity and price of exports have been negotiated, it does not matter
whether the invoice is in rupees or Euros provided both parties have access to efficient forward
markets. If the invoice is in EUR, the exporter faces exposure which can be covered in the
forward market as seen above; if it is in rupees, the importer can buy Rs 10,20,000 in the
forward market at a total cost of EUR 19,238.10 to be incurred three months from today.
Problems arise if a well functioning forward market does not exist or cannot be accessed by
one of the parties. With controls on capital movements for instance, the spot-forward differen-
tial in the case of the rupee is not always very closely related to the interest rate differential.
Suppose the EUR/INR forward rate is 52.75. Now the Indian exporter would like to quote a
price of EUR 19,336.49 (= 10,20,000/52.75) for a 90-day credit sale or would prefer to invoice
in rupees. To the German buyer this would mean an annualized interest cost of 6.06%.4 This
might make the deal unattractive to the importer. A price of EUR 19,238.10 would make the
deal unattractive to the exporter because this would imply a cost of funds
{[19,238.10/19047.62) ? 1.0]*4.0} or 5.92% when in fact it is 8%.
The choice of currency of invoicing is often dictated by marketing considerations and
exchange control factors. An exporter may wish to Invoice in the buyer's currency to gain
competitive advantage. Invoicing in a weak currency-which may be neither the buyer's nor the
seller's currency-may be an indirect way of offering discounts which otherwise may be
difficult to offer. In some countries, due to exchange control, the only way a company can take
a position in a currency is by invoicing a trade transaction in that currency. As mentioned
above, if forward markets in a particular currency are thin or non-existent it is better to avoid
invoicing in that currency since the exposure cannot be effectively hedged. Finally, it should
be kept in mind that any gains from the choice of currency of invoicing made by one party are
always at the expense of the other party. Hence for invoicing intra-company transactions as
between different subsidiaries of a parent company, overall tax considerations and minority
interests of the local shareholders will playa significant role.
Exposures with Uncertain Timing
Sometimes the timing of the exposure may be uncertain though the amount is known with
certainty. Suppose a Hong Kong firm has ordered machinery from a Swiss supplier worth
CHF 5,000,000. Payment is to be made when the shipment arrives and documents are handed
over to the importer. There is some uncertainty regarding the exact time of arrival of the
shipment. It may arrive at any time during the fourth month after a firm order is placed.
Option forwards are generally an expensive device to deal with exposures with uncertain
timing. Using swaps may turn out to be cheaper. Thus suppose, on May 1 a company expects
to settle a foreign currency payment on August 1 but feels that the payment date may get
postponed by as much as three months. instead of buying a 3-6 option forward, it can buy the
foreign currency forward for delivery on August!; suppose by June 15, it knows with certainty
that the payment will have to be settled on September 10; It can do a forward-forward swap
i.e. sell the foreign currency for delivery August 1 and buy for delivery September 10. The first
leg of the swap-the sale-cancels its outstanding forward commitment to buy while the other
leg takes care of the payment due on September 10.
Cancellation of Forward Contracts
Cancellation of forward contracts at the customer's option is also possible. The customer may
cancel the entire amount-e.g. when the underlying export or import deal could not materialize-
or a part as when the actual payment to be made or received is less than the amount booked in
the forward contract. For a forward sale (by the customer to the bank), cancellation on due date
is deemed as purchase by the bank at the contracted forward rate and a simultaneous sale at the
then ruling spot rate. If the currency has appreciated beyond the forward rate, the difference is
recovered from the customer any gain is paid to the customer. For a forward purchase, can-
cellation is deemed as a sale by the bank at the contract rate and a simultaneous purchase at the
spot rate. Any difference in favour of the customer is paid to the customer; any loss is
recovered from the customer. In both cases the bank will charge a flat fee over and above any
gains/ losses.
For cancellation before the due date, an opposite forward contract is deemed to have been
entered into. Thus suppose a firm buys $20,000 three-month forward on September 12 at a
rate of Rs 45.50. The due date is December 12. On November 12, the firm would like to
cancel the entire contract. The bank would deem this as a one-month forward purchase from
the customer and do the cancellation at the one-month forward purchase rate on November 12.
It would make a one month forward sale to the market to cover its original three month
forward purchase from the market (which had offset its three month sale to the firm). A
forward sale (by the customer to the bank) is cancelled at the relevant forward sale rate. Once
again a flat fee is charged apart from any difference paid to or recovered from the customer.
LESSON - 4
OPERATING EXPOSURE
Objectives: In this lesson, we will introduce you operating exposure and exchange rate. After
you workout this lesson, you should be able to:
Know the meaning of operating exposure and exchange rate.
Understand the use of operating exposure and exchange rate.
OPERATING EXPOSURE AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE
Operating exposure arises mainly on account of changes in real exchange rates. Consider an
example to reinforce this point.
An Indian firm exports carpets to the UK. At the beginning of the year, the exchange
rate is Rs 75.00 per pound. Competitive considerations suggest that the exporter
should invoice in sterling and price the carpets at ?200. At this price it is able to sell
100 carpets per month. The firm's costs are all domestic at Rs 9,000 per carpet. Thus
its operating margin is Rs 6,000 per unit. Over the year, UK prices increase by 5% and
Indian prices by 8%. It can raise the UK price to ?210 without affecting sales. Its
operating costs increase to Rs 9,720. To maintain operating margin in real terms i.e.
Rs 6,480 per unit in end-of-the year prices, it must get Rs 16,200 from each unit. If the
exchange rate appreciates to Rs 77.1429, the firm is unaffected. But this means that
real exchange rate must remain unchanged since 77.1429 = 75.00(1.08/1.05).
This example makes it clear that operating exposure depends upon:
Change in nominal exchange rate
Change in the selling price (output price)
Change in the quantity of output sold
Change in operating costs i.e. quantities and prices of inputs.
Changes in real exchange rates are among the consequences of real macro-economic shocks
like for instance changes in oil prices. Consumers, firms, labour and governments react to such
shocks by altering their buying patterns, wage demands, input choices, technologies, taxes,
subsidies. The magnitude and speed of response depends on factors like magnitude of the
shock, whether it is perceived to be permanent or transitory, and possibilities of substitution in
consumption and production, bargaining power of unions, market structures and political
compulsions. Real exchange rate changes alter both the relative prices faced by consumers and
their incomes.
For instance, a real appreciation of the US dollar versus the Indian rupee makes American
imports more expensive relative to their home made substitutes (and Indian exports to US
cheaper than their substitutes made in the US). However, such an appreciation also reduces
real incomes of Indian consumers (and in. creases real incomes of American consumers).
What will be the net impact on the sales of a firm which sells in both the markets? Obviously it
depends upon the price and income elasticity of demand for its products in the two markets
and the relative share of the two markets in its total sales.
Real exchange rate changes may also give a relative cost advantage to some firms over their
competitors. As we will see below, the extent of this advantage is largely determined by the
degree of mismatch in the currency composition of recurring costs of a firm and its
competitors. Such a cost advantages may or may not be translated into competitive price
cutting.
Real exchange rate changes will generally have an impact on the costs of a firm's
suppliers. Their reactions will be determined by the degree of market power they
enjoy and availability of substitutes.
Long lasting changes in real exchange rates produce persistent trade imbalances forcing
governments to take corrective actions such as import restraints, export subsidies, controls on
capital flows and shifts in monetary policies. Some or al of these can affect a firm's cash
flows.
Finally, it must be borne in mind that changes in real exchange rates do not occur in isolation.
Usually they are accompanied by changes in real interest rates. This factor may influence not
only expected future cash flows but also the discount rate used to find the PV of these cash
flows.
Operating exposure can be looked upon as a combination of two effects-the conversion
effect and the competitive effect. The conversion effect refers to the changes in home
currency value of a given foreign currency cash flow while the competitive effect refers to
the impact of exchange rate changes arising out of changes in prices and quantities. The
former is similar to transactions exposure while a meaningful analysis of the latter must
inquire into the factors which determine the price impact and the quantity impact of ex-
change rate changes. The most important consideration here is the structure of the markets
in which the sells its output and buys its inputs.
In the example above, output price increased in proportion to foreign inflation, output quantity
remained unchanged, input costs went up in proportion to domestic inflation and the nominal
exchange rate depreciated in line with relative PPP. In practice, one or more of these happy
circumstances do not obtain giving, 10 operating exposure. It should also be remembered that
the concept of real exchange rate uses some aggregate price index to measure inflation. It is
possible that even if exchange rate movements reflect inflation differentials measured by
aggregate price indices, the prices of a firm's inputs and outputs may not move in line with
inflation rates. Relative price changes in response to exchange rate fluctuations can create
exposure even if real exchange rate remains constant.
The table below provides some data on the nominal and real effective exchange rate of the
rupee with van, base periods.
Year/ Month/Day
Base: 1991-92
Base: 1993-94
Base: 1993-94
(April-March) = 100
(April-March+= 100
(April-March+= 100
Near
Reer
Near
Reer
Near
Reer
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990-91
133.07
121.64
175.04
141.69
259.84
141.99
1991-92
100.00
100.00
131.54
116.48
195.26
117.75
1992-93
89.57
96.42
117.81
112.31
174.89
112.38
1993-94
76.02
85.85
100.00
100.00
148.45
100.40
1993-94
76.02
85.85
100.00
100.00
148.45
100.40
1994-95
73.06
90.23
96.09
105.81
142.85
106.24
1995-96
66.67
87.23
87.69
102.29
130.19
102.71
1996-97
65.67
88.20
86.38
103.43
128.38
106.26
1997-98
65.71
9.25
86.43
105.84
128.38
106.26
1998-99
58.12
83.38
76.45
97.79
113.49
98.18
1999-00
58.42
82.49
74.22
96.74
110.17
97.13
2000-01
56.08
85.92
73.77
100.76
109.51
10 1.18
2001-02
55.64
87.05
73.18
102.09
108.64
102.49
2002-03
52.29
83.46
68.78
97.88
102.11
98.24
2003-04
51.21
84.93
67.36
99.60
100.00
100.00
2004-05 (P)
50.24
86.90
66.09
101.91
98.11
102.32
2002-03 September
52.25
83.72
68.73
98.18
102.03
98.58
October
52.56
84.24
69.14
98.79
102.64
99.18
November
52.15
83.76
68.59
98.23
101.82
98.61
December
52.00
83.10
68.40
97.46
10 1.55
97.86
January
51.24
82.11
67.40
96.30
100.06
96.68
February
51.33
82.61
67.51
96.88
100.21
97.27
March
51.48
83.61
67.72
98.06
100.55
98.47
2003-04 April
51.83
84.88
68.18
99.55
101.20
99.93
May
50.85
83.49
66.88
97.91
99.29
98.31
These data indicate that since 1985 there was been real appreciation of the rupee between
1993-94 and 1994-95 and again a very mild appreciation between 1995-96 and 1996-97.
Otherwise the rupee has by and large depreciated in real terms. Conventional wisdom says that
this should have benefited exporters and producers of import-competing goods and services
and hurt importers.
In practice, unanticipated exchange rate changes are a part of macro-economic risks faced by a
firm. A relevant question is the degree to which exchange rate changes get reflected in the
changes in prices of goods and services. This is known as "pass through". Suppose an Indian
firm imports tennis racquets from US. The US price is $50 and the exchange rate is Rs 44.00.
The importer sel s the racquets at a price of Rs 2,750 and earns a margin of 25%. Now
suppose the exchange rate depreciates to Rs 45. The rupee price would increase to
[(45/44)2,750] or Rs 2,812.50 and the importer's margin would be unchanged at 25%.
However, competitive factors may prevent full pass through subjecting the importer to
operating exposure. Also, even in the absence of competitive pressures, decision and
implementation would generally mean that the full impact of exchange rate changes does not
get absorbed in price changes immediately but only after a lag, the length of which depends on
many factors. The time profile of 'pass through" is also relevant in determining the degree of
operating exposure.
CURRENCY OF INVOICING. QUANTITY INERTIA AND OPERATING EXPOSURE
In our analysis so far we have assumed that prices and quantities respond instantaneously to
changes in exchange rates. In practice, a substantial amount of trade involves contractual
arrangements between the exporter and the importer wherein both the quantities supplied and
prices-in either party's currency-are fixed for sometime. In addition, even in the absence of
contracts, while prices respond to exchange rate changes rather quickly, quantity response to
price changes is likely to be considerably slower. .
Consider the case of an Indian exporter who has entered into a one-year contract to supply a
fixed quantity of leather jackets per month to a French importer, at a fixed rupee price per unit.
This means that on the revenue side, operating exposure has been total y eliminated. On the
cost side however exposure continues. When rupee depreciates in real terms, rupee revenues
remain fixed while rupee costs may rise because of imported inputs, wage increases as well as
general inflation. Such an exporter is adversely affected by a real depreciation of the rupee.6
By the same logic, an importer may temporarily gain from a depreciation of the home
currency. What if the price had been negotiated in French francs instead of the rupee? There is
transactions exposure on the revenue side. A depreciation of the rupee will increase rupee
revenues by the full extent of depreciation while costs may not go up to the same extent. In
terms of the h franc, revenue is now fixed whereas costs are not. Despite rupee depreciation,
costs in terms of h franc can increase e.g. suppose the French inflation is at 5%, Indian
inflation at 15% and the rupee depreciates 12% p.a. If al costs are rupee costs and they keep
pace with home inflation, they will increase in terms of French franc.
Look at the situation from the French importer's point of view. Invoicing in rupees means there
is uncertainty both on cost and revenue side. If rupee appreciates, the importer must pay a
larger amount of French francs. However, unless the French firm faces stiff competition from
domestic producers, it will be to increase its selling price in proportion to the rupee
appreciation without any significant loss of sales. The firm faces transactions exposure on the
cost side (which can be covered) and operating exposure on the revenue side. If it agrees to be
invoiced in French franc and the rupee appreciates, it will be better off but if rupee depreciates,
it will suffer particularly if other competitors also import from India and agreed to be invoiced
in rupees. On balance, it should prefer to be invoiced in rupees. Our analysis of Indian exporter
indicates that if India is prone to very high rates of domestic inflation, the exporter would
prefer to invoice in French francs.
Choice of invoicing currency has other dimensions. If the importer does not have easy access
to forward markets or if bid-ask spreads in forward markets are very large, an exporter
insisting on invoicing in his currency will face a competitive disadvantage if other exporters
(from the same or another country) willing to accommodate the importer by invoicing in the
latter's currency. The regularities in invoicing patterns in international trade found by
Grassman Bilson (1983) provide a theoretical explanation of these patterns and their
implications for the relation between the current account and the exchange rate.
We will conclude this section with a simple numerical example of effects of contracting and
invoicing an exporter's profits.
An Indian jewellery exporter has entered into an agreement with a Dutch buyer to
supply 50 neck laces per month over the next year. The Dutch party has agreed to be
invoiced in rupees at Rs 50,000 per necklace. At the time of initiating the agreement
the EURJINR exchange rate is 50.00. The Indian firm estimates that it will need to
import raw gemstones worth EUR 500 per necklace from Holland and other operating
costs would be Rs 5,000 per unit. Soon after the contract is signed, the rupee
depreciates to Rs 54.00 per Euro.
By invoicing in rupees, the exporter has removed exposure from the revenue side. On the cost
side, there is transactions exposure of EUR 25,000 per month. At the time of contracting the
expected annual profit is Rs {(50,000 x 50 x 12) - [5,000 + (500 x 50)](50 x 12)} = Rs
1,20,00,000
As a result of devaluation the actual profit will be
Rs [3,00,00,000 - 1,92,00,000] = Rs 1,08,00,000
When the first contract ends, the exporter is subject to operating exposure. He renegotiates the
price at Rs 53,250. In Euros this translates to EUR 986. At this price, the Dutch buyer is
willing to take 55 pieces per month.1o In the meanwhile, the euro cost of the raw stones has
gone up by 5% to EUR 525, and other operating costs have gone up by 10% to Rs 5,500 per
unit. The exporter's profits are now expected to be Rs {(53,250 x 55 x 12) - [(525 x 54) +
5,500](55 x 12)} = Rs 1,28,04,000
In inflation adjusted terms, profits have declined to Rs 1,16,40,000 (=1,28,04,000/1.1) despite
a real depreciation of the rupee. You can convince yourself that if the exporter had raised the
price such that in guilder terms it had kept pace with Dutch inflation, the firm's rupee turnover
would have declined, 11 but its operating profit measured in rupees would have increased in
real terms compared to the pre-devaluation situation.
COPING WITH OPERATING EXPOSURE
A variety of external and internal devices are available to a firm to hedge its transactions
exposure. When it comes to operating exposure, none of these instruments are of much use in
reducing it. Forward and futures contracts, options and money market cover can protect a firm
from nominal exchange rate effects on contractual y fixed foreign currency assets, liabilities
and cash flows. As we have seen above, to the extent the firm can correctly identify and
estimate its operating exposure to exchange rates, it can in principle use forward contracts to
hedge. The difficulty as we have seen above is in identifying and estimating the exposure
coefficients. Also, operating exposure covers a much longer horizon that contractual
transactions exposures; long-maturity forward contracts are not easily available even in major
currencies.
Given these difficulties in using financial hedges, operating exposure must be managed by
altering the firm's operations-pricing, choice of markets, sourcing, location of production, etc.
This requires considerable flexibility in these areas. Not al businesses may permit such
flexibility in the sense that costs associated with shifting location of production facilities,
changing sourcing, etc. may be quite high. We briefly discuss below how each of the above
functional groups might contribute to reduction of operating exposure.
As we have seen above, operating exposure depends upon price elasticity of demand.
In the area of marketing, improved knowledge of customers' price sensitivity,
competitive response, and effect of non-price variables on sales, etc. is of great
importance. The firm can reduce the adverse effects of exchange rate changes on its
revenue by moving into product lines which are fewer prices sensitive and by
countering the effect of increased prices by means of other competitive weapons such
as local advertising and promotion. Note that shifting product-market combinations is
a long-term strategic decision.
If inputs are purchased in markets where the local content in their costs is high,
exchange rate changes will significantly alter the relative costs of sourcing from
alternative sources. When the input markets are global in scope e.g. crude petroleum
and petroleum products, sourcing decisions are relatively less important. In some
cases, use of commodity options and futures may enable the firm to hedge commodity
price risk.
Shifting the location of production to countries whose currencies have depreciated in
real terms can reduce the adverse impact of exchange rate changes provided
production costs in different locations have a large local content (e.g. labour) and
economies of scale are relatively less important.
Frequent shifts in product-market combination, sourcing and location of production
facilities imply changing currency composition of costs and revenues. This will call for a more
quick-footed response from the treasury in terms of short-term management of funds and
borrowings.
A number of authors have suggested that currency matching of inputs and outputs will enable
the firm to reduce its operating exposure i.e. reduce the variance of its profits. For instance,
Pringle and Connolly (1993) argue that "Economic exposure results most directly in cases of
direct exposure in which there is an imbalance in revenue and cost streams with respect to
currency-that is when the revenue and cost 'currency footprints' do not match. There are
basically two possible ways to hedge economic exposure: operational hedges and financial
hedges. An example of an operational hedge is a change in sourcing to better match revenue
and cost currency footprints".
LESSON - 5
INTEREST RATE EXPOSURE
Objectives: In this lesson, we will introduce you interest rate exposure. After you workout this
lesson, you should be able to:
Know the meaning of interest rate exposure.
Understand the application of interest rate exposure.
MANAGEMENT OF INTEREST RATE EXPOSURE
The important thing to note is that there is no exchange of principal amount. If the settlement
rate on the settlement date5 is above the contract rate, the seller compensates the buyer for the
difference in interest on the agreed upon principal amount for the duration of the period in the
contract. Conversely, if the settlement rate is below the contract rate, the buyer compensates
the seller.
The compensation is paid up-front on the settlement day and therefore has to be suitably
discounted since interest payment on short-term loans is at maturity of the loan. One of the
following two formulas is used for calculating settlement payment from the seller to the buyer:
P = (L - R) x DF x A / [(B x 100) + (DF x L)]
P = (R - L) x DF x A / [(B x 100) + (DF x L)]
This means that the FRA is only a hedge; the actual underlying deposit or loan is a separate
transaction which may not be-and most often is not-with the same bank that traded the FRA.
The settlement rate is the rate with which the contract rate is to be compared to compute the
settlement payment. In each market there is a clearly specified procedure to determine the
settlement rate. The fixing date is the day on which the settlement rate is determined. For US
dol ar FRAs, fixing date is the settlement date itself i.e. t=S. while for other currencies it is two
business days before the settlement date. In the Indian rupee market it is one day before the
settlement date. See calculation of settlement payment discussed below.
Here the notation is
L: The settlement rate (%)
R: The contract rate (%)
DF: The number of days in the contract period
A: The notional principal
B: Day count basis (360 or 365)
The first formula is used when L > R and the payment P is from the FRA seller to the FRA
buyer; the second formula is used when L < R and the payment is from the buyer to the seller.
In effect, if the settlement rate is higher, the FRA seller compensates the buyer for the extra
interest; if the settlement rate is lower, the buyer surrenders the interest saving to the seller.6 Let
us illustrate this with an example.
Consider the 6-9 FRA quotation given above:
USD 6/9 months: 7.20-7.30% p.a.
Suppose a company which intends to take a 3-month loan starting 6 months from now wishes
to lock in its borrowing rate. It buys the FRA from the bank which is giving the above FRA
quotes, at the banks ask rate of 7.30% for an underlying notional principal of USD 5 million.
Suppose on the settlement date, the reference rate e.g. 3-month USD LIBOR is 8.5%. The
number of days in the contract period is 91 and the basis is 360 days. The bank will have to
pay the company
(L - R) x DF x A
[(B x 100) + (DF x L)]
= USD [(8.50 - 7.30)(91)(5,000,000)]/[(36000) + (91 x 8.50)]
= USD 14,847.65
The numerator is the extra interest the company will have to pay because the actual
borrowing rate is higher than the contract rate. This will be paid at the expiry of the loan.
The FRA seller pays the company the PV of this discounted at the actual rate viz. 8.5% for
91 days.
In the global financial markets, FRAs are traded in all convertible currencies. The minimum
principal amount is around 5 million units of a currency. Like the forward exchange contract,
FRAs are an over the counter product and therefore not standardized.
In a forward foreign currency contract, the parties fix the rate of exchange between
two currencies for future delivery. In a FRA, the rate of interest on a future borrowing
or lending is locked in. Just as the forward exchange rate reflects the market's
expectations regarding the future spot rate, the rate fixed in an FRA reflects the
market's expectations of future interest rates.
The expectations theory of the term structure says that forward interest rates implicit in a given
term structure equal the expected future spot interest rates. Thus, the 3 month rate expected to
rule 6 months from today is implied by the 6 and 9 months actual rates today: where, as usual,
the superscript "e" denotes expected. In general, given the spot interest rates for a short and a
long maturity, the rate expected to rule for the period between the end of short maturity and the
end of long maturity is given by DS, DL and DF are as explained above. B is the day count
basis (360 or 365 days). Interest rates io,s iO,L stated as fractions, (not per cent) are the spot
interest rates at time t = 0 for maturities Sand L respectively. When L> R the FRA buyer
incurs extra interest cost equal to [(L - R)/100](A)(DF/B). This is discounted by a discount
factor equal to [1 + (L/100)(DF/B)], This gives the formula above.
Note that the rate so calculated will only serve as a benchmark for a FRA quotation. The actual
quote will be influenced by demand-supply conditions in he market and the market's
expectations.
We will now illustrate applications of FRAs for borrowers and investors the former to lock in
the cost of short term borrowing and the latter to lock in the return on short-term investment.
FRA for a Borrower
A firm plans to borrow ?5 million for 3 months, 6 months from now. The current 3 month
Euro-sterling rates are 10.50-10.75%. The firm has to pay a spread of 25 b.p. (0.25%) over
LIB OR. The treasurer is apprehensive about the possibility of rates rising over the coming six
months. He wishes to lock in the cost of loan. Sterling 6/9 FRA is being offered at 10.8750%.
The treasurer decides to buy it. We will work out the firm's cost of borrowing under alternative
scenarios of 3month rates 6 months from today. The anticipated borrowing is for 91 days.
Scenario 1: Six months later, sterling settlement LIBOR is 11.50. The bank, which sold the
FRA compensates the firm by immediately paying an amount A calculated as
A = (0.1150 - 0.10875) x 5,000,000 x (91/365) / [1 + 0.1150(91/365)]
= ?7,573.94
Notice that the upfront payment by the FRA seller equals the difference in interest on ?5
million, for 91 days at the actual LIBOR and the contracted rate, discounted at the actual
LIBOR. The discounting is necessary because the firm will be paying interest on its loan at
maturity (i.e. at the end of 91 days from the settlement date) while the bank pays the difference
on the settlement date. The firm borrows ?5 million at 11.75% including a spread of 25 b.p.
The compensation received can be invested at 11.25% (This is the LIBID). The cost of the
loan is Interest on 5 million at 11.75% for 91 days
= (0.1175) x 5,000,000 x (91/365)
= 146,472.60
From this we must subtract the compounded value of the compensation received from the
FRA selling bank. This is given by
(7573.94) x [1 + 0.1125(91/365)]
= 7,786.37
So the net cost is ?1, 38,686.23 which works out to an annual rate of 11.1254%. This is the
rate locked in by the firm (10.8750 + 0.25 = 11.1250).
Scenario 2: 6 months later the settlement rate LIBOR is 10.25%
The firm pays the bank an amount A given by
A = (0.10875 - 0.1025) x 5,000,000 x (91/365) = 7,596.95
[1+0.1025(91/365)]
The firm has to borrow this at 10.50% in addition to the loan of ?5 million. Its total cost now
consists of interest on 5 million plus the repayment of the loan taken to pay the compensation.
This works out to ?1 38,686.23 which is again an annual cost of 11.1254%.
FRA for an Investor
A fund manager is expecting to have $5 million 3 months from now to invest in a 3 month (92
days) Eurodol ar deposit. The current 3 month rates are 8.25-8.375%. The $3/6 FRA bid rate
is 8.1250. The manager sells a FRA for $5 million.
1. 3 months later, the settlement rate is 7.50% The bank pays the manager an amount A
given by
A = (0.08125 - 0.0750)(5,000,000)(92/360) = $7 835 92
[1 + 0.075(92/360)]
The manager invests this along with $5 million at 7.50%. His total return is $103,819.44
which is 8.125% annual return contracted in the FRA.
You can check out that if the settlement rate had instead been above the contract rate, the
investor would have had to pay the bank and his net return would again be 8.125%.
FRAs, like forward foreign exchange contracts are a conservative way of hedging exposure. It
removes ~l uncertainty from cost of borrowing or rate of return on investment. The
relationship between a FRA and an interest rate futures contract is exactly~ analogous to that
between a forward foreign currency contract and a currency futures contract. Like in a
currency forward, FRAs imply credit risk for both parties though inaFRA the risk is limited
only to the amount of settlement payment since there is no actual borrowing or lending
transaction involved. Also, being an OTC product, FRAs are not liquid and compared to
futures, the bid-offer spreads tend to be wider.
There is another product similar to a FRA for locking in borrowing cost or the return on
investment. This is known as a "forward-forward" contract. Here too, the two parties agree to
fix an interest rate for a, lending or a borrowing transaction covering a specific period, starting
at a specified future time; however, unlike a FRA, here the lending or borrowing is not
notional. There is actual y a loan or deposit transaction at the contract rate.
Banks who make a market in FRAs find interest rate futures such as Eurodol ar futures a
convenient hedging device for hedging their FRA commitments. Technically, a bank which
sells say a 3/6 FRA or forward-forward, can borrow funds for 6 months, invest them for the
first three months and then "lend" them to the FRA buyer. Alternatively, it can hedge itself
against rising interest rates by selling eurodollar or similar futures. FRAs (like futures) can also
be used as a form of highly leveraged speculation on interest rate movements. Such
speculative use of FRAs is largely confined to market making banks.
FRAs were introduced in the Indian money market in 1999. The Reserve Bank of India
circulated the guidelines applicable to FRAs in a circular dated July 7, 1999. The benchmark
rate may be any domestic money market rate such as T-bill yield or relevant MIBOR
(Mumbai Interbank Offered Rate) though the interbank term money market has not yet
developed sufficient liquidity. FRA is viewed as an exchange of interest payments on a
notional principal wherein the FRA buyer agrees to pay interest at a fixed rate (the contract
rate) while the seller pays interest at the settlement rate. Settlement is done by payment of the
net difference by one party to the other. Here is an example:
Bank A and Bank B enter into a 6 x 9 FRA. Bank A pays fixed rate at 6.50%. Bank B pays a
rate based on 91 day T -bill yield fixed the day before the settlement date.
Other details:
- Notional principal = Rs. 10 crore
- FRA start and settlement date 10/12/04, Maturity date 10/3/05
- T bill yield on fixing date (say 9/12/04) = 5.50%
- Determine cash flow at settlement (assume discount rate as 7%)
The calculations are as follows:
(a) Interest payable by bank A = (10 crore) (0.065) (91/365) = Rs 16,20,547.9
(b) Interest payable by bank B = (10 crore) (0.055) (91/365) = Rs 1,371,232.8
(c) Net payable by bank A on maturity date {(a) - (b)} = Rs 24,9315.1
(d) Discounting (c) to settlement date
= (c)/(1+ discount rate*discount period) .
= Rs 2,49,315.1/[1 + 0.07(91/365)] = Rs 2,45,038.67
Amount payable on settlement date = Rs 2,45,038.67 payable by Bank A.
RBI guidelines state that corporate are permitted to do FRAs only to hedge underlying
exposures while market maker banks can take on uncovered positions within limits specified
by their boards and vetted by RBI. Capital adequacy norms are applicable and the minimum
required capital ratio would depend upon the underlying notional principal, the tenor of the
agreement and the type of counterparty.
INTEREST RATE OPTIONS
A less conservative hedging device for interest rate exposure is interest rate options. A call
option on interest rate gives the holder the right to borrow funds for a specified duration at a
specified interest rate without an obligation to do so. A put option on interest rate gives the
holder the right to invest funds for a specified duration at a specified return without an
obligation to do so. In both cases, the buyer of the option must pay the seller an upfront
premium stated as a fraction of the face value of the contract or the underlying notional
principal.
An interest rate cap consists of a series of call options on interest rate or a portfolio of calls. A
cap protects the borrower from increase in interest rates at each reset date in a medium-to-
Iong-term floating rate liability. Similarly, an interest rate floor is a series or portfolio of put
options on interest rate which protects a lender against fal in interest rate on rate rest dates of a
floating rate asset. An interest rate col ar is a combination of a cap and a floor.
In the following subsection we will analyze simple interest rate options.
A Call Option on Interest Rate
Consider first a European call option on 6-month LIBOR. The contract specifications are as
follows:
Time to expiry: 3 months (say 92 days)
Underlying Interest Rate: 6-month LIBOR
Strike Rate: 9%
Face Value: $5 million
Premium or Option Value: 50 b.p. (0.5% of face value) = $25,000
The current three and six month LIBORS are 8.60 and 8.75% respectively. Let us work out
the pay-off to a long position in this option. Assume that the option has been purchased by a
firm, which needs to borrow $5 million for six months in three months time.
The pay-off to the holder depends upon the value of the 6 month LIBOR 3 months later:
The option is not exercised. The firm borrows in the market. The pay-off is a loss of
compounded value of the premium paid three months ago. The present value of the loss (at the
time of option expiry) is the premium compounded for three months at the 3-month rate,
which prevailed at option initiation. In the above example it is
$25,000[1 + 0.0860(92/360)] = $25,549.44
If the loss is to be reckoned at the maturity of the loan, this amount must be further
compounded for 6 months at the 6-month LIBOR at the time the option expires.
The option is exercised. The option writer has to pay the option buyer an amount, which
equals the difference in interest on $5 million for 6 months at today's 6 month LIBOR and the
strike rate 9%:
(i - 0.09) x 5,000,000 x (182/360)
where i is the 6-month LIBOR at option expiry.
Thus suppose 6-month LIBOR at option expiry is 10%, the option writer has to pay
(0.10 - 0.09)(5,000,000)(182/360) = $25,277.78
This amount would be paid not at the time of exercise of the option but at the maturity of the
loan 6 months later. Alternatively, its discounted value using the 6-month LIBOR at option
exercise can be paid at the time of exercise.
The break-even rate is defined as that value of LIBOR at option expiry at which the borrower
would be indifferent between having and not having the call option i.e. the total cash outflow
at loan maturity would be identical with and without the option. Obviously, because of the
upfront premium, the break-even rate must be higher than the strike rate in the option. It is the
value of i, which satisfies the following equality:
A[l + i(M/360)] = A[l + R(M/360)] + C[1 + it,T (T/360)][ 1+ i(M/360)]
where A is the underlying principal, R is the strike rate, it, T is the T-day LIBOR at time t
when the option is bought, C is the premium paid at time t, and, T and M are number of days
to option expiry and maturity of the underlying interest rate. For the example at hand, A =
5,000,000, R = 0.09, it, T= 0.086, C = 25,000, T = 92 and M = 182. The breakeven rate works
out to 10.06%.9 lf the 6-month LIBOR at option expiry is above (below) the break-even rate,
the call buyer makes a net gain (loss).
A Put Option on Interest Rate
Consider an investor who expects to have surplus cash 3 months from now to be invested in a
3-month Euro-deposit. The amount involved is $10 million. The current 3-month rate is
10.50%, which the investor considers to be satisfactory. A put option on LIB OR is available
with the following features:
Maturity
: 3 months (91 days)
Strike Rate
: 10.50%
Face Value
: $10 million
Underlying
: 3-month LIBOR.
Premium
: 25 b.p. (0.25% of face value) = $25,000
To hedge the risk, the investor goes long in the put. Three months later, if the 3-month LIBOR
is less than 10.50% he will exercise the option or else let it lapse. Suppose the 3-month LIBOR
at option expiry is 9.5%. The option writer must pay the option buyer a sum equal to
(0.105 - 0.095)(10,000,000)(91/360) = $25,277.78
This is paid 3 months after option exercise or its discounted value at
option exercise.
The break-even rate is the value of i satisfying the following equality:
A[l + i(M/360)] = A[l + R(M/360)] - P[l + it,T (T/360)][1 + i(M/360)]
Where P is the put premium and other notation is same as in the case of a call option. In the
example, A = 10 million, R = 0.105, T = 91, M = 91, it,T= 0.105 and P = 25,000. The break-
even rate works out to 9.46%. If the 3-month LIBOR 3 months later are less than this, the put
buyer makes a net gain.
Interest rate options are thus similar to currency options in their pay-off profiles and hedging
applications. Valuation of these options also has many similarities with valuation of currency
options.
A Put-call Parity Relation
It is easy to see that a long position in a call option with strike rate R and a short position in a
put with the same strike and same maturity, both on the same underlying index (such as 6-
month LIBOR), are equivalent to a long position in an FRA at RY to prove this we proceed as
follows. Consider the following three securities at time t:
1. A call option on M-day LIBOR, at strike rate R, maturing T-days from today, face value A,
premium C.
2. A put option on M-day LIB OR, at strike rate R, maturing T-days from today, face
value A, premium P.
3. An FRA, on M-day LIB OR, maturing T-days from today, face value A, contract rate R.
Thus irrespective of the outcome you gain. The discounted value of the gain at time t (today) is
(P - C) as it should be since the FRA is costless.
Now suppose C > P. You can verify that by selling a call, buying a put and buying an
FRA profit can be made irrespective of what the interest rate is at option expiry.
Thus, if the strike rates in the put and the call both equal the current rate in a corresponding
FRA, the call and put must have identical premia. To put it in another manner, a long position
in a call and a short position in a put both with same maturity, the same strike rate and the
same underlying interest rate is equivalent to buying an FRA 'on the same interest rate at a
contract rate equal to the strike rate in the put and call.
INTEREST RATE CAPS, FLOORS AND COLLARS
Interest rate caps and floors are portfolios respectively, simple calls and puts on interest rate.
We will begin by looking at examples of applications of caps and floors.
Interest Rate Caps
A corporation borrowing medium-term floating rate funds wishes to protect itself
against the risk of rising interest rates. It can do so by buying an interest rate cap for
the duration of the loan. The following example illustrates the working of this
instrument.
,
A corporation has borrowed $50 million on floating rate basis for 3 years. The interest rate
reset dates are March 1 and September 1. The spread over LIBOR is 25 b.p. (0.25%). It is a
bullet loan I (i.e. repayment of the entire principal is at maturity).
It buys a 3 year cap on 6-month LIBOR with the following features: lf i > R, your gain from
exercising the call exactly offsets what you have to pay the buyer of the FRA leaving you with
the difference between the compounded values of the put premium you received and the call
premium you paid. The put you sold will lapse.
If i < R, the put will be exercised against you but the loss will be offset by your gain from the
FRA. Your call will lapse again leaving you with the same net gain. In the equation that
immediately follows, the first term is the compounded value of the call option premium you
paid. The second term is the gain from exercising the call, the third term is the payment you
have to make to the FRA buyer and the last term is the compounded value of the put option
premium you received.
Term
: 3 years
Underlying
: 6-month LIBOR
Reset Dates
: March 1, September 1
Strike Rate
: 9%
Face Value
: $50 million
Up-Front Fee : 2% of face value or $1 million
The cap is traded on February 27, 2000, the settlement date is March 1,2000. The current level
of 6-month LIBOR is 9%.
Since the rate applicable to the first 6-month period is known, there are five interest rate call
options in this cap maturing at six monthly intervals starting six months from March 1. Each
option has a strike rate of 9% and face value of $50 million.
To determine the effective cost of borrowing with the cap we must assume an interest rate sce-
nario. Measuring time in half-years suppose the 6-month LIBOR at subsequent reset dates
moves as follows:
Reset Date
LIBOR (%)
1/9/00
10.0
1/3/01
9.5
1/9/01
9.5
1/3/02
9.0
1/9/02
8.5
The premium cost is amortized over a 21/2 year period using a discount rate of 9%. This gives
annuity of $227,790.43 for 5 periods starting 6 months from September 1,2000. Table 15.1
sets out the cash flows associated with the capped loan. For simplicity of calculations we have
assumed that each half-year period consists of 1821/2 days. The first column of the table shows
semi-annual periods 0-6. The second column shows cash flows from the loan. For instance at
t=1, interest to be paid is 50,000,000[0.0925(182.5/360)]= 2,344,618.1
A Floating Rate Loan with an Interest Rate Cap
Time t
Cash Flow from Loan Amortisation of Cash
Flow Total
Premium
from Cap
0
+50,000,000
-
-
+50,000,000
1
-2,344,618.1
-227,790.43
-
-2,572,408.5
2
-2,598,090.3
-227,790.43
+253,472.2
-2,572,408.5
3
-2,471,354.2
-227,790.43
+126,736.1
-2,572,408.5
4
-2,471,354.2
-227,790.43
+126,736.1
-2,572,408.5
5
-2,344,618.1
-227,790.43
-
-2,572,408.5
6
-52,154,514
-
-
-52,154,514
While at t = 3 the interest outflow is
50,000,000[0.0975(182.5/360)]=2,471,354.2
The third column is amortization of the upfront premium. The next column shows payments
received from the cap seller. Thus at t=2, the borrower gets
50,000,000(0.10 - 0.09)(182.5/360)=253,472.2
This is because LIBOR applicable for the second six-monthly period was 10%, one percent
higher than the strike rate of 9%. The last column shows the net cash flows from the capped
loan. The effective cost of borrowing is found by finding the IRR of this stream. It works out
to a semi-annual rate of 5.02% corresponding to an annual rate of 10.29%.
Interest Rate Floors
A fund manager is planning to invest $50 million in 5-year FRNs. The notes pay 6-month LIB
OR + 0.50%, the rate being reset every 6 months. The current 6-month LIBOR is 8.60%. As
protection against falling rates the manager decides to buy an interest rate floor with the
following features:
Term
: 5 years
Underlying Interest Rate : 6-month LIBOR
Reset Dates
: June 1, December 1
Strike Rate
: 8%
Face Value
: $25 million
Up-front Fee
: 1.5% of the face value or $375,000
This is a portfolio of nine simple put options on 6-month LIBOR with maturities 6, 12, 18. .54
months. As in the case of the cap above, the upfront premium is amortized in 9 equal 6
monthly installments discounted at today's 6 month LIB OR viz. 8.5%. The corresponding
annuity is $51,126.84. Now, the effective return on investment depends upon the value of LIB
OR at al future reset dates. The cash flows in the following table are based on the following
scenario:
t
LIBOR(%)
0
8.50
I
8.75
2
8.75
3
8.00
4
7.50
5
7.50
6
7.50
7
7.75
8
8.00
9
8.00
An Investment with an Interest Rate Floor
Time t
Cash flow from Amortisation
Cash
flow Total
investment
of Premium
from Floor
0
-25,000,000
-
-
-25,000,000
1
1,140,625.0
-51,126.8
-
1,089,498.20
2
1,172,309.0
-51,126.8
-
1,121,182.20
3
1,172,309.0
-51,126.8
-
1,121,182.20
4
1,077,256.9
-51,126.8
-
1,026,130.10
5
1,013,888.9
-51,126.8
63,368
1,026,130.10
6
1,013,888.9
-51,126.8
63,368
1,026,130.10
7
1,013,888.9
-51,126.8
63,368
1,026,130.10
8
1,045,572.9
-51,126.8
31,684
1,026,130.10
9
1,077,256.9
-51,126.8
-
1,026,130.10
10
26,077,257.0
-
-
26,077,257.00
The calculations are quite similar to the case of a cap except the buyer of the floor receives
payment 1 from the seller when LIBOR falls below the strike rate. The effective return on
investment is the IRR of the cash flows shown in the last column. It works out to 4.24% semi-
annual which is equivalent to 8.66% annual.
An interest rate col ar is a combination of a cap and a floor. A corporation wishing to limit its
borrowing cost on a floating rate liability might find the premium associated with a cap too
expensive. It can reduce this by sacrificing some of the potential gain from low interest rates. It
buys a cap and simultaneously sells a floor. The premium received from the sale of the floor
would partly or wholly compensate for the premium paid for the cap. In the latter case, we
have a zero cost col ar. Thus suppose the current 6-month LIBOR is 7.50% and the company
has a floating rate liability with rate reset every six months indexed to 6-month LIBOR. It
might buy a cap with a strike rate of 9% and sell a floor with a strike rate of 7%. Suppose the
premia cancel out. Effectively, its borrowing cost will vary between 7 and 9% (plus of course
any spread over LIBOR it must pay). By sacrificing the potential gain if LIB OR falls below
7% (in which case buyer of the floor sold by the company would exercise its option), it has
eliminated the upfront premium payment.
VALUATION OF INTEREST RATE OPTIONS
The approach to valuation of interest rate options is quite similar to that for currency options.
The risk neutral binomial model can be applied to simple interest rate options. Since caps and
floors are portfolios of simple options, they can be valued by simply valuing each of the
embedded options separately and adding together the values. While conceptually simple, this
approach is not theoretically very satisfactory particularly for options with long lives.
Another approach to valuation uses modifications of the Black-Scholes model. The main
modifications required are to view options on interest rate as options on an interest bearing
instrument and take account of stochastic interest rates. We will not pursue it here. The
interested reader can consult the references cited in the bibliography. A theoretically rigorous
approach to valuing interest rate options has to be based on a model of the complete term
structure of interest rates.
OPTIONS ON INTEREST RATE FUTURES
The options on interest rate futures contracts are traded on a number of financial exchanges
including LIFFE. The underlying asset is a futures contract such as T-bill or Eurodol ar
futures. The holder of a call has the right to establish a long position in a futures contract while
a put holder has the right to establish a short position. Short-term interest rate futures prices are
quoted as "points of hundred" i.e. (100-the relevant interest rate in per cent). Consequently,
holder of a call option on say a Eurodol ar futures benefits from a fall in interest rate while the
put holder benefits from a rise in interest rate. Thus pay-offs from a long call (put) on futures
are similar to a long put (cal ) on the underlying interest rate itself. The options traded on
exchanges are American options. However, in the examples below we will assume away the
possibility of early exercise.
Borrower's hedge: Hedging against a rise in interest rate.
Today is March 1. A corporation is planning to issue 92-day commercial paper with face value
$20 million on June 1. To protect itself against a rise in interest rate, it decides to buy a put
option on 20 Eurodol ar futures contracts. The option has the following features:
Type: American put option
Underlying: June Eurodol ar contracts
Expiry date: June 1 (91 days from today)
Strike price: 91
Face value: $1 million per contract, $20 million total
Premium: 0.75 b.p.
The current price of June futures is 92. The current 3 month dollar LIBOR is 8.5%. 3-month
CP rate is 9%.
The dollar value of the premium is calculated as follows:
0.75 x (1/100) x (90/360) x $1,000,000 = $1875
For 20 contracts, the premium is $37,500.
On June 1, the payoff from each option is
June futures price F
Pay-off
> 91
Option lapses, no pay-off
< 91 [(91 -F)(1/100)(90/360)1,000,000]
Thus suppose the features price has fallen to 90. The total gain from exercising the option and
immediately liquidating the position would be
(0.01)(90/360)(1,000,000)(20) = $50,000
On June 1, 3 month LIB OR has risen to 9.9% while the 3 month CP rate is lOi4%. Without
the option, the CP issue would have realised
$(20,000,000)/(1+ 0.104(92/360)] = $19,482,206
With the gain from the option it would realise $19,532,206. Of course we must deduct the
compounded cost of the premium which is
37,500[1 + 0.085(91/360)] = 38,305.73
The net realization is therefore $19,493,900. If the issue had been made on March 1, the firm
would have realized $(20,000,000)/[1 + 0.09(92/360)] = $19,550,342
The break-even futures price on June 1 is that value of F for which the gain from the option
equals the compounded value of the premium. It works out to 90.23.
Pay-off from a Put on Eurodollar Futures
As usual, the firm could have chosen a deeper out-of-the-money option with a smaller
premium but lower level of protection. Alternatively, the firm could have written a call option
on futures and collected an upfront premium. If interest rates had gone up as before, the call
would have lapsed unexercised and the premium gained would have reduced the firm's
effective borrowing cost. If the rates had fallen, the call would be exercised limiting the gain
from lower rates. In one of the problems at the end of this chapter you are asked to compare
this strategy with purchase of a put on futures.
We will conclude with an example in which we compare a number of alternative strategies for
an investor to cope with interest rate risk.
Today is March 1. An investor foresees a cash surp1us of $50 million in 3 months
time to be invested in 3-month Eurodol ar CDs. The current 3-month LIBOR is 8%. The following alternatives are being considered:
1. Do not hedge.
2. Sell a 3/6 FRA at 8%.
3. Buy a 3-month put option on 3-month LIBOR.
4. Write a put on June Eurodol ar futures.
5. Write a 3-month call on 3-month LIBOR.
6. Buy a 3-month call on June Eurodol ar futures.
.
We have already seen how (2) and (3) work. Consider (4). Writing a put on Eurodol ar
futures yields an upfront premium. If rates fall, futures prices will rise and the put will not be
exercised. The premium income will lead to a higher return than remaining unheeded or an
FRA. If rates rise, beyond a point, the put will be exercised against the investor and gain will
be limited. Similarly, strategy (5), writing a call on LIBOR yields an upfront income but
limits gains from rising rates. The call will be exercised when rates rise. As to (6), if the rates
fall, there will be a gain which will partly compensate for the loss on investment while if the
rates rise, investor can gain as in buying a put on LIBOR.
For simplicity, we will ignore the compounding of option premia paid/received over the
maturity period of the underlying rate i.e. from 6 to 9 months from the start date. Also ignore
the problem of basis in futures. The strike rates in the interest rate options are all 8% and the
strike prices in the futures options are 92.
SOME RECENT INNOVATIONS
As in the case of currency options, a number of exotic products have appeared in
recent years that permit more flexible management of interest rate risk. An interest
rate cap can be designed that provides protection contingent upon the price of some
commodity or asset e.g. an oil producer may want protection against high interest
rates only when oil prices are low. Average rate or Asian interest rate options have
pay-offs based on the average value of the underlying index (e.g. 6-month LIBOR)
during a specified period m look-back options give pay-offs determined by the most
favourable value. In a cumulative option the buyer can obtain protection such that
cumulative interest expense over a period does not exceed a specific level
A description of some of these products can be found in Euro-money.
~
Interest rate options have not yet been permitted in the Indian market. However, the recent
trend tow liberalization and widening of the financial derivatives market it is expected that
these products will 51 make their appearance in the Indian market.
SELF?ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS (SAQs)
What are the determinants of exchange rates?
Write short notes on Law of one Price and Purchasing Power
Parity.
Explain the International Fisher Effect.
Describe the nature of Exposure and Risk.
Write down the objectives of Hedging Policy.
What are the roles of MIS for Exposure Management?
Explain Operating Exposure with suitable example.
Define Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs).
How you evaluate the Interest Rate Options?
Write down the recent innovations on interest rate exposure.
REFERENCES:
CREDITOR PANICS: CAUSES AND REMEDIES By Jeffrey D. Sachs
Harvard Institute for International Development.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT By Mauric S, Dlevi.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT By Apte P. G.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT By Henning, C. N., W.
Piggot and W. H. Scott.
EXCHANGE RATE ARITHMATIC By C. Jeevanandham.
================= o ===================G===
Lesson 1:
International Capital Budgeting
Objectives:
After studying this lesson you should be able:
To know the basics of capital budgeting in international context
To understand the complexities in long term investments in international projects
To observe the similarities and differences between capital budgeting for a foreign project
and domestic project
To understand the issues in foreign investment analysis
Structure
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Basics of Capital Budgeting
1.3 Foreign Complexities
1.4 Issues in foreign investment analysis
1.5 Summary
1.6 Glossary
1.7 Self Assessment Questions
1.8 Further Readings
1.1 Introduction:
Global corporations evaluating foreign investments find their analysis complicated by a
variety of problems that are rarely, if ever, faced by domestic firms. Recent times have seen a
massive surge in cross-border direct investments. In the following sections we examine several
such problems, including differences between project and parent company cash flows, foreign
tax regulations, expropriation, blocked funds, exchange rate changes and inflation, project-
specific financing, and differences between the basic business risks of foreign and domestic
projects. Due to the fact that purchasing power parity does not hold, national capital markets
will continue to be segmented and exchange risk will have to be explicitly incorporated in
international investment appraisal. Thus the most important factor in appraisal of foreign
projects is exchange risk and how to incorporate it in the cost of capital. The lesson will also
provide a brief overview of project appraisal practices as reported in the literature for
international projects.
Capital budgeting decisions are very crucial for the success of any organization. They are long
term and irreversible in nature. Firms have to invest present cash in anticipation of future
returns. As future is always uncertain these decisions are complex in nature. These decisions in
international context assume further significance, as the very nature of foreign investment is
complex. Development of framework for international capital budgeting involves measuring,
and reducing to a common denominator, the consequences of these complex factors on the
desirability of the foreign investment opportunities under review. The purpose of good
framework is to maximize the use of available information while reducing arbitrary cash flow
and cost of capital adjustments. International capital budgeting techniques are used in
traditional foreign direct investment (FDI) analysis, such as for the construction of a
manufacturing plant in another country, as well as the growing field of international mergers
and acquisitions
1.2 Basics of Capital Budgeting:
International capital budgeting for a foreign project uses the same theoretical framework as
domestic capital budgeting ? with a very few important differences. Multinational capital
budgeting, like traditional domestic capital budgeting, focuses on the cash inflows and
outflows associated with prospective long-term investment projects. The basic steps are as
follows:
a) Identify the initial capital invested or put at risk.
b) Estimate the cash flows to be derived from the project over time, including an estimate of
the terminal or salvage value of the investment.
c) Identify the appropriate discount rate for determining the present value of the expected
cash flows.
d) Apply traditional capital budgeting decision criteria such as net present value (NPV) and
internal rate of return (IRR) to determine the acceptability of or priority ranking of
potential projects.
Once a firm has prepared a list of prospective investments, it must then select from among them that combination of projects that maximizes the
company`s value to its shareholders. This selection requires a set of rules and decision criteria that enables managers to determine, given an
investment opportunity, whether to accept or reject it. Net present value (NPV) method considered being the most accepted method one to use since
its consistent with shareholders wealth maximization. We wil briefly review the standard NPV procedure used to appraise a project in the next
section.
1.2.1. Net Present Value:
The net present value (NPV) is defined as the present value of future cash flows discounted at an appropriate rate minus the initial net cash outlay for
the project. Projects with a positive NPV should be accepted; negative NPV projects should be rejected. If two projects are mutually exclusive, the
one with the higher NPV should be accepted. The discount rate, known as the cost of capital, is the expected rate of return on projects of similar risk.
In mathematical terms, the formula for net present value is
n
Xt
NPV = - I +
0
(1+k)t
t=1
Where Io = the initial cash investment
Xt = the net cash flow in period t
k = the project`s cost of capital
n = the investment horizon
The most desirable property of the NPV criterion is that it evaluates investments in the same way the company`s shareholders do; the NPV method
rightly focuses on cash rather than on accounting profits and emphasizes the opportunity cost of the money invested. Thus, it is consistent with
shareholder wealth maximization. NPV criterion is also obeys the value additivity principle. That is, the NPV of a set of independent projects is just
the sum of the NPVs of the individual projects. This property means that managers can consider each project on its own. It also means that when a
firm undertakes several investments, its value increases by an amount equal to the sum of the NPVs of the accepted projects. However, the simplicity
of NPV method is deceptive; there are two implicit assumptions. One is that the project being appraised has the same business risk as the portfolio of
the firm`s current activities and the other is that the debt: equity proportion in financing the project is same as the firm`s existing debt: equity ratio. If
either assumption is not true, the firm`s cost of equity capital changes and the NPV formula gives no clue as to how it changes.
1.2.2. The Adjusted Present Value (APV) Framework:
Projects with different risks are likely to possess differing debt capacities with each project, therefore, necessitating a separate financial structure.
Moreover, the financial package for a foreign investment often includes project-specific loans at concessionary rates or higher-cost foreign funds due
to home country exchange controls, leading to different component costs of capital. The APV framework al ows us to separate out the financing
effects and other special features of a project from the operating cash flows of the project. It is based on the wel known value additivity principle. It is
a two-step approach:
a)
In the first step, evaluate the project as if it is financed entirely by equity. The rate of discount is the required rate of return on equity
corresponding to the risk class of the project.
b)
In the second step, add the present values of any cash flows arising out of special financing features of the project such as external financing,
special subsidies if any and so forth. The rate of discount used to find these present values should reflect the risk associated with each of the
cash flows.
The adjusted present value (APV) with this approach is
Present value of
Present value of
Present value of interest
Present value of interest
APV =
investme
nt o +
ut lay
operating ca s h +
f lows
ta x shield
+
subsidies
n
X
n
T
n
t
S
t
t
APV = - I +
+
+
0
(1+k*)t
(1+id)t
(1+id)t
Where T
t=1
t=1
t=1
t = tax savings in year t due to the specific financing package.
St = before tax dollar value of interest subsidies (penalties) in year t due
to project ?specific financing
id = before-tax cost of dollar debt.
It should be emphasized that the all-equity cost of capital equals the required rate of return on a specific project ? that is, the riskless rate of interest plus
an appropriate risk premium based on the project`s particular risk. Thus cost of capital varies according to the risk of the specific project.
According to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the market prices only systematic risk relative to the market rather than total corporate risk. In
other words, only interactions of project returns with overal market returns are relevant in determining project riskiness; interactions of project returns
with total corporate returns can be ignored. Thus, each project has its own required return and can be evaluated without regard to the firm`s other
investments. If a project-specific approach is not used, the primary advantage of the CAPM is lost ? the concept of value additivity, which al ows
projects to be considered independently.
1.2.3. Incremental Cash Flows:
The most important and also the most difficult part of an investment analysis is to calculate the
cash flow associated with the project; the cost of funding the project; the cash inflow during
the life of the project; and the terminal, or ending value of the project. Shareholders are
interested in how many additional rupees they will receive in future for the rupees they lay out
today. Hence, what matters is not the project`s total cash flow per period, but the incremental
cash flow for a variety of reasons. They include;
Cannibalization: When a new product is introduced it may take away the sales of existing
products. Cannibalization also occurs when a firm builds a plant overseas and winds up
substituting foreign production for parent company exports. In this case company may lose
exports because it is supplying from its overseas production center. To the extent that sales of a
new product or plant just replace other corporate sales, the new project`s estimated profits
must be reduced by the earnings on the lost sales. However, it is difficult to assess the true
magnitude of cannibalization because of the need to determine what would have happened to
sales in the absence of the new product or plant. The incremental effect of cannibalization ?
which is the relevant measure for capital budgeting purposes ? equals the lost profit on lost
sales that would not otherwise have been lost had the new project not been undertaken. Those
sales that would have been lost anyway should not be counted a casualty of cannibalization.
Sales Creation: This is opposite of the cannibalization. For some firms, when they set up
manufacturing facilities abroad their overall image may goes up and sales in the domestic
market may increase. At the same time their local units may supply components to their
foreign units and achieve synergy. In calculating the project`s cash flows, the additional sales
and associated incremental cash flows should be attributed to the project.
Opportunity Cost: Project costs must include the true economic cost of any resource required
for the project, regardless of whether the firm already owns the resource or has to go out and
acquire it. This true cost is the opportunity cost, the cash the asset could generate for the firm
should it be sold or put to some other productive use. Suppose a firm decides to builds a new
plant on some land it bought ten years ago, it must include the cost of the land in calculating
the value of undertaking the project. Also, this cost must be based on the current market value
of the land, not the price it paid ten years ago.
Transfer Pricing: Transfer prices at which goods and services are traded internally can
significantly distort the profitability of a proposed investment. Where possible, the prices used
to evaluate project inputs or outputs should be market prices. If no market exists for the
product, then the firm must evaluate the project based on the cost savings or additional profits
to the corporation of going ahead with the project.
Fees and Royalties: Often companies will charge projects for various items such as legal
counsel, power, lighting, heat, rent, research and development, headquarters staff,
management costs, and the like. These charges appear in the form of fees and royalties. They
are costs to the project, but are a benefit from the standpoint of the parent firm. From an
economic standpoint, the project should be charged only for the additional expenditures that
are attributable to the project; those overhead expenses that are unaffected by the project
should not be included when estimating project cash flows.
In general, incremental cash flows associated with an investment can be found only by
subtracting worldwide corporate cash flows without the investment from post investment
corporate cash flows. In performing this incremental analysis, the key question that managers
must ask is, What will happen if we don`t make this investment?
Failure to heed this question led General Motors to lose business to Japanese automakers in
small car segment. Small cars looked less profitable than GM`s then current mix of cars.
Eventually Japanese firms were able to expand and threaten GM`s base business. Many
companies that thought overseas expansion too risky today find their worldwide competitive
positions eroding. They didn`t adequately consider the consequences of not building a strong
global position. Global investments thus must be considered on their strategic importance and
not merely on the basis of risk return analysis in short term.
1.3. Foreign Complexities:
David Eiteman, Arthur Stonehill and Michael Moffett have identified the following
complexities regarding capital budgeting decisions of foreign projects. They are;
Parent cash flow must be distinguished from project cash flows. Each of these two types
of flows contributes to a different view of value.
Parent cash flow often depends on the form of financing. Thus, cash flows cannot be
clearly separated from financing decisions, as is done in domestic capital budgeting.
Additional cash flows generated by a new investment in one foreign affiliate may be in par
or in whole taken away from another affiliate, with the net result that the project is
favorable from a single affiliate`s point of view but contribute nothing to world wide cash
flows.
Remittance of fund to the parent must be explicitly recognized because of differing tax
systems, legal and political constraints on the movement of funds, local business norms ,
and difference in the way financial markets and institutions functions.
Cash flows from affiliates to the parent can be generated by an array of nonfinancial
payments, including payments of license fees and payments for imports from the parent.
Differing rate of national inflation must be anticipated because of their potential to cause
changes in competitive position, and thus change in cash flows over a period of time.
The possibility of unanticipated foreign exchange rate changes must be kept in mind
because of possible direct effects on the value to the parent of local cash flows, as well as
indirect effects on the competitive position of the foreign affiliate.
Use of segmented national capital markets may create an opportunity for financing gains
or may lead to additional financial costs
Use of host-government subsidized loan complicates both capital structure and the ability
to determine an appropriate weighted-average cost of capital for discounting purposes.
Political risk must be evaluated because political events can drastically reduce the value or
availability of expected cash flows.
Terminal value is more difficult to estimate because potential purchasers from the host,
parent, or third countries, of from the private or public sector, may have widely divergent
perspectives on the value to them of acquiring the project.
1.4. Issues in foreign investment analysis:
Since the same theoretical capital budgeting framework is used to choose
among competing foreign and domestic projects, a common standard is
critical. Thus, all foreign complexities must be quantified as modifications to
either expected cash flow or the rate of discount. Although in practice many
firms make such modifications arbitrarily, readily available information,
theoretical deduction, or just plain common sense can be used to make less
arbitrary and more reasonable choices. Some important issues in foreign
investment analysis are discussed below:
Parent versus Project Cash Flows:
A substantial differences can exist between the cash flow of a project and the
amount that is remitted to the parent firm because of tax regulations and
exchange controls. In addition, project expenses such as management fees
and royalties are returns to the parent company. Furthermore, the incremental
revenue contributed to the parent MNC by a project can differ from total
project revenues if, for example, the project involves substituting local
production for parent company exports or if transfer price adjustments shift
profits elsewhere in the system. Given the differences that are likely to exist
between parent and project cash flows, the questions arises as to the relevant
cash flows to use in project evaluation. According to economic theory, the
value of a project is determined by the net present value of future cash flows
back to the investor. Thus, the parent MNC should value only those cash
flows that are, or can be, repatriated net of any transfer costs such as taxes
because only accessible funds can be used for the payment of dividends and
interest, for amortization of the firm's debt, and for reinvestment.
Exchange rate Changes and Inflation:
The present value of future cash flows from a foreign project can be
calculated using a two-stage procedure:
(1) Convert nominal foreign currency cash flows into nominal home currency
terms, and (2) discount those nominal cash flows at the nominal domestic
required rate of return.
In order to properly assess the effect of exchange rate changes on expected
cash flows from a foreign project, one must first remove the effect of offsetting
inflation and exchange rate changes. It is worthwhile to analyze each effect
separately because different cash flows may be differentially affected by
inflation. For example, the depreciation tax shield will not rise with inflation,
while revenues and variable costs are likely to rise in line with inflation. Or
local price controls may not permit internal price adjustments. In practice,
correcting for these effects mean first adjusting the foreign currency cash
flows for inflation and then converting the projected cash flows back into
home currency using the forecast exchange rate.
Political Risk Analysis:
All else being equal, firms prefer to invest in countries with stable currencies,
healthy economies, and minimal political risks, such as expropriation. But all
else is usually not equal, so firms must assess the consequences of various
political and economic risks for the viability of potential investments. The
general approach recommended previously for incorporating political risk in
an investment analysis usually involves adjusting the cash flows of the project
rather than its required rate of return to reflect the impact of a particular
political event on the present value of the project to the parent. The extreme
form of political risk is expropriation. Expropriation is an obvious case where
project and parent company cash flows diverge. If all funds are expected to
be blocked in perpetuity, then the value of the project is zero.
1.5 Summary:
Capital budgeting for foreign projects involves many complexities that do not exist in
domestic projects. A foreign project should be judged on its net present value from the
viewpoint of funds that can be freely remitted to the partner. Comparison of a project`s net
present value to similar projects in the host country is useful for evaluating expected
performance relative to the potential. Rates of return have to be calculated from both the
project`s viewpoint and the parent` view point. Once the most likely outcome has been
determined, a sensitivity analysis is normally undertaken. Foreign project returns are
particularly sensitive to change in assumptions about exchange rate developments, political
risk, and the way the repatriation of funds is structured.
1.6 Glossary:
Net Present Value: The net present value (NPV) is defined as the present value of future cash
flows discounted at an appropriate rate minus the initial net cash outlay for the project.
Adjusted Present Value (APV): This model seeks to disentangle the effects of financing and
considers only business risks of the project while discounting the cash flows.
Cannibalization: When a new product or project is introduced it may take away the sales of
existing products or projects. Cannibalizations also occur when a firm builds a plant overseas
and generate sales in the foreign market and lose sales in exports.
Expropriation: Official government seizure of private property, recognized by international
law as the right of any sovereign state provided expropriated owners are given prompt
compensation and fair market value in convertible securities.
Transfer Pricing: The setting of prices to be charged by one unit such as a foreign affiliate of
a multiunit corporation to another unit such as the parent corporation for goods or services sold
between such related units.
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC): The sum of the proportionally weighted costs of
different sources of capital, used as the minimum acceptable target return on new returns.
1.7 Self Assessment Questions
1. Explain briefly the basics of international capital budgeting decisions.
2. List out the complexities involved in foreign projects.
3. What are the major issues in foreign investment analysis?
4. How Adjusted Present Value approach is different from Net Present Value approach?
1.8. Further Readings:
1. Alan C Shapiro, Multinational Financial Management (2002), Prentice-Hall
of India, New Delhi.
2. Prakash G Apte, Global Business Finance, Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing
Company Limited, New Delhi.
3. David K. Eiteman, Arthur I. Stonehill, Michael H Moffett, Multinational
Business Finance, Addison Wesley Longman (Singapore) Pte. Ltd, New
Delhi.
4. Prakash G Apte, International Financial Management, Tata McGraw-Hill
Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi.
5. Ephraim Clark, International Financial Management, Thompson Asia Pte.
Ltd, Singapore.
Lesson 2:
International Working Capital - An Overview
Objectives:
After studying this lesson you should be able
To understand the basics of working capital management in international context
To know the objectives of international working capital management
To observe the complexities involved in managing working capital in international
projects
To know the issues involved in financing the working capital requirements of a
multinational corporation`s foreign affiliate
Structure
1.9 Introduction
1.10
Short-term Financing Objectives
1.3. Working Capital Cycle
1.4 Short-term Financing Options
1.5 Investing Surplus Funds
1.6 Summary
1.7 Glossary
1.8 Self Assessment Questions
1.9 Further Readings
1.3 Introduction:
The Working capital management is an integral part of the total financial
management of an enterprise that has a greater impact on Profitability,
Liquidity and Overall performance of the enterprise irrespective of its nature.
In fact, working capital is a circulatory money investment that takes place right
from the input stage to output. Management of working capital is complicated
on account of two important reasons, namely, fluctuating nature of its amount,
and a need to maintain a proper balance between current assets and non-
current assets in order to maximize profits. The importance of working capital
in an industry cannot be over stressed, as it is one of the important causes of
success or failure of an industry. Whatever be the size of the business,
working capital is its life-blood. Working capital constitutes the funds needed
to carry on day to day operations of a business, such as purchase of raw
materials, payment of wages and other expenses. For running a business an
adequate amount of working capital is essential. A firm with shortage of
working capital will be technically insolvent. The liquidity of a business is also
one of the key factors determining its propensity to success or failure. In,
India, paucity of working capital has become a chronic disease in the
industrial sector. This calls for a systematic and integrated approach towards
utilizing a company's assets with maximum efficiency.
Managing working capital is a matter of balance. A department must have
sufficient cash on hand to meet its immediate needs while ensuring that idle
cash is invested to the organization's best possible advantage. To avoid
tipping the scale, it is necessary to have clear and accurate reports on each
of the components of working capital and an awareness of the potential
impact of outside influences. Working capital is the money used to make
goods and attract sales. The less Working capital used to attract sales, the
higher is likely to be the return on investment. Working Capital management
is about the commercial and financial aspects of inventory, credit, purchasing,
marketing, and royalty and investment policy. The higher the profit margin,
the lower is likely to be the level of Working capital tied up in creating and
selling titles.
Working capital management in international context involves managing cash
balances, account receivable, inventory, and current liabilities when faced
with political, foreign exchange, tax, and liquidity constraints. It also
encompasses the need to borrow short-term funds to finance current assets
from both in-house banks and external local and international commercial
banks. The overall goal is to reduce funds tied up in working capital. This
should enhance return on assets and equity. It also should improve efficiency
ratios and other evaluation of performance parameters.
Management of short-term assets and liabilities is an important part of the finance manager`s
job. Funds flow continually in and out of a corporation as goods are sold, receivables are
col ected, short-term borrowings are availed of, payables are settled and short-term
investments are made. The essence of short-term financial management can be stated as:
i)
Minimize the working capital needs consistent with other policies for example,
granting credit to boost sales, maintain inventories to provide a desired level of
customer service etc.
ii)
Raise short-term funds at the minimum possible cost and deploy short-term cash
surpluses at the maximum possible rate of return consistent with the firm`s risk
preferences and liquidity needs.
In international context, the added dimensions are the multiplicity of currencies and a much
wider array of markets and instruments for raising and deploying funds.
1.2. Working capital cycle:
Cash flows in a cycle into, around and out of a business. It is the business's lifeblood and every
manager's primary task is to help keep it flowing and to use the cash flow to generate profits. If
a business is operating profitably, then it should, in theory, generate cash surpluses. If it doesn't
generate surpluses, the business will eventually run out of cash and expire. The faster a
business expands the more cash it will need for working capital and investment. The cheapest
and best sources of cash exist as working capital right within business. Good management of
working capital will generate cash will help improve profits and reduce risks. Bear in mind
that the cost of providing credit customers and holding stocks can represent a substantial
proportion of a firm's total profits. There are two elements in the business cycle that absorb
cash - inventory (stocks and work-in-progress) and receivables (debtor
This post was last modified on 14 March 2022